WOW. 12Z GFS Huge snowstorm TX GulfCoast to AL/FL GulfCoast!

[Scorpion]

TWC is starting to get on the scheme of things. Shows 57/39 for Monday. I know this will be lower, as in 40's for high and low 30's/upper 20's for low. At least I can dream...

[vbhoutex]

Check out James Spanns web video update........Just out for afternoon!
WOW!!! is the word. Everyday is looking better for a southern snow event
.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I'm on dial-up, and the video won't load. Could you give a summary of it? Snow for the Houston area???? Thanks.

No he is a Birmingham AL OCM. Be looking for changes coming earlier than expected here if the retrogression of the trough verifies. Down the road just a little winter type precip is slowly but surely beginning to look like a real possibility here in SE TX within the next two weeks. Can't pinpoint it this far out, but if the model consistency continues to pick up we could have some very interesting and DEFINITELY VERY COLD weather over the next two weeks.

[WhiteShirt]

Check out James Spanns web video update........Just out for afternoon!
WOW!!! is the word. Everyday is looking better for a southern snow event
.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I'm on dial-up, and the video won't load. Could you give a summary of it? Snow for the Houston area???? Thanks.

No he is a Birmingham AL OCM. Be looking for changes coming earlier than expected here if the retrogression of the trough verifies. Down the road just a little winter type precip is slowly but surely beginning to look like a real possibility here in SE TX within the next two weeks. Can't pinpoint it this far out, but if the model consistency continues to pick up we could have some very interesting and DEFINITELY VERY COLD weather over the next two weeks.

Thanks! I saw a gfs accumulated snowcover map for the 26 & 27 and it is showing several inches of snow here in s.e. Texas. When will the local mets start to reflect the major cold that is coming?

[GalvestonDuck]

Thanks! I saw a gfs accumulated snowcover map for the 26 & 27 and it is showing several inches of snow here in s.e. Texas. When will the local mets start to reflect the major cold that is coming?

Where'd ya see that? I need to take a peek.

[GalvestonDuck]

Ya know what's cool? When you go to search for a map and one of the main hits in the search is one of your very own weather buddy's own pages -- in this case, Stormsfury!

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=gfs+sn ... 1&ei=UTF-8

See #10

[WhiteShirt]

Thanks! I saw a gfs accumulated snowcover map for the 26 & 27 and it is showing several inches of snow here in s.e. Texas. When will the local mets start to reflect the major cold that is coming?

Where'd ya see that? I need to take a peek.

It came from the subscription side of accuweather.

[PurdueWx80]

Thanks! I saw a gfs accumulated snowcover map for the 26 & 27 and it is showing several inches of snow here in s.e. Texas. When will the local mets start to reflect the major cold that is coming?

Where'd ya see that? I need to take a peek.

It came from the subscription side of accuweather.

That product often shows snow accumulation even if sleet or freezing rain fall. I guess the algorithm isn't quite accurate enough to know low-level profiles and such. Either way, any frozen precip that far south would be pretty cool.

[PurdueWx80]

And just 6 hours after the "exciting" 12Z run, the 18Z goes full-fledged with the polar vortex in the Plains and Midwest!!!! It brings a big storm up west of the Appalachians and there is no snow in the deep south, although some in the usual suspect areas of the TX panhandle, etc.

Christmas Eve morning -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204m.gif

Christmas Day...BRRR!!!!!!! -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240m.gif

[PTrackerLA]

That video update was really exciting. I know there are alot of "ifs" but a Christmas storm has been shown for the past couple of runs. Imagine that, snow breaking out in south Louisiana on Christmas day, all hell would break loose lol!

[PTrackerLA]

And just 6 hours after the "exciting" 12Z run, the 18Z goes full-fledged with the polar vortex in the Plains and Midwest!!!! It brings a big storm up west of the Appalachians and there is no snow in the deep south, although some in the usual suspect areas of the TX panhandle, etc.

Christmas Eve morning -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204m.gif

Christmas Day...BRRR!!!!!!! -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240m.gif

Ok well maybe no Christmas day storm but it will be COLD!

[Wnghs2007]

Dont Trust 18z GFS past 132 hours.

Which is showing the pattern change back to SE Ridge and West Coast Trough and all that bull crap. The resolution at 132 hrs changes from 77 Km to 108 Km on both the 06z and 18z runs. The 00z and 12z runs Stay at a consitent resolution throughout. Making the 6z and 18z Obsilite and destroying there accuracy past that time.

Thats mostly why the GFS flip flops after 132 hrs. So much. Just thought I would tell some of you all so yall dont freak out with it not showing snow on Christmas again. It will change back at 00z pretty much sure. The diffrent resolution hurts its pattern prediciting skills.

[PTrackerLA]

Dont Trust 18z GFS past 132 hours.

