Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very light freezing drizzle this morning. Also, the forecasted high today was 48, overnight they dropped it to 40.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Joe Bastardi
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@BigJoeBastardi
3h3 hours ago
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Euro flip in EPO to strong negative leading to coldest 10 day run yet, #arcticgeddon Has the 0 day in ORD, 0 night NYC, 10 in ATL, 26 MCO ( my benchmarks for super outbreak) Only Dallas and BRO fall short but model notoriously underdone on Texas cold from noerth

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I like that Euro snow map. My house is centered in the 4 inch range.

**Edited to include link

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/texas/snow-depth-in/20180103-1200z.html

[wxman57]

It certainly does look like the cold air is coming, though there are considerable questions as to how cold and what (if any) amount of precip in the cold air. Moisture appears to be limited well inland (Waco to Dallas). Might be able to squeeze out a little snow for Portastorm in Austin again. However, I'm afraid that it is proving difficult to provide those of you in the DFW area any significant snow this winter. The winter is still young, though.

If the Euro is correct, then this event (Tue/Wed) would be much more of a travel issue than was the snow earlier this month with temps in the mid to upper 30s. Euro has temps well below freezing during the precip across SE TX, which would lead to freezing on elevated roadways.

[Ntxw]

Very light freezing drizzle this morning. Also, the forecasted high today was 48, overnight they dropped it to 40.

GFS has let go of significant 50s before frontal. I actually had a hard time pinning passage because most models pretty much keeps us stable where we are with the cold in place already. Got to look up at 850s which seems like a Sat afternoon/evening shift

[Ntxw]

NAM is running in colder for NTX come Sunday. By noon GFS has upper 30s while the NAM is about 10 degrees colder in the upper 20s.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very light freezing drizzle this morning. Also, the forecasted high today was 48, overnight they dropped it to 40.

GFS has let go of significant 50s before frontal. I actually had a hard time pinning passage because most models pretty much keeps us stable where we are with the cold in place already. Got to look up at 850s which seems like a Sat afternoon/evening shift

It will be interesting to see if the change to a high of 40 today busts colder. Since the cold snap that weve been having every forecasted high has. Some significant, some only by a couple of degrees.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man, the last 2 weeks and the coming 2 weeks really remind me of a classic Nino Winter. It's crazy we have managed a -SOI for so long.

[bubba hotep]

The EPS actually shows a chance of that following weekend being even colder than the first cold snap.

[Rgv20]

NAM is way quicker with the front than the GFS&ECMWF....Has Edinburg in the uppper 40s by Sunday Evening....Latest GFS&ECMWF has 64 and 73.

Temperatures yesterday were in the mid to low 40s with drizzle....just of the top of my head the GFS and ECMWF were about 10 degrees too warm down here for this latest cold snap.

[CaptinCrunch]

Very light freezing drizzle this morning. Also, the forecasted high today was 48, overnight they dropped it to 40.

GFS has let go of significant 50s before frontal. I actually had a hard time pinning passage because most models pretty much keeps us stable where we are with the cold in place already. Got to look up at 850s which seems like a Sat afternoon/evening shift

I could see a low 50 for the high Friday, but Saturday's high looks to be very early on in the moring, high's may just be mid to lower 40's and dropping from noon onward. Sunday's high across DFW looks to be mid 30's till dusk when temps drop to freezing. NYE thru Wednesday will most likely remain in the upper 20's for highs, upper teens for lows.

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff:

Strong arctic cold front to arrive on NYE…very cold start to 2018.

A cold arctic air mass developing over NW Canada will become dislodged over the next 24 hours and surge into the US. This strong front will arrive into TX on Sunday and blast off the TX coast Sunday evening. A very cold air mass will pour into the state from the NNE with the freezing line moving southward into SE TX Sunday evening. Areas north of I-10 will likely fall below freezing early Monday (NYD) morning and only warm into the mid 30’s on NYD. Appears even colder conditions will be likely on Monday night/Tuesday morning with the freezing line progressing all the way to the coast and possibly a hard freeze (25 degrees or lower) for areas along and N of US 59. Wind chills on NYD (Monday) may fall well into the 10’s over portions of the area and should those values fall below 13 over a widespread area a wind chill advisory would be required.

