2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

[PTPatrick]

last few hours still coming down. Finally up to about 6.5 inches here in Denver. not much sticking to roads, but accumulating nicely on cold surface. Lots of variations

[SCMedic]

Up to 10-11" here. Still coming down at a good clip. Roads started to accum this AM but with the sun coming up they're slushy at most now. Even though the overnight period wasn't as expected, we're still in the 10-18" range that I forecast. That's not bad. The banding and dry slot made a big difference depending on location.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Send me some snow but make sure it doesn't melt

[PTPatrick]

Well, I just got home. Snowed all day, still flurrying. Wasn't such an epic fail after all, except that barely anything got to accum on roads...but even with the 2009 snows most major roads were clear by lunchtime. In any case...ended with 8-9 inches around here which is more than i was expecting after waking up to so little. So not a total fail. Good start to the snow season.

[Dencolo]

Interesting storm. If you would have told me two days ago that Greeley would get 12.5" of snow, I'd expect about 20" at my place on the SW side of the metro area. Instead I got about 6" to 7". Places like Castle Rock and Parker got about that or less. Complete opposite of what typically happens. Wouldn't be that surprising, but they were not calling for that.

[Dencolo]

BTW, our high temp today was 32F, just after midnight last night. Lowest high temp ever for this date was 31F, so we just missed a record low max temp.

Not bad, considering below is what we saw 2 days ago! Tomorrow will be a cold morning in the low teens.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
231 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2011

...DENVER BREAKS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 24TH...

AT 227 PM MDT THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REACHED 80 DEGREES. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 79 DEGREES SET IN 1999 AND
PREVIOUS YEARS.

[SCMedic]

Very similar setup showing in a number of models for next Weds. Cooler ground temps would make this one more of a pain if it pans out.

[SCMedic]

Models continue to latch onto a snowy Tues even/Weds morning. Looking like we could see more snow than this past week. Stay tuned!

[PTPatrick]

Looks like gfs backed off today. Looks really weak...afternoon disc didn't seem super optimistic. We'll see

[SCMedic]

Looks like we'll get another 6" late Tues/Weds AM but the Friday night storm is really starting to look interesting!

[VoodooCadillac]

I've been on the go, and late to report......but we ended up with a very wet, heavy 10" on my backyard picnic table in Old Town Fort Collins. Spent the better part of a day dragging tree limbs to the street for the City to pick up. Looks like two more shots coming this week!

[SCMedic]

Looks like 3-6" for Weds AM. Friday is still too far out to make a call. Stormy 10 days starting.

[PTPatrick]

Tonight's 0z models are in. Both look wetter in general with the Wednesday system,this looks like another northern community storm favoring ft Collins and greely on gfs...nam seems the opposite with less precipitation in those areas.

So far the weekend system seems to be going to far north for upslope... Looks all downslope as the low goes right across the metro and then ne into Nebraska...that's not a good path for sno was of the divide

[PTPatrick]

So I haven't been particularly excited about this storm. Perhaps because the last one was such a non-event. However, as of 6z this am the models are trending wetter. Now showing up to around .75-1inch on GFS and nam....Canadian less impressive with more qpf north. Initially felt this to be another northern community favored but now looks like metro should get socked. I tnk most areas south and east of boulder will out do last week by a couple inches...north of there is more of a crap shoot as always, but I think those areas will be similar. The main differences I'm see: 1)jet a hair more south 2) this will be much faster will similar qpf amounts 3) combined with likely initially colder temps as well as colder temps during the storm, and 4) should be better dendritic snow growth earlier with this one so perhaps a fluffier snow that last week. So I suspect we will go to bed again with nothing but wake up to pretty heavy snow that will do a better job of road sticking now that we have had some good cold nights. Overall I'm optimistic. Having said all this, think it's strange that they went with WWA instead of A WSW...given that they are forecasting 5-12 across the metro, and that I'm guessing impact will be greater. I thinknif we really get near an inch of qpf we could surpass a foot in the metro, but that's hard to say right now, and insuspect after being burned last week the nws is playing it close to the cuff. They still have all day to watch models so....

[PTPatrick]

Got a quick peak at the 12z'z... GFS slightly drier with just around .5-.75 inch, NAM has a good focus of near an inch over the metro.SO middle of the road .75 inch qpf seems reasonable. That could equate to around 8-12 inches for the metro depending on elevation, which side of town etc. Lets hope the jet action gets in there and drives up the snowfall rates :-D incedentally, DIA had 8.5 with last storm out of about .6 inches of liquid.

[SCMedic]

I'm calling 8-12" starting around sundown. Better snow ratios, colder air, and .75-1" of QPF should equal a good accum this time. Roads will be crappy.

[denversnowlover]

So quick question What model seems to forecast the Denver area storms the best. It almost seems the NAM is pretty good at it but maybe thats cause I am wanting a large snow storm and NAM is looking a lot better for that!

[SCMedic]

NAM has been good this year. It really depends. Look at the consensus solutions between all the models. Not sure how much you know about our local climatology, so forgive me if you know this, but a storm track 100 miles north or south can be the difference between dry and windy and 2' of snow.

[denversnowlover]

Ya last winter was not my favorite thing haha; it was my first winter here in colorado but must say I enjoyed the cold spells !! The amount of snow was so little last winter. Although its another La Nina year, I have read that the "Pineapple Express" can cause temporary El Nino conditions here in Colorado. I hope that is true we need to make up for last winter haha.

[PTPatrick]

Well they upgraded to WSW for the metro blizzard for Palmer divide. Thought that WWA was a bit strange. Either way...I like NAM fir oragraphically favored snows more than GFS in general. It always seems to better placement for origraphic qpf bullseyes. So Im imclined to leaned toward higher end , .75-.8 inches , or roughly 8-12 metro. I think today is staying colder than expectes. Still very chilly this AM, no sun...and I doubt we warm much more with more cloudiness moving in by evening. Overall this just seemsvto look like bigger one for Denver than last week.