SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[Jagno]

Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TORNADO WATCH 694 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-252200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0694.121225T1520Z-121225T2200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1012 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF SHEPHERD TO OAK RIDGE NORTH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND TO 6 MILES EAST OF THE
WOODLANDS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHEPHERD...PATTON VILLAGE...
WOODBRANCH...SPLENDORA...CHATEAU WOODS...PLUM GROVE...WOODLOCH...
NORTH CLEVELAND AND GOODRICH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CST

* AT 1016 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHEPHERD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DIBOLL TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...COLDSPRING AND SEVEN OAKS.

[vbhoutex]

4th freeze of the season here at the house with 30.6F under strong winds and mostly cloudy most of the night. Tonight will probably bring upper 20s to most of the area with a few low and mid 20s in the N and NE areas of SE TX. Looking down the road a little here is a snippet from Jeff's morning email:

Progressive weather pattern over the southern US to continue.

Winds still coming down after the powerhouse wind event yesterday afternoon/evening with frequent gust to 40-50mph…for the second time in less than a week. Deep surface cyclone now moving into the OH Valley with skies clearing from WSW to ENE across SE TX under continued cold air advection pattern with temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the lower 20’s. Upstream air mass passing over the snow covered plains of N TX and OK will result in little modification today as solar energy goes into snow melt instead of warming the near surface air. With this in mind and NW winds continuing through much of the day, highs will only climb into the mid to upper 40’s under mainly sunny skies. Cold tonight as winds go nearly calm and skies remain clear…although could see some high level cirrus clouds pass over the region…but these rarely prevent cooling. Most areas will see lows in the 26-32 range except for the typical warmer spots (inside the Beltway and along the coast).

Coastal trough begins to take shape off the coastal bend early Thursday with a rapid increase in cloud cover as moisture is brought northward over top of the retreating cold surface dome. By afternoon isentropic lift may be enough to produce a few showers across the area. Highs will warm into the 50’s as winds turn more ESE on Thursday. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next powerful cold front. Surface trough will lift NE along the coast with light to moderate showers streaming northward out of the Gulf. Cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Current thinking is that warm unstable air mass will remain out over the Gulf waters and the warm front will not move inland and this should negate a severe weather threat…however elevated instability may be enough to produce a few strong storms on the frontal boundary.

Once again windy behind this front, but not the kind of winds we saw yesterday. Should see NW 15-25mph Friday night under strong cold air advection. I am tempted to go a little colder than guidance for the weekend with the snow pack lingering to our north and fresh Canadian air pouring down the plains across this snow pack…however some degree of melting will occur between now and Friday night. Will stick with highs in the 50’s on Saturday under sunny skies and a light freeze similar to tonight on Sunday morning.

New Year’s Storm System:

Attention will quickly focus on another potential high impact storm system starting late Sunday and continuing through New Year’s Day. Model are having a tough time with this feature as with the Christmas Day event with the GFS more open and progressive versus the ECMWF and CMC more closed off and stronger. Given the current highly progressive flow across the US, will side toward the GFS, but the system may be somewhat slower than what this model shows. Anyhow the track of the core of the upper low/trough looks to be further south than the Christmas system which brings the threat for winter weather deeper into TX and suppresses the possible warm front closer to the coast. Parameters look to be coming together for another bout of severe weather across the area…possibly more focused deeper into the region than the past event yesterday. Still a ways off and things will no doubt change between now an early next week.

[CajunMama]

I slept through the worst of the weather in the early morning hours. Then we were celebrating Christmas with my husbands family later in the afternoon and missed the bad weather then! Santa was good to us as we were spared from the storms and tornadoes that were forcast for us. Phew!

[Jagno]

CM, we were blessed indeed this Christmas season. Suppose it would be too much to ask for a repeat of the blessing. LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was kind of a bust for all of south la for the most part. Local news tried to play it off by saying how many parishes were under a severe t storm or tornado warning yesterday at some point. But only 2 weak tornados around the entire viewing area. Had two around here just last week with worse damage when there was a minimal threat. Btw only recieved a quarter inch of rain at the house for the entire event.

[vbhoutex]

It was 32f when I went to bed last night. So we had our 5th freeze of the season. Sometime during the night the clouds and moisture started to move in and it was 37f when I got up. Now expecting/hoping for some rain to develop this afternoon, hopefully after my Mom leaves to fly back to FL.

