Early thoughts on Texas winter 09-10

[snow and ice]

Well, as of early October, we are seeing that the NINO Region 3.4 values continue to rise and now look like they may peak at moderate this winter. The western areas of the NINO regions are looking warmer than the east so the predictions by others of a west-based El Nino look good. That means more precip for us in Texas and the southern Plains which is a very good thing as we try to recover from this two-year-plus drought.

The PDO values which have been negative for quite some time are now rising into positive. I took a look at analog years which most closely match what is going on with both the PDO and the ENSO values and two winter seasons stick out as close matches: 1976-77 and 2002-03. Here is what they looked like:

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November-December of 1976 was very cold in the southern plains. The earliest measurable snowfall, two inches, on record fell in Texarkana on November 13th of that year.

[Portastorm]

Nov. 13th? Wow! That would be something.

I've been searching online for reports of snow/ice events in Texas during the winter of 1976-77 and couldn't find much. I do know that in the winter of 2002-03, we (Austin) had a 3-day ice/sleet event that included thundersnow shower. Only time I can recall here in Austin seeing lightning, hearing thunder, and the temperature was below freezing with precip. It was some event!

[CaptinCrunch]

Nov. 13th? Wow! That would be something.

I've been searching online for reports of snow/ice events in Texas during the winter of 1976-77 and couldn't find much. I do know that in the winter of 2002-03, we (Austin) had a 3-day ice/sleet event that included thundersnow shower. Only time I can recall here in Austin seeing lightning, hearing thunder, and the temperature was below freezing with precip. It was some event!

Here is a link for Snow/Ice events for NTX.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows

[Portastorm]

Thanks Captin ... that's an interesting list. I sure wish the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio had such a list accessible.

[snow and ice]

Thanks Captin ... that's an interesting list. I sure wish the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio had such a list accessible.

Yep, that 2" event is on the list that Captain Crunch linked:
"November 13-14, 1976: Widespread 4-6 inch snow fell over much of the northern and western sections of north Texas. The area covered was north of a line through Coleman, Hamilton, Fort Worth, Bonham, and Clarksville. Lampasas also reported five inches of snow with this event." I remember this event so well because it snowed 3-4 inches at the Texas-TCU game that day in Ft. Worth.

Portastorm, November-December of 1976 was the coldest 2 month period that I have ever experienced while living in Texarkana. There were numerous times that temperatures plunged into the teens for night-time lows during that period. We had school closings in Texarkana( I was in the 12th grade at the time) because of the cold, not ice. It was pretty dry for the most part because of a persistent NW flow aloft. However, there were probably 6-7 minor-moderate ice-snow events during those 2 months.

[arizonasooner]

I also remember the 1976 weather in North Texas as I was a senior at LD Bell HS in Hurst at the time. We played a very cold weather football game slightly before the snow hit and it was cold all weekend. Actually, the cold lasted until about February that year and (if memory serves me correctly) we had a severe ice storm in January that cost us a few days off school. Because of all the snow days, the last day of school in 1977 was actually in June. That is pretty unheard of in Texas!

[cheezyWXguy]

I also remember the 1976 weather in North Texas as I was a senior at LD Bell HS in Hurst at the time. We played a very cold weather football game slightly before the snow hit and it was cold all weekend. Actually, the cold lasted until about February that year and (if memory serves me correctly) we had a severe ice storm in January that cost us a few days off school. Because of all the snow days, the last day of school in 1977 was actually in June. That is pretty unheard of in Texas!

Heh, not anymore. School ends June 6 now.

[Portastorm]

Thanks snowandice and arizonasooner for those posts. I guess I'm no different from most of us on here in that I love hearing weather stories. Sounds like the winter of 1976-77 was on the extreme side here in Texas, at least north of Waco.

Regardless of how this winter shakes out for us, I am growing more confident that it will be more eventful than the last few. Yes, those of us in Austin and Houston had the "miracle snow" last December but that really was more of an event in Houston where they had accumulation. Here in Austin, it only snowed for about 20 minutes and that was it. Otherwise there was no winter.

