NE Winter Storm / Blizzard

[cycloneye]

TWC updated the snowfall totals and now has NYC between 12-18 inches.

[cycloneye]

Blizzard Warning for New York City

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176-178-080500-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...SOME TREE LIMBS WILL BE DOWNED...CAUSING SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[cycloneye]

Blizzard Warning issued for Connecticut,Rhode Island,Eastern and Southeastern Mass

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-080500-
/O.UPG.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES...
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMING
HEAVY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIEST OF
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOCUS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED BY THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH...RESULTING IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

MAZ005>007-012>023-RIZ001>008-080500-
/O.UPG.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...
PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...
WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
355 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BOSTON AND BOSTON METRO AREA...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES...
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING...BECOMING
HEAVY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIEST OF
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY FOCUS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL. WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED BY THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH...RESULTING IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

[cycloneye]

A complete discussion by the Boston NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS. A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS
STORM SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/...

* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE THREATS
TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY.

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 60 MPH.

* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP
10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO
AROUND 5 FEET.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE
INTO SATURDAY.

*/MODEL CONSENSUS...

DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL LEAN WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERING NOT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO THE H85-7 LOW WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES /WARM...COLD...DRY/. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID-LVL LOW WHEREAS THE NAM IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.

*/SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND
AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS USURPED INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO AN EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM DRAWS DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE
STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT FEEL THE
DETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING.

*/PRECIPITATION...

PRIOR TO THE PHASING AND BOMBING OF THE SURFACE LOW /DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY/...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S/SE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THE
LOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TO
THE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE.

ANTICIPATING ANY AND ALL WET MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARDS THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOUTH
RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING
FLUFFIER.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY...
BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY
TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

SW-NE SNOW-BANDING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND PIVOTING WITH THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
TROWALING OF THETAE...MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER
ENHANCED ASCENT.

IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND WITH
THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW. BUT THE KEY IS THE LOCATION OF THE H85-7
LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THE ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL
DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS. THERE REMAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHT DEGREES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW.

ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL
BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH
THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. NO SURPRISE...AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING OVER THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG AND ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL SET MY SIGHTS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THIS VICINITY.

A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE.

A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
ANTICIPATING A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED BANDING SIGNATURES. LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN CAPE AND TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE INITIAL
MIXING WITH RAIN.

HAVE GONE WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND E/SE MA EXCLUDING
NANTUCKET. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL
SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

*/WINDS...

STRONGEST WINDS CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. RULES OF THUMB...HALVING THE H85 FLOW NETS AN
ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...WHILE AN
EVALUATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL NETS AN ESTIMATE OF
AROUND 60 MPH.

CONSIDERING LOCAL CASE STUDIES AND CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON PRESSURE
DIFFERENTIALS AND H925/85 WINDS...WE WILL HIT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG
PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925 WHERE
N/NE WINDS MAX UP TO AROUND 90 MPH...AM EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE
MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCH-
MARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW
FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING
IN DRIFTS OF AROUND 5 FEET.

IN AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...THE GENERAL
PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE INCLUSIVE NOT
REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E/SE MA INTO RI...THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS.

*/MARINE IMPACTS...

PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION.

*/COASTAL FLOODING...

PLESE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
DISCUSSION.

*/PREPAREDNESS...

PLEASE SEE THE SNOW BRIEFING PAGE ON http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

[WeatherGuesser]

Why am I seeing a storm name in the thread title?

Has anybody official issued one?

[cycloneye]

Why am I seeing a storm name in the thread title?

Has anybody official issued one?

NOAA doesn't name winter storms but TWC started to do that this Winter. But I took the word Nemo off the title to add Blizzard Warning for NYC.

[WeatherGuesser]

Why am I seeing a storm name in the thread title?

Has anybody official issued one?

NOAA doesn't name winter storms but TWC started to do that this Winter.

That's my point. If NOAA doesn't issue them, they shouldn't be used.

Glad to see it gone.

[Ntxw]

Maybe we can label it the Feb-2013 KU event . Essentially it will be categorized on NESIS (used by NOAA) as a major+ which qualifies

[cycloneye]

I hope that those who were going to travel by air,rail or by car have a plan B.

