Texas Winter 2016-2017

[dhweather]

Well, the positive thing here is that these gusty winds will be blowing the bleeping mountain cedar AWAY from the Metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Well, the positive thing here is that these gusty winds will be blowing the bleeping mountain cedar AWAY from the Metroplex.



https://s23.postimg.org/mqvndvxvf/gfs_m ... _us_11.png

To Houston

[bubba hotep]

Both the Euro EPS and GEFS are indicating that the +PNA will be short lived and then things will warm up as the pattern retrogrades. Then WCAN starts to load with cold anomalies and then there should be a discharge. Will it be another big positive tilted La Ninaish trough or a more MJO influenced active period with cold shots?

A lot will ride on if the stratosphere can flip the AO negative. Would be great if we can dislodge the EPO then lock it in.

Let's hope so. If this is just a recycled version of this winter pattern so far then there probably isn't enough time to reload before March winter death climo sets in. I don't know much about SSW but the literature that I looked at in the past seemed to indicate that there is still a lot of unknowns. I've seen some more recent research but haven't bothered reading it.

[gboudx]

Here's an update from jeff. I think the last part is specifically to wxman57.

Area within a brief break from upper level disturbances and rainfall allowing recent storm water to drain area watersheds and into rivers.

The next strong upper level disturbance will rapidly cross N MX tonight and eject across TX on Friday. Old lingering surface front offshore will back northward tonight and Friday, but likely not make much progress past the coast. Short range models have varying solutions on where this next batch of convection will occur with the majority keeping the most active weather off the coast across the Gulf waters. This seems most appropriate given the lingering surface boundary offshore and where the most unstable air mass will reside. Still can’t rule out a strong or even isolated severe storm Friday afternoon/evening along and SE of US 59. Main threat would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Will focus the majority of the rainfall along the coast and offshore, but would not be surprised to see some showers extend as far inland as I-10 Friday afternoon.

Next and final upper level system will intensify while crossing TX late Saturday. Influx of moisture looks meager still with this system which is a good thing considering the potent dynamics that will come to bear across the area. Will not rule out an isolated strong or even severe thunderstorm east of I-45 late Saturday, but think the best chances will be east of our area. Combination of warm air advection and increasing jet dynamics aloft over the region on Saturday will support widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Pacific cold front will sweep rapidly across the region Saturday night with onset of strong gusty winds.

Sunday will be a very windy day with strong 850 and 925mb winds forecasted across the area with plentiful sun to create strong mixing of vertical momentum to the surface. Core of 700mb wind energy is aimed from WC TX toward the coastal bend where sustained speed of 35-45mph with gust to 50-55mph will be possible for several hours on Sunday. Will need a widespread Wind Advisory for all counties and could filter with high wind warning criteria across Jackson, Victoria, Calhoun, Colorado, and Wharton Counties. Elsewhere across the area sustained winds of 30-40mph with gust to 45mph will be possible.

Dry air will certainly be brought into the area on the strong WNW/NW winds, but RH values are expected to remain around 30-40% most of Sunday and while fine fuels are dead from recent freezes, the higher RH values and wet soils should generally preclude fire weather concerns. The exception will be around Matagorda Bay where RH values may fall to near 20% by mid afternoon.

Recent warm period will gradually end by Sunday into early next week as more Pacific and Canadian air is brought into the region with highs and lows generally near normal or 40/60’s.

An extremely cold air mass is currently building in Alaska with surface temperatures running -35 to -50F. This air mass may begin to spread SE into NW Canada next week and the upper level pattern toward the first week of February may unleash this air mass into the US. A reminder that while it has been recently very mild…winter is not over.

[bubba hotep]

Euro weeklies are ugly...

[orangeblood]

Euro weeklies are ugly...

Yes they are but CFSv2 much colder for Feb and has been much more consistent than Euro

[Ntxw]

Shortwave mid to late next week has me a little interested. If first wave can get out of the way quick enough and not so positive tilted coming out. GFS had something 300 hours out some runs ago.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS was not a good run. Very different from 12z and 18z. Good thing it's still 300 hours out

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS was not a good run. Very different from 12z and 18z. Good thing it's still 300 hours out

It sure was a bad run. Much of the state gets less than .25 inch of rain over the next 16 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think its still jumping the gun on the event, i expect it to come back into the models in the next couple days. Would be nice to have the MJO swing back around to a favorable state by then too!

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Slight chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along and S of I-10.

High Wind Event likely on Sunday.

