Florida Winter - Rain and above average temps!

[NDG]

32 degrees at my house this morning and I live at a NW suburb of Orlando.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS seems to be showing some very light "gulf effect" snow flurries or sleet pellets along the west coast of Florida tomorrow morning. I don't know if this will actually play out, and the current NWS offices are not forecasting it, but it is interesting to see on the model none the less..

[RNGR]

The 12z GFS seems to be showing some very light "gulf effect" snow flurries or sleet pellets along the west coast of Florida tomorrow morning. I don't know if this will actually play out, and the current NWS offices are not forecasting it, but it is interesting to see on the model none the less..

those are 850mb temps. surface temps will prevent that from happening im sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS seems to be showing some very light "gulf effect" snow flurries or sleet pellets along the west coast of Florida tomorrow morning. I don't know if this will actually play out, and the current NWS offices are not forecasting it, but it is interesting to see on the model none the less..

those are 850mb temps. surface temps will prevent that from happening im sure.

Forecasted surface temperatures tonight range from the mid/upper 30s at the immediate coast to below freezing just inland, so they should be cold enough to support winter-type precipitation IF there is actually any precipitation around at the time. As it stands now though, this appears to be only a very very slim chance type of a setup. More likely than not it will probably just stay dry overnight along the FL west coast.

[boca]

How often do you see this even though Laurell Oaks is barely in Florida.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[Burn1]

I was at Univ of Florida in Jan 85' when we hit a low of 10 degrees in
Gainesville...... I know because I opened up one of the local radio stations at 5am every morning and remember hearing the weather cube spout off lows around northern part of state.....Crestview and
Tallahassee were checking in at 7 degrees....

[NDG]

Another break coming for the Peninsula? Low and mid level clouds are approching from the west and northwest, they should be on top of us through most of the night, keeping us insulated, I doubt once again that we will get into the upper 20s as forecasted, at least for the Orlando area. Even with the clear skies right we are already a good 2-4 degrees warmer than forecasted for the current time.

[NDG]

Lucked out again last night due to the cloud cover with weak disturbance passing through, temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s across central FL with low 30s in the usual colder spots and low 40s in the usual warmer spots, Ensemble MOS were right.
Tonight, is a coin toss, operational MOS has us down to the mid 20s while the Ensemble MOS unanimosly has KMCO only down to 31, winds will stay up, so this could be a reason why not to see the mid 20s, but with clear skies and very cold arctic air coming down 20s is not out of the question.
Will update tonight when I see how fast temps are falling in actuality versus the forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep, much of central Florida definitely lucked out again. I doubt this luck will continue though. Eventually one of these nights a widespread freeze with temperatures sub-30F reaching the big airports probably is going to happen. Whether or not that occurs tonight/tomorrow night or sometime this weekend (or both) is yet to be seen.

[jhpigott]

PBI topped out at 55 degrees and has started to retreat (54 degrees as of 4pm). Any takers on whether PBI makes its forecasted low of 31?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight looks like the real deal for central Florida. The last few nights were just teases, but this one I think has potential to bring a widespread freeze. Skies will be clear, and though there will be some winds it doesn't look like anything will prevent temperatures from falling below 32F in many areas. At 5:53pm Orlando International was ALREADY down to 42F, meaning it will only take a drop of 10 more degrees for the city to reach the freezing mark. It is very possible this might happen prior to midnight, which is very rare for Orlando.

[otowntiger]

My Davis home weather station, which has been pretty accurate as far as temps go, is showing the temp at 7:00 at 38 degrees already here, south of downtown Orlando. I think 20's look very possible for the whole area especially outlying areas north and west.

Edit: well interesting it's back up to 40 here at 7:30. Must of had a little cold pocket move over or something.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My Davis home weather station, which has been pretty accurate as far as temps go, is showing the temp at 7:00 at 38 degrees already here, south of downtown Orlando. I think 20's look very possible for the whole area especially outlying areas north and west.

Edit: well interesting it's back up to 40 here at 7:30. Must of had a little cold pocket move over or something.

