Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[amawea]

Good to see you here NY NJ PA Weather ! I'm looking forward to reading your input this winter.

[Portastorm]

Hey gang, I found this encouraging little snippet in this afternoon's forecast discussion out of NWSFO Fort Worth:

OF SPECIAL INTEREST ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...THE NATIONS FIRST
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE WHILE LONG FOR IT TO BE
OUR TURN.

[Ntxw]

Sign's of encouragement from the GFS. Hang in there guys, the heat will eventually make way!

200+ hours but sure looks crisp doesn't it.

[Tireman4]

Hey gang, I found this encouraging little snippet in this afternoon's forecast discussion out of NWSFO Fort Worth:

OF SPECIAL INTEREST ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...THE NATIONS FIRST
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE WHILE LONG FOR IT TO BE
OUR TURN.

Gosh darn it. Why do they tease us so? This has been a baked friggin summer. Good gosh almighty joe....

[NY NJ PA Weather]

For those of you in the Plains, the key to those Arctic blasts will depend on what happens in October. Keep an eye on the snow pack in NE Alaska and NW Canada in October as I expect an MJO phase 1 to have a major impact on the pattern via enhancement from the -PDO pattern. The faster the snow grows, the higher the potential for a VERY cold November down the Plains and potentially into the Great Lakes. Still debating on the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. That depends on the NAO of course. Keeping an eye on the stratospheric anomalies for that feature.

[DentonGal]

NY NJ PA - You're making me smile! Crossing all my fingers and toes for another chilly Texas winter. A repeat of the ones from the late 70's would be just peachy! Welcome to the board!

[amawea]

For those of you in the Plains, the key to those Arctic blasts will depend on what happens in October. Keep an eye on the snow pack in NE Alaska and NW Canada in October as I expect an MJO phase 1 to have a major impact on the pattern via enhancement from the -PDO pattern. The faster the snow grows, the higher the potential for a VERY cold November down the Plains and potentially into the Great Lakes. Still debating on the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. That depends on the NAO of course. Keeping an eye on the stratospheric anomalies for that feature.

I've been keeping tabs on the Northern Alaska weather for a month now. There hasn't been any very cold temps for that area yet. I have seen Point Barrow in the low thirties with some freezing mist but at 16:00 ALDST it is 51 degrees! Deadhorse in Northeast Alaska is at 49. Hmmm. Usually you see twenties up there by now.

[Portastorm]

For those of you in the Plains, the key to those Arctic blasts will depend on what happens in October. Keep an eye on the snow pack in NE Alaska and NW Canada in October as I expect an MJO phase 1 to have a major impact on the pattern via enhancement from the -PDO pattern. The faster the snow grows, the higher the potential for a VERY cold November down the Plains and potentially into the Great Lakes. Still debating on the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. That depends on the NAO of course. Keeping an eye on the stratospheric anomalies for that feature.

I understand the value of a more significant snowpack helping enhance colder temps in the Plains, but won't this ultimately depend on the Pacific jet and whether or not it buckles enough to allow this colder air to drain south? Negative PDO's usually mean a jet further north in CONUS, right?

Have I said we're glad you're here?! I think we're going to learn a lot this winter.

[amawea]

Well, the outlook isn't good yet for cooler weather. Look at this discussion for Alaska.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 PM AKDT FRI SEP 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH HAS DRIFTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED A BIT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IS POISED TO REBUILD OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND. AN OLD OCCLUSION WILL MOVE UP THE
EASTERN BERING SEA NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEP LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW-SE ORIENTED..EXTENDING FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO FAIRBANKS TO YAKUTAT...WITH INCREASINGLY LOWER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING THE
MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST GREENLAND
COAST. ALL THE MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE TO THE ALASKA
SIDE OF THE NORTH POLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE. HPC HAS TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF...WHICH
KEEPS THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF ALASKA THRU NEXT SAT..AND IS A
REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

]NORTH SLOPE...NOT MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS. AREAS OF ST/FOG
REMAINING THE MAIN WX PROBLEMS. TEMPS REMAINING FAR ABOVE NORMAL.WEST COAST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP ANY RAIN AT BAY.

INTERIOR...CONTINUED MILD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
TEMPS REMAINING FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

[NY NJ PA Weather]

Well, the outlook isn't good yet for cooler weather. Look at this discussion for Alaska.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 PM AKDT FRI SEP 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH HAS DRIFTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED A BIT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IS POISED TO REBUILD OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND. AN OLD OCCLUSION WILL MOVE UP THE
EASTERN BERING SEA NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER DEEP LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW-SE ORIENTED..EXTENDING FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO FAIRBANKS TO YAKUTAT...WITH INCREASINGLY LOWER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING THE
MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST GREENLAND
COAST. ALL THE MODELS TAKE THIS FEATURE AND MOVE TO THE ALASKA
SIDE OF THE NORTH POLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE. HPC HAS TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF...WHICH
KEEPS THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF ALASKA THRU NEXT SAT..AND IS A
REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

]NORTH SLOPE...NOT MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS. AREAS OF ST/FOG
REMAINING THE MAIN WX PROBLEMS. TEMPS REMAINING FAR ABOVE NORMAL.WEST COAST...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP ANY RAIN AT BAY.