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

RT @BostonGlobe: BREAKING: Logan Airport plans to shut operations from early Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon

[cycloneye]

Things are comming together tonight in a fast pace. This is a frozen loop.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2cmn8dd.jpg

[tomboudreau]

The discussion that NWS Boston put out tonight is the most complete discussion that I have read in a long time.

FXUS61 KBOX 080253
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS STORM
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...EXPECT THAT ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SNOW REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL
CLOSER TO 6 AM.

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING
ALONG AN ARC FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR THE WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY THICKEN
AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/...

* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE THREATS
TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY.

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 60 MPH.

* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP
10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO
AROUND 5 FEET.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE
INTO SATURDAY.

*/MODEL CONSENSUS...

DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL LEAN WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERING NOT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO THE H85-7 LOW WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES /WARM...COLD...DRY/. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID-LVL LOW WHEREAS THE NAM IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.

*/SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND
AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS USURPED INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO AN EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM DRAWS DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE
STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT FEEL THE
DETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING.

*/PRECIPITATION...

PRIOR TO THE PHASING AND BOMBING OF THE SURFACE LOW /DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY/...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S/SE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THE
LOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TO
THE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE.

ANTICIPATING ANY AND ALL WET MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARDS THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOUTH
RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING
FLUFFIER.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY...
BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY
TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

SW-NE SNOW-BANDING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND PIVOTING WITH THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
TROWALING OF THETAE...MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER
ENHANCED ASCENT.

IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND WITH
THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW. BUT THE KEY IS THE LOCATION OF THE H85-7
LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THE ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL
DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS. THERE REMAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHT DEGREES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW.

ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL
BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH
THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. NO SURPRISE...AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING OVER THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG AND ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL SET MY SIGHTS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THIS VICINITY.

A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE.

A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
ANTICIPATING A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED BANDING SIGNATURES. LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN CAPE AND TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE INITIAL
MIXING WITH RAIN.

HAVE GONE WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND E/SE MA EXCLUDING
NANTUCKET. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL
SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

*/WINDS...

STRONGEST WINDS CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. RULES OF THUMB...HALVING THE H85 FLOW NETS AN
ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...WHILE AN
EVALUATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL NETS AN ESTIMATE OF
AROUND 60 MPH.

CONSIDERING LOCAL CASE STUDIES AND CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON PRESSURE
DIFFERENTIALS AND H925/85 WINDS...WE WILL HIT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG
PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925 WHERE
N/NE WINDS MAX UP TO AROUND 90 MPH...AM EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE
MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCH-
MARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW
FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING
IN DRIFTS OF AROUND 5 FEET.

IN AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...THE GENERAL
PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE INCLUSIVE NOT
REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E/SE MA INTO RI...THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS.

*/MARINE IMPACTS...

PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION.

*/COASTAL FLOODING...

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
DISCUSSION.

*/PREPAREDNESS...

PLEASE SEE THE SNOW BRIEFING PAGE ON http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIPS TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THEN TURNS THE CORNER AND LIFTS TO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY. PART OF THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THEN SWEEPS NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EMCWF UPPER
FLOWS THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SMALL DIVERGENCE MIDWEEK.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT... MAJOR STORM DEPARTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING EVENING SNOW ON THE CAPE BUT SHOULD END QUICKLY.
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE...BUT STILL 2MB/HOUR
RISES ARE EXPECTED EARLY AT NIGHT AND 1 MB/HOUR LATE. SO SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE STRONG DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHING SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MIXING TO
SUPPORT 50 KNOT/60 MPH GUSTS EARLY...BUT THIS ALSO DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD AIR WILL BRING WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO ALMOST EVERYWHERE...AND BELOW -10F OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA. THERE MEANS A POTENTIAL FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SWINGS A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT...SO EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO REACH US
LATE MORNING WITH 25-30 MB/HOUR VALUES AT 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS MATCHES WELL THIS THIS...ALL SHOW MEASURABLE PCPN
WEST OF US AT 12Z MONDAY AND OVERSPREADING THIS AREA BY 18Z. OUR
FORECAST FEATURES CHANCE POPS ARRIVING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES TOWARD 00Z. DIMINISHING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER. MIXING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS WOULD FAVOR 25 KNOT
GUSTS TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH THIS
PASSAGE WHILE THE GFS GENERATES A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WIND
AND RAIN. MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS STAGE...WE FEATURE CHANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PART OF THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A MAJOR
QUESTION. OUR BLEND OF GUIDANCE YIELDS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT WITH NO CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF ANY DEVELOPING LOW
THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESULTING PRECIP TYPE. AT THIS STAGE
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE FROM THE FORECAST THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
KIND OF PCPN BUT NOT LOCK INTO ANY PCPN TYPES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW... HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY... MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF LOW
CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FRI NGT INTO SAT AM...THEN SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE SAT AFTN ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...
DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CIGS AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
LOWER /MVFR/ CIGS ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
MID MORNING.