Very active pattern continues with rapid changes across the area. Strong jet stream disturbance will be rapidly approaching from NE MX today as a weak warm front lifts northward from the coast to possibly as far inland as US 59. Air mass south of this boundary will become unstable by early afternoon with as much CAPE as 1000 J/kg and a good deal of wind shear. HRRR and TX TECH WRF develop storms along and south of this boundary with some of this activity likely becoming severe. SPC just recently upgraded much of the area to a slight risk…but feel the areas south of I-10 have the highest chances. Main timing of this activity will be between 300pm and 900pm with the main threats being isolated large hail, wind damage, and a possible tornado.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common under this activity with isolated amounts of 3 inches. With PWS increasing to 1.6 inches along with a slow moving boundary in place and splitting upper level jet does certainly point toward heavy rainfall. While storm motions will be near 40kts, as we saw on Wednesday morning cell training can pile up totals quickly. We have been burned before in these types of setups most recently on Wednesday morning, so the heavy rainfall aspect is something that will need to be watched this afternoon/evening. While most watersheds will be able to handle this amount of rainfall, it is possible these storms affect portions of the area near/around the evening commute and would pose a street flooding concern with high hourly rainfall rates.

Weekend:
Forecast models maintain a powerful storm system for this weekend which is moving ashore the west coast at this time and will race into the southern plains and intensify. Expect scattered showers on Saturday under warm air advection ahead of this system, and if better moisture moves into the region than currently expect a few severe storms would be possible. It appears SE TX will lie on the extreme western edge of what will be a fairly significant severe weather/tornado outbreak across the southern US this weekend.

WIND:
Rare high wind event will commence late Saturday and build to maximum intensity on Sunday as powerful jet stream energy wraps into the rapidly intensify low pressure system. This will not be our normal gusty post frontal winds with some wind damage possible. 700mb winds increase to near 90kts with a 130kt jet stream plowing into the area Sunday morning. Clear skies will result in maximum momentum transfer of these very high wind speeds aloft toward the surface and winds will increase dramatically on Sunday morning and likely reach maximum speeds during the early afternoon hours.

Expect widespread sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts of 45-50mph across the entire region. Could see gusts of 55-60mph across the coastal waters. Winds of this magnitude for several hours have the potential to down trees and power lines, blown down fences, tents, signs, ect.

[wxman57]

It's getting a bit quiet in here. I notice the overnight GFS runs have no sub-freezing temps for most of TX over the next couple of weeks. I suppose that's the reason for the lack of chatter. At least we're going to get a couple of cold fronts that will drop temps into the 40s. No sign of any winter weather across TX, though.

[bubba hotep]

It's getting a bit quiet in here. I notice the overnight GFS runs have no sub-freezing temps for most of TX over the next couple of weeks. I suppose that's the reason for the lack of chatter. At least we're going to get a couple of cold fronts that will drop temps into the 40s. No sign of any winter weather across TX, though.

Euro EPS does have some exciting mid-30s lows for DFW before warming things up in early February.

[Ntxw]

It's getting a bit quiet in here. I notice the overnight GFS runs have no sub-freezing temps for most of TX over the next couple of weeks. I suppose that's the reason for the lack of chatter. At least we're going to get a couple of cold fronts that will drop temps into the 40s. No sign of any winter weather across TX, though.

Not so fast! We cold mongers still remember Christmas. Stepping down, enjoy your week of relatively mild sir.

[Brent]

is it ever going to get closer than beyond 240 hours though?

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

is it ever going to get closer than beyond 240 hours though?

I expect the next Arctic outbreak will be closer to the second week of Feb, but Canadian air may be within 10 days.

[ronyan]

The dreaded second week of February.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow:

is it ever going to get closer than beyond 240 hours though?

I expect the next Arctic outbreak will be closer to the second week of Feb, but Canadian air may be within 10 days.

The 12z GEFS is loading up

[northjaxpro]

I have not.seen the latest GFS runs up through 12Z today, but last night's 6Z run showed a massive 1056 mb Arctic High dropping south out of Western Canada into the Rockies and Northern Plains region out 300 hours. So, definitely something to keep an eye on as we head into the first week in February.

[Ntxw]

Euro doesn't go as far as the period we saw with the GFS but if the 580dm PNA ridge can hook up with the coming Aleutian ridge into Alaska, you will get at least another early Jan type blast. 570+ in Alaska never goes quietly and puts wxman57 on notice!!!

The week leading up to it will feature fronts that knocks us below normal for a stretch. A few warm days through this weekend and early next week, then mid Jan torch ends.