Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro keeps the 1053MB High over Montana at 120 while the GFS is further south and east over Nebraska. But temp wise the models largely agree on day 5.

[JayDT]

Look at 850mb temps up north. The coldest air is getting dammed up against the front range on the ecmwf

Is the cold air in the front range what usually sends the cold straight down to Texas?

[Brent]

dry and cold Monday, highs struggle to 30 degrees on the Euro

[Ntxw]

Look at 850mb temps up north. The coldest air is getting dammed up against the front range on the ecmwf

Is the cold air in the front range what usually sends the cold straight down to Texas?

Yes.

And holy smokes euro trended to cmc at 500mb up north

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like the Euro keeps the 1053MB High over Montana at 120 while the GFS is further south and east over Nebraska. But temp wise the models largely agree on day 5.

Its over 1044 into Texas at the same time though, it's oozing down the spine.

[JayDT]

Look at 850mb temps up north. The coldest air is getting dammed up against the front range on the ecmwf

Is the cold air in the front range what usually sends the cold straight down to Texas?

Yes.

And holy smokes euro trended to cmc at 500mb up north

Thanks.

And wow really?! So it actually kinda went with the CMC like some of us were joking earlier lol

[gatorcane]

Yeah 144 hours on the Euro and that core cold is oozing down into Texas. Looks really

[Brent]

the Euro

[Ntxw]

:froze:

the Euro

It can't be trusted. 80s next run

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro ridge stronger than the GFS, not CMC strong but stronger.

[Brent]

DFW below freezing all day Monday and Tuesday

Remember yesterday when DFW didnt hit freezing at all?

[gatorcane]

Euro looks a lot like the CMC at 168 hours also with a deeper trough than the GFS now. This might be a very cold 168-240 hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

OK, so we all know that all the models will not get the surface cold timing correct. Surface cold will be quicker than models reflect, also precip may be over running the cold so freezing drizzle or lt fr rain may occure Saturday. If the shortwave is stronger than expected then we could see some winter fun NYE and NYD.

[mcheer23]

Can't look at the run right now. What is it showing for Houston?

[Ntxw]

Can't look at the run right now. What is it showing for Houston?

Has light snow in Houston Tuesday

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The afternoon AFD's across the state are going to be interesting. Most of the offices were playing it conservative based on the Euro and now that it appears to be on board, we should see some of the better forecasters start making their predictions.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Front on Saturday right now. Bring it! Getting pumped at the possibilities

[orangeblood]

GFS GFS GFS...what a coup for this model - complete TKO of the Euro, the only model to maintain consistency and actually sense given the recent atmospheric signals

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile a balmy 37F in DFW as of 1pm. This heat wave coming to an end soon folks!

[JayDT]

Meanwhile a balmy 37F in DFW as of 1pm. This heat wave coming to an end soon folks!

Thank goodness! This heat wave was getting on my nerves already..