FRI AFTN...CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR DURING THE AFTN AND LIFR BY
EVENING AS THE SNOW INCREASES. SNOW ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH RAIN AT ACK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
SURFACE VALUES REACHING 25-40 KNOTS BY EVENING...EAST WINDS AT
2000 FEET WILL REACH 60 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY
EVENING...BRINGING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

FRI NIGHT...IFR/LIFR ALL TERMINALS AND VERY STRONG WINDS EASTERN
MA WITH NE WINDS G60KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS AT
2000 FEET AGL WILL GUST 60-80 KNOTS BOS-PVD-CAPE AND ISLANDS.
GUSTS 35-50 KT POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST. SNOWFALL RATES 1-2 IN PER
HOUR ALL TERMINALS.

SAT...IFR/LIFR ALL TERMINALS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN
PER HOUR IN THE AM FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. G60KT REMAIN POSSIBLE
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR ALONG
WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
ESPECIALLY AROUND BOSTON AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS
40-50 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

MONDAY...VFR EARLY BUT WITH LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY...
VFR WITH WEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCA HEADLINES FOR MOST
WATERS FOR MARGINAL 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA BY EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS. WE BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 12Z WAVE WATCH DEPICTED 35 FT BY SAT
MORNING E OF CAPE COD...AND USUALLY IN WELL MIXED NE OR N FLOW WE
CONSIDER ADDING ANOTHER 20 PERCENT. HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO A LONG FETCH IN THE 25 TO 35 FT
RANGE...WITH PEAK VALUES OF 37 FT E OF CAPE COD. THESE ARE RATHER
EXTREME BUT SUPPORTED BY 70 TO 80 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN ECMWF...GFS
AND NAM MODELS AND A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. SEAS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT... DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS. WINDS AT STORM FORCE
EARLY AT NIGHT BUT DIMINISHING TO GALES OR LIGHTER BY SUNRISE.
DIMINISHING SEAS...BUT STILL HAZARDOUS ON THE EASTERN WATERS AND
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD AIR WILL
GENERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY...
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WATERS. LINGERING FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY... INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET
TOWARD EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY AND WEST WINDS LATE.

TUESDAY...WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 5 FEET MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SALISBURY MA
SOUTHWARD TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FOR THE FRI EVENING AND SAT
MORNING HIGH TIDE ***

MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE...

TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES PRESENT CONCERN...FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL E...NE
AND N FACING SHORELINES ALONG THE MA COAST FOR BOTH THE FRI
EVENING AND SAT MORNING HIGH TIDES. FOR THE FRI EVENING HIGH
TIDE...ONSHORE WINDS...SURGE AND SEAS WILL BE RAMPING UP. WE THINK
THE SURGE WILL BE GETTING INTO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE AND SEAS A
LITTLE OFFSHORE IN THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH
TIDE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 930 PM AND 10 PM. THIS RESULTS IN A MINOR
TO MODERATE IMPACT.

THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY BE THE MORE SERIOUS EVENT AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF IT BEING A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND VERY LARGE
SEAS. WE THINK THE SURFACE WIND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
HAVE BACKED TO NNE OR N BY THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE...BUT STILL
NE WITH A LONG FETCH OVER THE GULF OF ME AND NORTHERN GEORGES
BANK. THE SURGE MAY BE STARTING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE WIND SHIFTING
TO BE MORE FROM THE NORTH VS NORTHEAST BUT STILL IN THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE...HIGHEST S OF BOSTON. IN FACT...WE ARE CALLING FOR A 4 TO
4.5 FT SURGE ALONG THE N SIDE OF CAPE COD...INCLUDING THE
SANDWICH/SPRING HILL BEACH AREA WHERE THE WIND WILL BE MORE
DIRECTLY ONSHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 FT E AND NE OF
CAPE ANN AND 30 TO 35 FT IN VICINITY OF STELLWAGEN BANK AND JUST
OFF E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THUS...WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MODERATE IMPACT ALONG THE MA E COAST N OF BOSTON AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR S OF BOSTON. WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE IMPACT OF
LARGE BREAKERS ON TOP OF AN ELEVATED TIDE. THERE IS A RISK OF SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY HULL TO SANDWICH.