INTERIOR...CONTINUED MILD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
TEMPS REMAINING FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

I expect this to change big time after the first week of October, maybe a little sooner. Look for the first real build up of a pure Polar/Arctic air mass to begin there with the EPO going from positive back to a negative state after the first week of October. Then look for a switch in the AO about 10 days later leading to a nice drive of Polar air down east of the Rockies into the Plains sometime between October 23 and October 28. This will like set off the pattern change for November.

At least that's my idea for right now.

[Portastorm]

Hey NY NJ PA ... acknowledging that there are a variety of factors at play when trying to guess how a winter season might unfold in the Southern Plains, what are the primary differences between how an east-based Nina and a west-based Nina would affect our weather during the winter months?

[NY NJ PA Weather]

Hey NY NJ PA ... acknowledging that there are a variety of factors at play when trying to guess how a winter season might unfold in the Southern Plains, what are the primary differences between how an east-based Nina and a west-based Nina would affect our weather during the winter months?

The key, at least for me, is the position of convection around the date line or 180 degrees W/0 degrees N. Naturally, regardless of orientation, convection is suppressed over the Tropical Pacific from the date line on east, the question is how much. In west based La Ninas the convection is suppressed the strongest around the date line, leading to a sustained positive EPO or a huge upper low over the Gulf of Alaska, which can lead to a zonal jet blasting from the Pacific Northwest right into the Atlantic. Not good for anyone that wants snow. However, when the La Nina is east based, the strongest suppression of convection is towards NINO 1+2, or around South America. Although convection is weak along the Date Line, the influence of the convection impacts the developing Pacific pattern. The result is a variety EPO pattern from negative to positive and even in positive EPO patterns the ridge/trough relationship can become displaced depending on other factors.

This is why the east based La Nina pattern tends to produce very cold winters in the Northern Plains (thus the potential for a surprise Arctic blast for Texas from time to time), Great Lakes, and New England and near normal temperatures from the Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley and Northern Mid Atlantic. Regardless of La Nina position though the Southeast is typically warm and dry, just a matter of degree of warmth.

[amawea]

Point Barrow at 31 with snow this morning, Deadhorse 30 and overcast. They had snow earlier. Anaktuvuk Pass is at 18! Yahoo. Even Fairbanks is down to 34 this a.m. They were at 64 yesterday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like autumn might finally make a showing in central Oklahoma starting this weekend! After well above normal temperatures over the last few weeks (more like August than September), temperatures are expected to drop to near or slightly below normal starting this weekend..

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

(Avg. High: 80-81F /Avg. Low: 58-59F )

I can't wait!

[cpdaman]

Ny NJ PA Weather great to have you here....could you answer the following for a snow lover please!!

NY NJ PA weather i was reading another pro-met say the summer's with a lower -pdo reading correlated more to a West based NINA. are you saying you don't see anything to substantiate this. they referenced that during a period of the victoria pattern (high sst anomalies running SW from north of hawaii to the philliipines) and a postive PDO the nina's were more east based....and that in -pdo's the nina was more west to east..(like we have)...and that the nina's here were more basin wide or west based.....they used data if i remember that was more post 1950...however they still did find a few examples of a negative summer based -pdo.

you said to look at pre-1950 records to see where this winter is going> so if you know where i'm going with the next question.

do pre1950 records show that - pdo winters have more.... East based nina's ?or do the pre1950 data for -pdo's (with west to east high SST pattern's) show the same western based nina's that were referenced (sorry not by year) above.

i do believe you...so what am i missing

[cpdaman]

the more i have been researching the more respected people (on various sites) are calling for either a central or west based nina....with a cold snowy winter for the pac nw...upper plains and upper great lakes and possibly Northern New england....

And a strong SE ridge....with a very below average snowfall for the central mid-atlantic SE'ward. Warm and dry for the SE.

Ny Nj Pa weather any new ideas or are you still leaning east based....

some are calling for a cold snowy mid nov thru christmas for the Northern tier and East coast...then a flip to record warm anomalies....will be interesting.

[NY NJ PA Weather]

Ny NJ PA Weather great to have you here....could you answer the following for a snow lover please!!