Precipitation:

Sunday Evening (NYE)/Monday Morning (NYD):

Post frontal air mass will initially be shallow in nature…maybe a few thousand feet thick…and moisture will run up and over the surface cold pool. This may result in a period of drizzle or light rain showers Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Surface temperatures will be falling to and below freezing by late evening north of a line from Columbus to Livingston and any light rain or drizzle could change to freezing drizzle. Accumulations are expected to be very light…less than a few .01’s of an inch if anything. Drier air moving into the region may negate any precipitation at all once the temperatures fall below freezing. Could see freezing of any puddles of water left by rains during the day on Sunday Monday morning as the surface temperatures fall into the 20’s N of I-10. Overall chance of any freezing precipitation N of the Columbus to Livingston line is around 10-20%.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Very cold arctic high pressure will be in full control of much of the nation including SE TX with very cold conditions across SE TX. The ECMWF and CMC models bring another short wave through the mean trough and across SE TX on Tuesday into Wednesday while the GFS shows a much weaker piece of energy. Both the ECMWF and CMC generate precipitation across a very cold SE TX air mass during this period while the GFS is completely dry.

Since this is still several days out and model agreement is poor at this time…hard to determine what if any precipitation will fall over the area and what sort of impacts may result. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Key Messages:

1) Very cold air will arrive in SE TX NYE with hard freeze possible N of US 59 by morning of ½
2) Cold weather protection of the “4 P’s” will be needed late NYE through much of next week. It will be cold enough to be concerned about any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems.
3) Light freezing drizzle/rain will be possible for a short period of time NYE evening/early NYD north of a Columbus to Livingston line with little to no ice accumulation currently expected
4) Residual water puddles from Sunday rainfall will likely freeze NYD morning north of I-10 which could result in a few slick spots
5) Precipitation is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, but the forecast is highly uncertain on how much, where, and what type.

[ronyan]

GFS is back with the 1054mb HP over the plains again. Should be colder than the last run.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is back with the 1054mb HP over the plains again. Should be colder than the last run.

For some reason, it doesn't seem like it is. In fact between hour 96 and 102, it has the entire airmass moderating 10 to 15+ degrees at the surface with a 1050mb+ high over nebraska/iowa. Seems fishy to me.

[ronyan]

GFS is back with the 1054mb HP over the plains again. Should be colder than the last run.

For some reason, it doesn't seem like it is. In fact between hour 96 and 102, it has the entire airmass moderating 10 to 15+ degrees at the surface with a 1050mb+ high over nebraska/iowa. Seems fishy to me.

Yeah I don't buy the surface temps on the GFS, and it still has us barely reaching freezing during the day on Tuesday.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is back with the 1054mb HP over the plains again. Should be colder than the last run.

For some reason, it doesn't seem like it is. In fact between hour 96 and 102, it has the entire airmass moderating 10 to 15+ degrees at the surface with a 1050mb+ high over nebraska/iowa. Seems fishy to me.

Yeah I don't buy the surface temps on the GFS, and it still has us barely reaching freezing during the day on Tuesday.

It is also very inconsistent at handling the pattern at 500mb as well. The disturbance it shows diving SE across the plains around 120hr seems quite a bit sharper at 500mb in this run than the previous, the location and strength of the low it has off the west coast seems to be different with every run.

[OKMet83]

5th -10th looks very favorable for trouble!

[wxman22]

Yes, while still dry the 12z GFS did trend in the right direction if you want a storm.

6z



12z

[SnowintheFalls]

Getting a pretty good brief snow shower here in Wichita Falls. It was definitely unexpected!

[Ntxw]

The irony of it all . GFS what was the coldest of the bunch, is now (relatively) the warmest of them especially with lows. Very cold vs super cold