I noticed a few of the wxunderground stations did the same thing, showing a drop and then a recent slight rise. My guess is that the winds, not being completely calm, are mixing the atmosphere at times and creating periods of temperature fluctuations. As the evening progresses, I suspect that the overall downward temperature trend will resume across much of the Orlando area.

[jpigott]

PBI already down to 44 at 8:00

My thermometer is reading 38 degrees in North Palm Beach . . . we always read a few degrees colder than PBI, but not 6. Either my thermometer is off or it is due to our soil in the area being real sandy

[gatorcane]

Take a look at some of the Mesoanalysis graphics. Quite impressive to say the least:
Latest high res IR shows the cold layer stratocumulus clouds are just offshore the SW Coast of FL, but far west into the Gulf north of about Manatee County. It doesn't look like those clouds are going to make it onshore tonight, at least from about Tampa Bay northward along the W. Coast of FL -- no clouds for Central, East, or S.FL.

[srainhoutx]

WOW! I know some Conchs are freezing tonight. The all time record for Key West is 41.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
556 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

UPDATED FOR SHELTER INFORMATION

FLZ076-077-078-061200-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO...MARATHON...KEY WEST
556 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

...NEAR RECORD COLD WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

A REINFORCING COLD AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH
THE UPPER KEYS EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST WEATHER. THE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IN EARLY JANUARY IS IN THE MID
60S...BUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN
40 AND 45 DEGREES IN THE UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO ISLAMORADA...
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS NEAR KEY
LARGO AND OCEAN REEF. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NORTH
WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 MPH MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER KEYS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BURTON MEMORIAL UNITED METHODIST CHURCH...LOCATED AT 93001 US
HIGHWAY 1 IN TAVERNIER...AND THE ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...FAMILY
LIFE CENTER...LOCATED AT 83400 OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN ISLAMORADA WILL
BE OPERATIONAL AS COLD WEATHER SHELTERS FOR THE UPPER KEYS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 900 PM AND 700 AM...OR WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE IS BELOW 50 DEGREES.

ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES...
WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL FALL TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS OR PETS INSIDE. ALSO...IF
STAYING OUTSIDE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...YOU MAY WANT TO
WEAR SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING.

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm temperatures across the state..

Tallahassee - 24F
Jacksonville - 33F
Ocala - N/A
Daytona Beach - 34F
Tampa - 36F
Orlando - 36F
Melbourne - 33F
Fort Myers - 38F
West Palm Beach - 41F
Miami - 45F
Key West - 57F

[gatorcane]

looking at the temp at PBI, it still ended up about 5 degrees warmer than the forecast and it did not freeze in most of Palm Beach County. This would be the third night in the row that the models have been too cold on the temps. I doubt a freeze will happen tonight also.

In order to get a freeze in SE FL, the perfect conditions must exist and it does seem with possible freeze events over the past decade (at least), that one of those conditions has not been met. Last night the winds stayed up allowing for mixing. With Atlantic ocean temps just offshore running around 70F and the Gulf around 60F, that was enough to prevent the freeze.

[x-y-no]

Brrrrr!!

For the first time in I don't know how many years, I'm wishing I had heat. It's cold enough inside my apartment to fog my breath.

[otowntiger]

looking at the temp at PBI, it still ended up about 5 degrees warmer than the forecast and it did not freeze in most of Palm Beach County. This would be the third night in the row that the models have been too cold on the temps. I doubt a freeze will happen tonight also.

In order to get a freeze in SE FL, the perfect conditions must exist and it does seem with possible freeze events over the past decade (at least), that one of those conditions has not been met. Last night the winds stayed up allowing for mixing. With Atlantic ocean temps just offshore running around 70F and the Gulf around 60F, that was enough to prevent the freeze.

In the 20 years that I've lived here in Orlando the forecast lows during arctic blasts are almost always about 5-8 degrees too low. I can't remember a time during an arctic blast that the low temperature was exactly or below what was predicted. The last 3 nights have been no exception.