[Portastorm]

One more thing ... JB and Accuweather came out with their winter forecast today. Those of you in north Texas, if you like winter, are going to love it.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

[southerngale]

Thanks snowandice and arizonasooner for those posts. I guess I'm no different from most of us on here in that I love hearing weather stories. Sounds like the winter of 1976-77 was on the extreme side here in Texas, at least north of Waco.

Regardless of how this winter shakes out for us, I am growing more confident that it will be more eventful than the last few. Yes, those of us in Austin and Houston had the "miracle snow" last December but that really was more of an event in Houston where they had accumulation. Here in Austin, it only snowed for about 20 minutes and that was it. Otherwise there was no winter.

Ahhh, the "miracle snow." Maybe if it starts happening more often, it won't be so much of a miracle. One good snow a year really isn't too much to ask for, is it?

Here's my snow pics from last year.

[gboudx]

One more thing ... JB and Accuweather came out with their winter forecast today. Those of you in north Texas, if you like winter, are going to love it.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

I'm going to dust off and polish my cleats.

[Portastorm]

One more thing ... JB and Accuweather came out with their winter forecast today. Those of you in north Texas, if you like winter, are going to love it.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

I'm going to dust off and polish my cleats.

Hilarious!

You know I'm with you, brother. Heck, I'm already excited. We're either going to get Lucy this winter or my backside's gonna be hurting big time by March.

[gboudx]

One more thing ... JB and Accuweather came out with their winter forecast today. Those of you in north Texas, if you like winter, are going to love it.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

I'm going to dust off and polish my cleats.

Hilarious!

You know I'm with you, brother. Heck, I'm already excited. We're either going to get Lucy this winter or my backside's gonna be hurting big time by March.

I already have an injured tailbone, so I'll choose my kicks wisely. I'm not buying any model run until about the 2 day mark. And even then, I'll be skeptical.

[somethingfunny]

The great thing about living in North Texas is when Lucy places the football in the distance we can just chase and tackle her by driving a few hours north. Why risk falling on your butt when it's guaranteed to snow so closeby???

When presented with a 50% chance of snowfall this past March I took matters into my own hands:

[srainhoutx]

I posted this on the "local Forum" yesterday morning. We certainly could see an interesting pattern developing for all of TX.

As we near Mid October, some early indications of what we will see across TX this winter are becoming a bit more clear. A weak to moderate El Nino appears to be taking shape. We actually are seeing the signs now with an almost persistant W and SW flow off the Pacific. Now what does this mean for TX in the future concerning this winter? Keep and eye on the NW Pacific. A blocking pattern appears to be setting up S of AK. This blocking would lead to a more Polar flow across the Artic into the Central US. With the Sub Tropical Jet being rather active in an El Nino year, storm tracks should be near Central and S CA or tad further S bringing abundant moisture from the Pacific (Pineapple Express). The Polar and Artic Jet Stream flow will begin to head S as we go further into the Fall and Winter Season. Snow cover to our N has increased since the beginning of October. This will aid in less modified cold airmasses as the season progresses. Areas of TX from the Panhandle through Central TX look to have repeat opportunties for wintery precip as the southern storm track taps moisture from the Pacific and the GOM. If we see a phasing (merging) of the Polar/Artic Jet streams and the Sub Tropical Jet near Central TX, then just maybe we will see some threats of wintry precip in our area. Of course, it is very hard to forecast with certainty what will happen in December or January as we often can't get it right 24 hours out. But with that said, things do look interesting with this setup in my humble opinion.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Sounds like we may have a real winter this year!

[arizonasooner]

So far it has been a pretty cool fall up here in TUL.

September was about 2 degrees cooler on average and October has been:

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 56.1
DPTR FM NORMAL: -9.9

And this is without today's -12 departure from average factored in.

We'll see how the winter plays out. I tend to think this cool spell will moderate shortly and we'll end up with an average winter and then another horrendously cold spring. That's how we roll in the southern plains....

[Portastorm]

Alrightee ... got my first glance at a model run with some real winter weather on it. The 12z GFS today suggests surface temps hovering in the low 40s to upper 30s with north winds and rain here in Austin around Nov. 4th-5th. Bbbrrrrr!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif

[Portastorm]

Frost on the pumpkin here in Texas? Hmmm.... the 0z GFS says maybe so.

[snow and ice]

It does look like Halloween night could be windy and cold.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9102100!!/