NY NJ PA weather i was reading another pro-met say the summer's with a lower -pdo reading correlated more to a West based NINA. are you saying you don't see anything to substantiate this. they referenced that during a period of the victoria pattern (high sst anomalies running SW from north of hawaii to the philliipines) and a postive PDO the nina's were more east based....and that in -pdo's the nina was more west to east..(like we have)...and that the nina's here were more basin wide or west based.....they used data if i remember that was more post 1950...however they still did find a few examples of a negative summer based -pdo.

you said to look at pre-1950 records to see where this winter is going> so if you know where i'm going with the next question.

do pre1950 records show that - pdo winters have more.... East based nina's ?or do the pre1950 data for -pdo's (with west to east high SST pattern's) show the same western based nina's that were referenced (sorry not by year) above.

i do believe you...so what am i missing

Well, I'll recheck my research, as it is always important to do so, but think about this physically. In a -PDO pattern you have cooler water developing in the Gulf of Alaska down the West coast. This colder water has to go somewhere, and that somewhere is towards the equator in the sub surface. It is no coincidence that as the data measuring the PDO fell like a rock in August that now the NINO 1+2 region dropped to -1.9, much cooler than the rest of the NINO regions.

Now as for correlations, the problem with going with a lot of data pre-1970 is that we don't have a solid hold on how atmosphere performed in all aspects. For example, you can have an ENSO state that would suggest warm, but due to developments in the stratosphere, the NAO tanks and the Eastern third of the nation stays well below normal. This is why when people use analogs to support their forecasts the first thing that pops in my head is, what other factors influenced these results? No circulation, oceanic or atmospheric, is a stand alone feature. We have to look at the developments of the pattern beyond just one state but many interacting states. Sorry for the rant.

As for the research above, I couldn't find much support thus far on what was stated. I'd like to know which years the meteorologist used before commenting further. However, physically we already saw what a cool phase of the PDO can do to El Nino last year. The PDO was near neutral through the winter from month to month, but SSTA clearly showed a cool phase of the PDO in play.

[NY NJ PA Weather]

the more i have been researching the more respected people (on various sites) are calling for either a central or west based nina....with a cold snowy winter for the pac nw...upper plains and upper great lakes and possibly Northern New england....

And a strong SE ridge....with a very below average snowfall for the central mid-atlantic SE'ward. Warm and dry for the SE.

Ny Nj Pa weather any new ideas or are you still leaning east based....

some are calling for a cold snowy mid nov thru christmas for the Northern tier and East coast...then a flip to record warm anomalies....will be interesting.

Well, I have no problem with the idea of the Southeast up to say Washington DC remaining on the warm side and dry. The question with the SE Ridge is how far will the ridge build overall. I think the NAO will be in a negative state rather often this winter and that will keep the storm track slightly further south than normal.

As for the state of the La Nina, well I would say that the changes in La Nina's regions better take hold fast, and I mean over the next 30 days. The significant drop in NINO 1+2 should not be ignored and it is an indication or trending east. Now, as I said before, this can change rapidly, which is why I'm hold off on issuing the official forecast until late October. La Nina is still intensifying and developing and I have no problem with some saying they think it will be a west based La Nina, this is a very viable solution.

For me, physically, I think a central-east based La Nina is more likely unless we see a significant change in the winds and oceanic circulation below the surface. Further, keep an eye on the MJO which is hinting at some interesting characteristics with LA NINA's influence on the pattern.

[Portastorm]

What a great discussion we are having already! I love it!! NY NJ PA ... thanks so much for being here!

I don't know about you folks, but I have some homework now. Below is a good link which talks about the relationship between the MJO and ENSO events.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/intraseasonal_faq.html#enso

I've read enough already to understand that an active MJO will ultimately mean so big storms for the Pacific Northwest in a La Nina winter. I've also read enough to know I don't know much about this stuff! But trying to use layman's logic ... if we have an active MJO and a stormy period in the PNW ... seems that the rainfall would eventually come back into the eastern Pacific, flow down the US coast to the equator and essentially further cool areas in the eastern Pacific and creating more of an east-based Nina, right?

[NY NJ PA Weather]

What a great discussion we are having already! I love it!! NY NJ PA ... thanks so much for being here!

I don't know about you folks, but I have some homework now. Below is a good link which talks about the relationship between the MJO and ENSO events.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/intraseasonal_faq.html#enso

I've read enough already to understand that an active MJO will ultimately mean so big storms for the Pacific Northwest in a La Nina winter. I've also read enough to know I don't know much about this stuff! But trying to use layman's logic ... if we have an active MJO and a stormy period in the PNW ... seems that the rainfall would eventually come back into the eastern Pacific, flow down the US coast to the equator and essentially further cool areas in the eastern Pacific and creating more of an east-based Nina, right?

Some what, you also have to include mountain torque factors and stratospheric anomalies. It's gets really complicated and that's why I prefer not to rush these forecasts. Saying LA NINA! Period, there's my forecast is a huge mistake. Just like when everyone screamed EL NINO, and just put out a strong El Nino forecast.