Here is Jeff Lindner's morning email:

Active pattern in place and will continue for the next several days.

Most locations fell to and below freezing before midnight with IAH falling to 31. After midnight clouds rolled in from the SSW and winds increased from the ENE raising temperatures into the upper 30’s and low 40’s currently. Moisture return is in response to the next storm system which will move across TX on Friday. CRP radar shows light echoes already developing over the Gulf waters south of Matagorda Bay and this is likely the start of drizzle and light rain which will spread northward today. Meso scale short term models are in good agreement that light rain will move inland from the Gulf this afternoon as the low levels continue to moisten and moisture increases ahead of a warm front/coastal trough.

Upper level trough will swing quickly across the state on Friday with another strong cold front pushing across the area. Moisture return ahead of this front will be plentiful to produce a round of showers and thunderstorms on Friday along the boundary. Rainfall today through tonight will be mainly light with higher amounts expected on Friday as rainfall becomes slightly more convective in nature. Do not expect severe weather with this system, but a few strong storms will be possible east of I-45 where instability will be highest.

Strong cold air advection will onset behind the front on Friday with temperatures falling quickly into the 40’s after sunset under strong NW winds. Winds will be in the 15-20mph this time around instead of the 40-50mph we saw two days ago. Clear and cold conditions over the weekend with highs in the 50’s and lows near freezing.

New Year’s Storm System:

Main focus is quickly turning to a projected powerful storm system to affect the state from late Sunday through Wednesday of next week. GFS and CMC are the more progressive of the models showing an open trough passing across the state on Wednesday with most of the weather on Monday and Tuesday, while the ECMWF is much slower and cut off with the system and shows an extended period of cold wet weather through much of next week. Pattern of late has been highly progressive and the GFS has a good deal of support from its ensemble members, so will side with the faster models. Moisture begins to return from the western Gulf in earnest late Sunday and the combined effects of the moisture return and lift over a warm front south of the area will support light rain developing and spreading inland from the coastal bend area. Models are suggesting some really tropical type moisture pushes into the area late Monday with PWS values nearing record 2.0 inch levels for early January. Think this is likely overdone to some degree, but a lot of moisture looks to move into the area regardless so the threat for widespread rainfall…some heavy…will be possible starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Could see some severe weather also with a warm front over the region, but it is too early for specifics on that considering the event is still about 4-5 days away.

Note:

NWS survey teams investigated the tornado damage in Houston County from Christmas morning and determined the rating as EF-3 damage with estimated winds of 150mph, a path length of 7 miles and path width of 300 yards. The tornado completely destroyed two structures and heavily damaged others in the area. Most of the damage along the path was in the EF-1 and EF-2 range. The tornado was on the ground for roughly 10 minutes.

[Jagno]

Woke up to cool but beautiful sunshine this morning however it was short lived. It's now humid with dark dismal cloud cover. I'd hung my sheets on the line to dry and 4 hours later they were still damp so I brought them in and put them in the dryer. Forecast calling for 70% rain tommorrow with a high of 70º then back down to 44º tommorrow night. No wonder everyone is getting sick.

[southerngale]

The storms were pretty wild on Christmas, but it definitely could have been worse. Many thousands in the Beaumont area didn't get electricity until yesterday (Entergy reported 100,000 total outages in the storm) Roofs were ripped off an apartment complex, the roof collapsed at a Baskin Robbins, trees fell, hitting houses, fences, etc. The winds were definitely the worst of it and the line moved quicker than originally anticipated.
Weatherbug recorded 57mph wind gust a few miles from me and I wouldn't be surprised if I saw similar or even higher at my house. Everything in my yard was tossed around and I found something two yards over. My basketball goal ended up on my car. Lots of debris scattered about... I am thankful it wasn't worse, though, as we still had a great Christmas. Others were hit really hard.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's morning email:

Rain is pushing offshore and into Louisiana this morning as the coastal surface trough moves ENE away from SE TX.

Overnight rainfall totals averaged generally less than .50 of an inch over much of the area with higher amounts .50 to 1 inch mainly east of I-45. Fog and low clouds continue to cover the entire region ahead of another strong cold front currently entering C TX. This front will reach the coast by late afternoon bring gusty NW winds and falling temperatures along with clearing of the fog and clouds out of the area.