RI COAST...

NOT TOO MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING GIVEN STORM TRACK YIELDING
NORTHEAST WINDS. HOWEVER WITH TIDES ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AND GOOD
PRES FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM...POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE RI COAST. ALSO FLOOD
THRESHOLD FOR RI COASTLINE IS NOW A BIT LOWER AFTER SANDY ERODED
AWAY MUCH OF THE DUNES ALONG THE COASTLINE.

BEACH EROSION...

THE OTHER ISSUE IS BEACH EROSION. THE BEACH EROSION WILL BEGIN TO
BE NOTED BY THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE AND MAY BE SEVERE IN SOME
LOCATIONS FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...INCLUDING THE PLUM
ISLAND AREA...SCITUATE TO PLYMOUTH AND SANDWICH...OUTER CAPE
INCLUDING CHATHAM...AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

COASTAL FLOOD DEFINITIONS...

MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...AT LEAST SCATTERED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS
EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOME AREAS.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ005>007-012>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ024.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ011-012-015.
RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ231>237.
STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
251.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

[CrazyC83]

Could this be one of the top 5 all-time worst blizzards in the US?

[Cyclenall]

Could this be one of the top 5 all-time worst blizzards in the US?

If it was in the "Top 5" for blizzards in the US, that would be pretty sad considering there was only 2 pages of discussion on a weather board for it. What aspect of it makes you think it could be in the top 5?

[bzukajo]

CrazyC83 wrote:
Could this be one of the top 5 all-time worst blizzards in the US?

If it was in the "Top 5" for blizzards in the US, that would be pretty sad considering there was only 2 pages of discussion on a weather board for it. What aspect of it makes you think it could be in the top 5?

Yes, that would be sad.

[Ntxw]

This won't be the biggest blizzard in the US. March 1993 is the king in modern times, even if this nor'easter dumped record snow in NY and Boston. 93 dumped insane snow in the south all the way to Florida and up the eastern third of the country! That storm was much bigger in scope.

Here is the NESIS rating for previous systems and this storm (by guessing) I would assume a 3 maybe 4. A major one no doubt, probably not the biggest and top 5 has serious company.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/ ... /NESIS.htm

[northjaxpro]

This won't be the biggest blizzard in the US. March 1993 is the king in modern times, even if this nor'easter dumped record snow in NY and Boston. 93 dumped insane snow in the south all the way to Florida and up the eastern third of the country! That storm was much bigger in scope.

Here is the NESIS rating for previous systems and this storm (by guessing) I would assume a 3 maybe 4. A major one no doubt, probably not the biggest and top 5 has serious company.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/ ... /NESIS.htm

The March 1993 Superstorm was one for the ages for certain. There is no question I would rank that storm Top 5 weather events to ever impact the Eastern U.S. 960 mb at its strongest point. The snow in our part of the world for that event was unbelievable in itself, but we had tornadoes, coastal flooding and tropical storm/gale force winds which pounded the FL peninsula for a couple days.

The nor'easter impacting the Northeast U.S. today and Saturday will be a major event no question, but it won't top the March 1993 monster I can assure you!

[cycloneye]

Here are cams at New York Harbor and Times Square. Hopefully they stay working to see how things progress there. If anyone has cams from different areas of New England bring them. I think the thing to do from now is to watch the event unfold in real time from start to finish and forget the models.

http://www.nyharborwebcam.com/

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

[cycloneye]

More cams from NYC.

5th Avenue cam

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/fif ... nyc5th_str

Midtown cam

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/mid ... am=midtown

[ravyrn]

Here's a link to a nice list of Boston area webcams. It seems to include some regional webcams also from NH and VT.

Harbor View, Nantucket

[cycloneye]

Tweet from Jim Cantore. Thank you ravyrn for the cams.

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Best chances for #thundersnow looks to be late tonight and during the early morning hours for #Boston and southern New England. #MAwx #RIwx