Texas Winter 2021-2022

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I’m confident on, is that the progression of the freezing line is going to have a huge impact on total accumulations in north Texas. It’s progression will likely coincide with the heaviest precip of the event, and the gfs currently stifles those initial accumulations by showing the freezing line lagging the precip. However, if the gfs were to match the icon on freezing line progression, bringing it through around 9pm, accumulations will bump up quite a bit. Hopefully as sleet instead of freezing rain.

[Tammie]

We’re in Sherman. Hubby just went to Harbor Freight and bought a generator. 20% restocking fee, but SO worth it! We did the same last year. Never lost power, but at least we were prepared. Best money we ever spent!

[Cerlin]

Second storm present on the 12z GFS for parts of the Red River and Oklahoma. Adds a couple inches on the whole thing. Reminds me of last year a little bit when there kept being snow after snow.

[wxman57]

Let's have a look back with the wayback machine at last year, 6 days before the event. I saved all of the model forecasts and precip graphics. Six days before the cold, the Euro was the worst of all models. GFS was the coldest. Note that Houston dropped below 32F the evening of Sunday, 14th and rose above freezing on Wednesday. Lowest temp was about 13F on Tuesday morning. GFS was way too fast with the cold air and had our lowest temp on Sunday vs. Tuesday. Canadian was too late and didn't have our coldest temp until Wednesday. Euro was saying "what cold air"?

Even on Sunday February 7th, a bit over a week out, the models were forecasting a major ice event for much of Texas, but the timing was different. ICON was off with timing & temps. This is all 6 days out, about the same time frame as now. Models didn't start doing a good job with temps until about 36-48 hours prior to the event. So, wait until Tuesday for more certainty.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb8Models.JPG

[rwfromkansas]

It’s frustrating that we always seem to be on the freezing line in DFW. I think the GFS is wrong holding it up, but it bears watching.

[BrokenGlass]

Second storm present on the 12z GFS for parts of the Red River and Oklahoma. Adds a couple inches on the whole thing. Reminds me of last year a little bit when there kept being snow after snow.

Just spent $450 at Tom Thumb.


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[Ntxw]

It’s frustrating that we always seem to be on the freezing line in DFW. I think the GFS is wrong holding it up, but it bears watching.

That ship has left the building for NTX. We have shifted to now 'how much' format .

[Ntxw]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has freezing precip starting in D-FW Wednesday evening. Heaviest frozen precip late evening to sunrise then tapering off and ending before noon Thursday. No accumulations noon to 6pm Thursday (see the 00Z Friday panel for that time frame).

[Haris]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

On tropical tidbits it has it in the 20s up there but shows rain, Lol. On weatherbell it’s dark pink. Algorithm is struggling Lol

[dhweather]

Second storm present on the 12z GFS for parts of the Red River and Oklahoma. Adds a couple inches on the whole thing. Reminds me of last year a little bit when there kept being snow after snow.

Just spent $450 at Tom Thumb.

You too?

[dhweather]

12Z GFS has freezing precip starting in D-FW Wednesday evening. Heaviest frozen precip late evening to sunrise then tapering off and ending before noon Thursday. No accumulations noon to 6pm Thursday (see the 00Z Friday panel for that time frame).

So no Cat 5 in the Gulf?

[bubba hotep]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

More consolidated system is going to pull more warm moist air in off of the Gulf, increasing the strength of the warm nose. However, a more dynamic system might be able to cool the column faster. Balancing act time lol

[bubba hotep]

Really hope these freezing rain maps don't come to fruition. DFW up through Memphis and all of Kentucky would be crippled.

[dhweather]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

More consolidated system is going to pull more warm moist air in off of the Gulf, increasing the strength of the warm nose. However, a more dynamic system might be able to cool the column faster. Balancing act time lol

With the strong CAA going on, its setting up to potentially be a significant ice storm, with some snow on top at the end.

[Ntxw]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

On tropical tidbits it has it in the 20s up there but shows rain, Lol. On weatherbell it’s dark pink. Algorithm is struggling Lol

[url]https://i.ibb.co/ySpY2z6/778-E0073-D092-42-D9-99-A4-8495-A0722-B33.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/72rLn0n/6-A3-F43-B3-594-C-434-C-8-F42-098-FBA7-F237-B.png [/url]

Yeah there's definitely some struggling with algorithm depending on what map source you use. Soundings ftw! Warm nose runs about 850-700mbish. That's why you can't just rely on pretty colors from an image, you're depending on the creator to depict.



There's a few thousand feet near the surface of well below freezing so I'd say more likely sleet.

[orangeblood]

Canadian attempts to close it off near El Paso. Also it is tightening up the precip shield.

More consolidated system is going to pull more warm moist air in off of the Gulf, increasing the strength of the warm nose. However, a more dynamic system might be able to cool the column faster. Balancing act time lol

Simplifying this - widespread 1-2” QPF amounts, maybe more….figure out the % breakout QPF wise b/w rain, fr rn, sleet and snow.

Any guesses at this point ? I’ll go 30, 25, 25, 20

[Ntxw]

UKMET lost its marbles.

[Tammie]

UKMET lost its marbles.

Elaborate please....

[txtwister78]

UKMET lost its marbles.

I think that's its real name