Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: DFW NWS is on-board in the cold temps coming in from the east. They have a graphic showing the setup for later this week. Now we just need this system to play along with some precip.

I think it's going to bring qpf out either way be it frozen or liquid. Question will be if it can kick out earlier or later but either way eventually it kicks out and virtually all models point towards a winter storm for the southern plains from it one way or another. This should've been a red flag to me a couple of days earlier when all models showed a digging shortwave with a +PNA underneath 500mb ridge. I mentioned how the models all had this feature but largely ignored it due to wxman57's meteograms of cold missing east!

[wxman57]

Wxman - quick question on the meteograms. If you are doing an extended model run that shows the temps in 12hr intervals, and say it is a runtime that will graph the 12AM and 12PM, does the graph not show how low the temp gets say at 6am? On the 0-192 hr I can see the temps at 3hr intervals, but on the extended only at 12hr, so if I have a 12AM/12PM interval, I don't see how high the temp would be say at 3pm or how low at 6am. Thanks in advance for the explanations.

If you want to see 6am (CST) temps on the extended GFS then you need to plot the 00Z or 12Z GFS run. The 06Z and 18Z runs depict temps at 12am and 12pm only. It's difficult to estimate the low or high for the day using the 06Z and 18Z extended GFS. For the 00Z and 12Z, the 6am temp will be pretty close to the morning low. The 6PM temp on the extended won't capture the high at 3PM - you may need to add 3-5 degrees to the 6PM temp to get the day's high.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is less cold for Houston next Fri/Sat but colder and wetter for Dallas/Ft. Worth. Similar to the ECMWF from last evening. Perhaps some nice freezing rain/sleet for D-FW Friday? By Tuesday the models should have a good idea what will happen Fri/Sat.

[stormlover2013]

Still plenty of time for the models to latch on!!!

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram for Austin. A nice cold rain/freezing rain event. At least it will be a quite short-lived cold shot.

[wxman57]

...and an extended plot for Houston. Highs up around 70 by early next week. Cold front by Friday, though. Next 2 weekends look iffy for biking. Heading out for a 5hr ride now. Will stop by the marathon course along Buffalo Bayou to watch some of the slower runners heading into downtown. Leaving shortly...

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville early morning discussion...will be interesting to see if the GFS and Euro trend toward cooler temperatures.

"WHILE HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60S. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
FRONT...AS THE COMPUTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CHANGES WERE SIGNIFICANT
WITH REGARD TO FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY.''

[TheProfessor]

12Z GFS is less cold for Houston next Fri/Sat but colder and wetter for Dallas/Ft. Worth. Similar to the ECMWF from last evening. Perhaps some nice freezing rain/sleet for D-FW Friday? By Tuesday the models should have a good idea what will happen Fri/Sat.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan19.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zjan19.gif

I like that run a lot .

[ravyrn]

12Z GFS is less cold for Houston next Fri/Sat but colder and wetter for Dallas/Ft. Worth. Similar to the ECMWF from last evening. Perhaps some nice freezing rain/sleet for D-FW Friday? By Tuesday the models should have a good idea what will happen Fri/Sat.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan19.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zjan19.gif

I like that run a lot .

I'd be careful saying that. I made some meteograms for various locations in NTX, ETX, and NLA that include the 850mb temps. While the 12Z gfs gets surface temps to below freezing, 850mb temps in Dallas are around 36F and further east around 40F. This could potentially be a huge ice storm.

[ravyrn]

It seems that Mom has taken offense at my declaration that it will not be cold enough to turn our rain showers into wintry precipitation this coming Thursday night into Friday. Instead of expected highs in the 40s on Friday, it now appears we will not get out of the 30s !

Time to re-evaluate winter precip!

Steve McCauley chiming in via Facebook.

[Ntxw]

I'd be careful saying that. I made some meteograms for various locations in NTX, ETX, and NLA that include the 850mb temps. While the 12Z gfs gets surface temps to below freezing, 850mb temps in Dallas are around 36F and further east around 40F. This could potentially be a huge ice storm.

It's way to early to be talking precip types right now if any. But you are correct the GFS shows essentially what is a bad ice storm with surface temps in the mid to upper 20s (the deadly zone) and above freezing 850mb temps.

