Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

The MJO looks like it is officially on the move and I'll admit that I was skeptical of the models showing an MJO pulse. Where do we go from here? MJO convection moving out of Africa into the India Ocean isn't really a Pacific jet retraction loading patterning, so that might be on hold or off the table. The extended jet can also be a loading pattern for the +PNA when the MJO gets going. Another thing, a +PNA during a PJE can set off MJO convection and the +PNA loading pattern can be for shadowed by a +PNA spike before the actual +PNA event. Not so unlike what we are seeing right now:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2baa2qVEAAytEd.jpg

Then the wave breaking:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2bL0azUsAA3Dli.jpg

And then the +PNA that Ntwx has been talking about rears it's ugly head. It seems like this kind of pattern may result in below normal temps but not bitter cold, since there is not really any cold air in our source region. This sequence of events certainly makes me less optimistic about February but luckily long range guessing is a fools errand and we don't really know what will happen.

+PNA alone is usually no good for Texas for excitement. I've never been an advocate for this phase of that index alone. There is still Pacific air mixing into that, -EPO hasn't established yet. A progressive +PNA is useless other than modest cold fronts and dry NW flow, unless there is a system in the southwest timing itself. Probably still in transition period late month.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Absolutely dumping here, 4" per hour rain rate confirmed on my weather station, tornado indicated thunderstorm just went over my gf place in the heights as well. Goodness.

I got .78" of rain in 11 minutes lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another storm with rotation is issued now i think, i actually saw this on the velocity feature on my ipad as it passed over me. Surprised nothing was issued then, its moved NE into Harris county.

Never seen a well defined hook feature on a storm in Houston like this before.

[wxman57]

Approaching 4 ft of snow at my home in southwest Houston - I mean 4" of rain. I forgot, winter ended January 8th. Streets are flooded and I'm unable to get to work. Nice spring storm. Seems to be tapering off now. I think Brays Bayou stayed within its banks, though totals neared 6" along parts of the Brays Bayou watershed.

That is some cold outbreak toward the beginning of February (according to the GFS). Highs may only reach the 70s!

[Kennethb]

He melts any chance of a snowflake, thousands of feet up in the air, at the "snowiest" time of the year for the south.

[Portastorm]

A wise weatherman once wrote: "Good thing we can't trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days."

[srainhoutx]

High water rescues underway across portions of Metro Houston. Stay home folks. Training storms overnight have left many roadways impassable from Wharton, Ft Bend, Harris and Liberty Counties on NE.

[orangeblood]

The MJO looks like it is officially on the move and I'll admit that I was skeptical of the models showing an MJO pulse. Where do we go from here? MJO convection moving out of Africa into the India Ocean isn't really a Pacific jet retraction loading patterning, so that might be on hold or off the table. The extended jet can also be a loading pattern for the +PNA when the MJO gets going. Another thing, a +PNA during a PJE can set off MJO convection and the +PNA loading pattern can be for shadowed by a +PNA spike before the actual +PNA event. Not so unlike what we are seeing right now:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2baa2qVEAAytEd.jpg

Then the wave breaking:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2bL0azUsAA3Dli.jpg

And then the +PNA that Ntwx has been talking about rears it's ugly head. It seems like this kind of pattern may result in below normal temps but not bitter cold, since there is not really any cold air in our source region. This sequence of events certainly makes me less optimistic about February but luckily long range guessing is a fools errand and we don't really know what will happen.

+PNA alone is usually no good for Texas for excitement. I've never been an advocate for this phase of that index alone. There is still Pacific air mixing into that, -EPO hasn't established yet. A progressive +PNA is useless other than modest cold fronts and dry NW flow, unless there is a system in the southwest timing itself. Probably still in transition period late month.

The SSW forecast should get Big Arctic HP's building once again....pretty simple, if the EPO pops negative again, look out below!!

[weatherdude1108]

I felt like I was driving in a monsoon or waterfall on the way to work this morning! All vehicles going 30-35 mph on Parmer, normally 60 mph. Hard to believe West Texas will be invading this area on Sunday. 50 knot wind gusts! That is 57 mph.

A weak shortwave passes well north of the area, but the strong upper
jet deepens a broader and stronger upper low to approach TX by
Saturday. Low level moisture is expected to be limited for late in
the day Friday to preclude deeper convection in the daytime, but the
increase in moisture and dynamics aloft Friday night may be enough
to promote some weak elevated thunderstorms over Central TX and parts
of the Hill Country. Light elevated precipitation remains a
possibility over northern counties into Saturday night as the broader
upper low continues to deepen over TX. The low becomes well formed
over TX and the Southern Plains by 00z Sunday, with drier air aloft
clearing rain chances west to east Saturday Night.