Cold tonight even with the wind staying gusty with lows in the 30-35 range across the area and highs on Saturday only in the low to mid 50’s under sunny skies. Light freeze most areas Sunday morning 29-32 with highs back into the upper 50’s.

Changes begin to take shape on Sunday afternoon as the next powerful storm system in this progressive split flow pattern enters into the SW US. Moisture will surge northward from S TX on Sunday as a warm front begins to advance northward. Expect a rapid influx of low clouds similar to yesterday with light rain and fog advancing northward ahead of the warm front on Sunday evening. Moisture values really ramp up Sunday night with very healthy PWS forecasted into the region by early Monday…nearing record levels for this time of year. Large scale lift will be increasing late Sunday into most of Monday as the upper trough advances eastward into the southern plains and surface low pressure develops along the warm front and moves up the coast. Still too early to determine if and/or how far inland the warm front may penetrate, but areas along this feature could have a severe weather threat. As suspected yesterday the more progressive GFS model was the correct line of thinking with this system as the ECMWF has trended in that direction. With the more progressive solution, expect widespread rains on Monday followed by a line of thunderstorms Monday night/early Tuesday. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes along with very heavy rainfall.

This leading short wave will force a strong cold front through the region on New Year’s Day, but the main upper trough looks to linger back SW of the area into N MX keeping a SW flow aloft over the surface cold dome…an overrunning pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF generally agree with this thinking, but the ECMWF is more closed off with the main upper trough and colder compared to the GFS. Do not think clouds will clear out much behind the frontal passage early New Year’s Day and it is possible that a very cold rain could develop on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Will need to keep a close eye on low temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday mornings for our N and W counties as they will be nearing freezing with some chance of potential rain.

[LaBreeze]

Any changes in the forecast, folks? I suppose just rainfall.

[vbhoutex]

Not seeing anything yet that suggests the possibility of anything more than cold rain for our areas. Sigh! OCMs all still calling for a freeze in the am. It is going to have to clear out for that to happen and it hasn't yet. Temps holding around 40f around Houston metro. Can you say get your heads out of the models and look out the window?? Geez!! My wife is starting to give me the because every time they come on and say it will freeze I am saying just that!! LOL!!

[Jagno]

I was saying the same thing about this heavy cloud cover. I don't see how it can drop into the twenties but I'm no expert by any means. It was extremely cold today. I was out in the middle of open fields for about 4 hours where my middle son is building a house. I had under armour, a thick quilted coat and a leather one on top of that and I could still feel the cold wind penetrating.

[vbhoutex]

Not seeing anything yet that suggests the possibility of anything more than cold rain for our areas. Sigh! OCMs all still calling for a freeze in the am. It is going to have to clear out for that to happen and it hasn't yet. Temps holding around 40f around Houston metro. Can you say get your heads out of the models and look out the window?? Geez!! My wife is starting to give me the because every time they come on and say it will freeze I am saying just that!! LOL!!

It did clear after 1 am and the temp started falling. Ended up with 30f for a low and the coldest since January. We're up to 36.7f with clouds so I don't see us making the 50's like the current progs. Same thing as yesterday basically.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's morning email says we're gonna be wet and cold. We do need the rain, but does it have to be a cold rain?

Extended period of cold wet weather likely.

Changes underway this morning as large slow moving upper level trough drops southward west of CA toward Baja as lead short wave is starting to move eastward over MX. At the surface, features are starting to respond to the approaching trough over the western US with coastal surface warm front and surface low beginning to take shape off the lower TX coast. ENE winds have increased this morning north of the warm front which is well offshore the upper TX coast. Mid level cloud deck is advancing ENE in the SW flow aloft and this deck will thicken and lower with time today as warm moist air is lifted over the top of the retreat surface cold dome. Moisture return begins in earnest tonight and expect a rapid decline in conditions across the area as the low levels saturate. Will start to see fog and drizzle/light rain develop over the Gulf waters and shift inland tonight as the warm front nears the coast.