[TheProfessor]

12Z GFS is less cold for Houston next Fri/Sat but colder and wetter for Dallas/Ft. Worth. Similar to the ECMWF from last evening. Perhaps some nice freezing rain/sleet for D-FW Friday? By Tuesday the models should have a good idea what will happen Fri/Sat.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan19.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zjan19.gif

I like that run a lot .

I'd be careful saying that. I made some meteograms for various locations in NTX, ETX, and NLA that include the 850mb temps. While the 12Z gfs gets surface temps to below freezing, 850mb temps in Dallas are around 36F and further east around 40F. This could potentially be a huge ice storm.

I live closer to the airport so hopefully its more like the last event for me when we got 4 inches of sleet. I don't won't freezing rain! snow would be the best though.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is dry and has a weaker shortwave and confines the precip+cold in Louisiana. Of notice is the models have been showing a 1048+ hp coming south from central Canada (not the ideal path) but it's there . Probably why the models have gone colder for Friday coupled with the system.

[WeatherNewbie]

I'm supposed to drive from Dallas to Austin on Friday. Here's hoping the ice storm does not verify. Snow... fine, ice... no.

[stormlover2013]

Models usually aren't that accurate till 2 days before system arrives!!!

[srainhoutx]

12z Euro is dry and has a weaker shortwave and confines the precip+cold in Louisiana. Of notice is the models have been showing a 1048+ hp coming south from central Canada (not the ideal path) but it's there . Probably why the models have gone colder for Friday coupled with the system.

Careful with the qpf depicted via the various operational models at this range and even closer. A good example of just how poorly the various guidance is actually performing was experienced yesterday in New England and the Great Lakes. The various qpf data severely under estimated what actually happen even as close as 6 hour prior to the event unfolding.

[Ntxw]

Careful with the qpf depicted via the various operational models at this range and even closer. A good example of just how poorly the various guidance is actually performing was experienced yesterday in New England and the Great Lakes. The various qpf data severely under estimated what actually happen even as close as 6 hour prior to the event unfolding.

Oh, don't worry I am well aware! I'm just posting model depiction for those who don't have access, by no means do I trust their qpf forecast it's often even worse than temperature forecast! It will be a few more days until guidance has a handle on it and even then it's a tricky situation. This 4 corners system and hp combo potentially has ice written all over it we've seen such a set up like this already and far too many times in the past.

[Portastorm]

I'm supposed to drive from Dallas to Austin on Friday. Here's hoping the ice storm does not verify. Snow... fine, ice... no.

Relax, WeatherNewbie. As long as I'm here (Austin), nothing will happen but a cold rain.

[Portastorm]

As wxman57 mentioned earlier, we probably won't have a good read on the late-week weather in Texas until Tuesday. The national forecast desk out of DC is talking today about a lack of consensus and reliability in how all of the models are handling (or mishandling) energy coming out of the NE Pacific.

Probably not too wise to get excited about any model scenario just yet.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

VALID 12Z WED JAN 22 2014 - 12Z SUN JAN 26 2014

...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... BUT
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO WAVER ON EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
EAST AND THE RENEGADE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST. THE ECENS
AND NAEFS MEANS /AIDED BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ MAINTAIN
THE RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST LONGER THAN THE
00Z-06Z GEFS MEAN DOES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... AND GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND MODEL BIASES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PAC NW/BC INTO EASTERN AK UNTIL
THERE BECOMES A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THIS PERSISTENT/IMPRESSIVE
RIDGING WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN. THE 00Z ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL WITH
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WAS USED TO ADD DETAIL TO THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

IN THE EAST... THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL AID IN BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AMID A SYNOPTICALLY DRY PATTERN.

IN THE WEST... THE MODELS AND EVEN ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN ALL BUT A
COMPLETE DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE HANDLING OF SPLITTING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC... YET AGAIN SHIFTING THEIR FORECAST SINCE
24 HRS AGO. LATEST 00Z ENSEMBLES SEEM TO CLUSTER NEAR A 00Z
ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE... BUT SPREAD REMAINS UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH FOR
A DAY 3 FORECAST.

[northjaxpro]

1048 mb Arctic High diving down from Canada south into the Plains by the end of the week. Very impressive cold arctic airmass coming late this week should it all verify.

Also, the shortwave diving down may be stronger than what is being depicted on these latest runs. This possibly could develop into a significant winter precipitation event for North and Eastern TX and even into portions of Louisiana come Friday into Saturday.