By 12z Sunday deterministic ECM/GFS solutions show the upper low is
rather deep over the Ark-la-tex and is still being deepened by a
strong jet streak with the GFS showing 140 knots on the backside of
the low at 300 mbs. Winds are unidirectional from from the jet stream
to the surface, and this should bring a formidable Pacific style
front with very strong winds mixing down from several thousand feet
up. The GFS shows that 850 mb winds ranging from 50-70 knots at 850
mbs which could potentially mix some 50 knot gusts to the surface. A
wind advisory at least is expected to be in effect as we get closer
to the this event. Should the stronger and better positioned GFS
upper low verify, High Wind Warning may be needed. Mid level drying
should also take humidities to near or below 20 percent and which
could lead to near critical fire weather conditions. There are weaker
solutions for the upper low, such as from the CMC, that will keep
confidence in the low to moderate range, so will continue to monitor
and suggest the potential for a high end level wind advisory in the
HWO.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... D&site=ewx

[Yukon Cornelius]

I feel like the same thing happens every year at about this time. A warm up and all of us hoping for more cold air, then next thing we know it's spring. It's a shame I lost my tropical hibiscus in the single digit temps. They would be loving this weather we are currently having.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I saw a picture on twitter showing the moisture feed coming straight from the Equatirial Pacific.

[Ntxw]

That mentioned -SOI is real by pressures (not small scale weather features) and the resultant pattern is all that rain and +PNA to come. That's how Nino's show cold in North America and the focus is greatly on the east. We'll have to wait for retrogression, unless there is a trough in the southwest to pull the cold back (which there could be Jan 28-31st period). Probably also the reason the MJO moved it's all related signals.

10 Jan 2017 1012.86 1004.05 19.79 6.64 0.58
11 Jan 2017 1011.77 1005.30 8.77 6.89 0.88
12 Jan 2017 1010.07 1005.70 -1.13 6.95 1.15
13 Jan 2017 1009.60 1005.70 -3.34 6.94 1.26
14 Jan 2017 1009.54 1007.35 -11.39 6.81 1.12
15 Jan 2017 1010.49 1008.35 -11.63 6.62 0.85
16 Jan 2017 1011.43 1007.65 -3.90 6.46 0.76
17 Jan 2017 1010.67 1007.50 -6.78 6.05 0.74
18 Jan 2017 1007.79 1008.80 -26.47 4.99 0.49

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good knowledgeable discussion from the HGX guys.




.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A stationary front was waffling over the inland portions of the
2-tiers of counties near the coast early this morning. At 3:00
AM the front appeared to be near a line from Wharton to Sugarland
to downtown Houston and then through south-central Liberty County.
An upper level shortwave trough was moving overhead and helping to
enhance the convection along the front. The strongest storms since
1:00 AM have been along the highway 59 corridor between Sugar Land
and Wharton. Still think isolated severe storms are possible early
this morning. However, locally heavy rainfall was becoming a
bigger threat. Some factors that are coming together for locally
heavy rainfall include moisture pooling along the front through
700 mb; 30 to 40 knot inflow at 850 mb; and a 200 to 300 mb jet
streak moving over the Hill Country and western areas of SE Texas.
Because of this, mentioned the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall through noon. The upper support for locally heavy
rainfall will weaken this afternoon; although, widespread showers
and thunderstorms will continue.

[Ntxw]

I saw a picture on twitter showing the moisture feed coming straight from the Equatirial Pacific.

[Portastorm]

Rain Miser (JDawg512) is doing good work here. About 4" of rain at the PWC in the last week and about 1.8" of that has fallen in the last 24 hours. Liquid gold!

Sure seems like El Nino at the moment.

[weatherdude1108]

Rain Miser (JDawg512) is doing good work here. About 4" of rain at the PWC in the last week and about 1.8" of that has fallen in the last 24 hours. Liquid gold!

Sure seems like El Nino at the moment.

Yes indeed he is! I have gotten 1.5 inches in the last 24 hours, with an inch on top of that with the prior days' rains. 2.5 inches give or take in the last couple days.

Of course I have standing water in the yard now, with no living vegetation to soak it up.

[orangeblood]

Polar Vortex starting to show up in long range on our side of the globe, aligns with SSW forecast. If true, Feb 2017 should be an interesting month....

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

A wise weatherman once wrote: "Good thing we can't trust the GFS beyond 3-4 days."

The only exception is when the long-range models indicate above-normal temps.

Made it to work. Hardly any rain down near Hobby. Ended up with 4.6" at home.

[Ntxw]

-EPO joins +PNA beyond 300hrs on GFS and very cold air moving south in Western Canada. I believe it.

Meanwhile DFW is over 4" of rain for Jan. Closer to May's average. Usually a good sign when you start fast with a surplus.

[Shoshana]

Felt like a monsoon driving home from work last night. I35 was crawling and there was fairly deep water on Howard where the storm sewers couldn't keep up