On Monday the first short wave ejects across the plains with the surface warm front likely moving just inland from the coast…possibly as far north as I-10 by Monday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely over the region on Monday first along and ahead of the warm front and then along and ahead of the cold front early Tuesday morning. While the warm front will be over the heart of this area, instability is greatly lacking with forecasted values of 200-500 J/kg compared to 1000-2000 J/kg on Christmas and this suggest a smaller severe threat compared to the Christmas event. Cold front cutting into the warm sector early Tuesday morning may result in a few marginal severe storms with the main threats being hail and strong winds.

Another concern will be rainfall as moisture levels will be very high for this time of year and there is a window from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for a period of cell training which is shown nicely in the Texas Tech WRF model. Given the high levels of moisture that will be in place this does raise some concern for flooding and this will need close watch on Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 2.0 inches appears likely Monday-Tuesday.

Extended:

Cold front slowly pushes offshore on Tuesday and becomes stationary as the upper flow is out of the SW and parallel to the boundary. Main upper trough remains anchored WSW of the region over N MX with short waves rotating through the trough and then into the southern plains. While the GFS had trended toward the wetter ECMWF over the past 24 hours the latest run is back to its drier pattern while the ECMWF remains firm on a cold wet pattern through the end of the week. With the cold front stalled off the coast and the main trough hanging back to the WSW this provides a good pattern for moisture to overrun the cold surface dome. The question is how much dry air sinks southward in the low levels and/or where does the front stall. Current thinking is that the front will stall close enough to the coast that moisture will remain plentiful over SE TX and the coastal bend with periods of rainfall developing from SW to NE during the entire period from Wed-early Friday. Additional widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches seems possible from Wed-Fri.

Other question to deal with is the threat for any frozen or freezing precipitation in the Wed-Fri period. ECMWF would suggest a chance of rain changing to snow NW of a line from LaGrange to Brenham to Conroe on Thursday as cooling aloft with the upper trough moves into the area. GFS shows a much drier profile and does not support snow in the area, although Thursday morning dewpoints at College Station are in the upper 20’s/low 30’s with air temperatures in the mid 30’s…but this would still suggest rain as there would be little room for evaporative cooling. For now will keep everything rain, as the upstream air mass while cold is not overly cold for this time of year and there is not significant model agreement on moisture or temperature profiles over the northwest 1/3rd of the area for Wed-Thur. Will need to keep a watchful eye on this aspect moving forward over the next 24-36 hours.

[vbhoutex]

Yuck! Jeff still says wet and cold. Already cool and misting here in W. Houston. Temp has come up from 46f to 59f since 1am this morning.

Widespread rainfall will develop this evening and continuing into Tuesday.

Warm front with all its associated weather (fog, drizzle, and light rain) currently extends from near Victoria to Wharton to San Luis Pass. South of the front temperatures have increased to 71 at Bay City versus 48 at Caldwell. Fog and drizzle are noted across nearly the entire area. Warm front will make very slow northward progress today possibly reaching I-10 by late afternoon while increasing upper level lift from a short wave ejecting out of the mean SW US trough moves into the region this afternoon. Expect to see widespread light to moderate rainfall develop with a few heavier showers. Could see a thunderstorm or two near the warm front this afternoon as the lift increases, but the chance is fairly low given near zero instability.

Main event is expected tonight as another strong cold front sags into the area. Moisture profiles on the CRP and BRO 12Z soundings were in the 1.3-1.5 inch range on the PWS and expect this moisture advection to progress up the coast and into SE TX this afternoon. This does support heavy rainfall given the high moisture parameters for this time of year, but lack of any significant surface instability should greatly reduce the threat for organized thunderstorms producing very heavy rains.

General widespread rainfall with embedded heavy downpours can be expected tonight with storm totals of 1-2 inches NE of a line from Brenham to Angleton with isolated totals near 3 inches. SW of this line totals will average .5 to 1 inch.

Temperature today will slowly rise to the mid to upper 60’s south of the warm front and remain steady of slowly rise into the mid 50’s north of the boundary. Cold front tonight will knock temperatures back into the 40’s and they will remain in the 40’s on Tuesday under gusty NW winds, clouds, and lingering rainfall.

Cold front will slowly sag off the coast on Tuesday with drier low level air mass filtering southward. Large swath of rainfall should progress to the coast and possibly offshore, but active southern stream jet in combination with main axis of the upper level trough remaining west of the area over N MX will continue thick clouds and potential rain chances Wed-Thurs. Models are not and have not been handling the mid-late week pattern/forecast very well as they bounce between wet and dry. One item that is nearly certain is that temperatures will be cool to cold with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 50’s under mainly cloudy skies. As for rainfall, will keep some chance of rainfall near the coast, but it is uncertain as to how far inland rains may spread from time to time as weak disturbances translate through the SW US trough and across TX. Wed night and Thurs AM look like a possible wet period especially near the coast.

[vbhoutex]

And the real fun has started. Just had a heavy downpour in W. Houston. Fortunately the temp is up to 66f so it isn't a cold rain. Looks like plenty more on radar to our SW, but none of it appears to be heavy like the line that just went through here headed East.

[vbhoutex]

Great weather this week if you like COLD AND WET. Here is morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Cloudy and Cold‏

Classic winter weather pattern in place over TX this week with cold air flowing southward from the north being overrun by moist SW flow aloft.

Cloudy, cold, and at times wet pattern will remain in place through the weekend as an active sub-tropical jet stream on the south side of a mean southwestern US trough overtops a cold surface air mass over TX. A cold front crossed the region early Tuesday morning producing a period of very heavy rainfall of 3-5 inches right along the coast from Brazoria County to Jefferson County. Galveston recorded at record 4.01 inches of rainfall making it the wettest New Years Day ever for that location. Most of the rest of the area saw much less rainfall with totals averaging in the .5 to 1.0 inch range. Cold front has made steady progress off the coast and well into the Gulf waters however a warm and moist upper level flow is pouring NNE over the surface cold dome resulting in a large stream of clouds from the eastern Pacific across much of TX. A review of the morning soundings from BRO, CRP, LCH, and FWD shows much wetter profiles from Corpus southward with significant amounts of dry air located just north of SE TX in the N TX and N LA soundings. The LCH sounding had a dry layer from roughly 850 to 700mb. While the radar is highly active only small amounts of rainfall are able to pass through the dry layer and reach the ground. Surface observations indicate rain is reaching the ground mainly southwest of a line from High Island to Hobby Airport to Columbus. Given the upstream look at the radar (widespread coverage), suspect the mid level dry layer will shrink some today allowing a few more locations to pick up measurable rainfall…especially near the coast where the column is already saturating. Do not think any location will see more than .25 of an inch.

With thick clouds and drizzle/light rain temperatures will warm very little and many locations will not make 50.

Forecast models show the main area of light rainfall and lift shifting eastward tonight while the next short wave rotates through the western side of the trough over the SW US and prepares to move into TX Thursday night. Expect the dry layer to deepen some over SE TX on Thursday and this will shut down rainfall chances, but keep clouds in place. Increasing lift spreads from N MX into SW/W TX Thursday night with precipitation developing. Once again moisture will be limited, but more importantly the air column will be near or slightly below freezing west of a line from Waco to Del Rio suggesting light rain mixed with or changing to snow. Some significant snowfall will be possible over the Big Bend of TX into the Hill County region Thursday night and Friday morning. Think the snow may reach as far east as I-35 north of Austin into the Waco area. Locally, profiles are too warm for snow and moisture is very limited until later on Friday. Would not rule out a snow flurry or two over our western counties if they can penetrate that mid level dry layer.

Rain chances increase slightly Friday night and Saturday as the above mentioned short wave moves across TX. Main lift is aimed at N TX, but the combination of increasing isentropic lift over the surface cold dome will support at least a 30-40% chance of showers….best period for rainfall seems to be Saturday morning, but I am concerned that dry low levels from a re-enforcing shot of cold air on Thursday may have to be overcome before rainfall will reach the ground.

Cloudy and at time periods of rainfall will keep temperatures nearly uniform throughout the entire period with lows in the 40’s (maybe the upper 30’s) and highs in the lower 50’s.

May begin to see more warmer weather under sunnier conditions by early next week.

[vbhoutex]

Getting a few reports of sleet mixed with light rain in the near NW and NW metro areas of Houston. I can't provide ground truth on this yet.

edit: Still no verification at my house, but multiple verifications from local S2K, KHOU board members and Jeff Lindner.