Which is showing the pattern change back to SE Ridge and West Coast Trough and all that bull crap. The resolution at 132 hrs changes from 77 Km to 108 Km on both the 06z and 18z runs. The 00z and 12z runs Stay at a consitent resolution throughout. Making the 6z and 18z Obsilite and destroying there accuracy past that time.

Thats mostly why the GFS flip flops after 132 hrs. So much. Just thought I would tell some of you all so yall dont freak out with it not showing snow on Christmas again. It will change back at 00z pretty much sure. The diffrent resolution hurts its pattern prediciting skills.

Trust me, I know all about the GFS, whether it be phantom hurricanes or winter storms. However, since we rarely see snow this far south just the projection of it gets me going (and alot of others around here ) THINK SNOW EVERYBODY!

[PurdueWx80]

Dont Trust 18z GFS past 132 hours.

Which is showing the pattern change back to SE Ridge and West Coast Trough and all that bull crap. The resolution at 132 hrs changes from 77 Km to 108 Km on both the 06z and 18z runs. The 00z and 12z runs Stay at a consitent resolution throughout. Making the 6z and 18z Obsilite and destroying there accuracy past that time.

Thats mostly why the GFS flip flops after 132 hrs. So much. Just thought I would tell some of you all so yall dont freak out with it not showing snow on Christmas again. It will change back at 00z pretty much sure. The diffrent resolution hurts its pattern prediciting skills.

I'm actually pretty sure that's not true. From what I can tell from the NCEP model description site, all 4 runs are the same - with resolution decreasing after 180 hours.

Currently, the GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 384 hours. The initial forecast resolution was changed on October 29, 2002 to T254 (equivalent to about about 55-km grid-point resolution) with 64 levels out to 3.5 days (84 hours). At later forecast times, the GFS has a resolution of T170 (equivalent to about 80-km resolution) with 42 levels from 3.5 to 7.5 days (180 hours), and finally T126 (equivalent to about 110-km resolution) with 28 levels beyond to day 16 (384 hours). The reduction in GFS model resolution at 84 hours is consistent with studies showing that the GFS benefits from higher resolution only out to about day 3-4. All GFS runs get their initial conditions from the Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) global data assimilation system (GDAS), which is updated continuously throughout the day.

- from http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/avintro.htm

[bfez1]

Snow, snow,snow!!!
I want snow so bad her in New Orleans!!!
((((((Snow vibes))))))

[Wnghs2007]

Dont Trust 18z GFS past 132 hours.

Which is showing the pattern change back to SE Ridge and West Coast Trough and all that bull crap. The resolution at 132 hrs changes from 77 Km to 108 Km on both the 06z and 18z runs. The 00z and 12z runs Stay at a consitent resolution throughout. Making the 6z and 18z Obsilite and destroying there accuracy past that time.

Thats mostly why the GFS flip flops after 132 hrs. So much. Just thought I would tell some of you all so yall dont freak out with it not showing snow on Christmas again. It will change back at 00z pretty much sure. The diffrent resolution hurts its pattern prediciting skills.

I'm actually pretty sure that's not true. From what I can tell from the NCEP model description site, all 4 runs are the same - with resolution decreasing after 180 hours.

Currently, the GFS is run four times per day (00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC) out to 384 hours. The initial forecast resolution was changed on October 29, 2002 to T254 (equivalent to about about 55-km grid-point resolution) with 64 levels out to 3.5 days (84 hours). At later forecast times, the GFS has a resolution of T170 (equivalent to about 80-km resolution) with 42 levels from 3.5 to 7.5 days (180 hours), and finally T126 (equivalent to about 110-km resolution) with 28 levels beyond to day 16 (384 hours). The reduction in GFS model resolution at 84 hours is consistent with studies showing that the GFS benefits from higher resolution only out to about day 3-4. All GFS runs get their initial conditions from the Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) global data assimilation system (GDAS), which is updated continuously throughout the day.

- from http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/avintro.htm

Well, LOL Proved me wrong.

But the GFS will flip back to EUS trough and Not retrogression by christmas.

[Scorpion]

I want snow here too! But I know Im not getting any, so any temps below 30 would be a great Christmas gift !

[Brent]

That video update was really exciting. I know there are alot of "ifs" but a Christmas storm has been shown for the past couple of runs. Imagine that, snow breaking out in south Louisiana on Christmas day, all hell would break loose lol!

Spann is the man.

[Brent]

And just 6 hours after the "exciting" 12Z run, the 18Z goes full-fledged with the polar vortex in the Plains and Midwest!!!! It brings a big storm up west of the Appalachians and there is no snow in the deep south, although some in the usual suspect areas of the TX panhandle, etc.

Christmas Eve morning -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204m.gif

Christmas Day...BRRR!!!!!!! -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240m.gif

Ok well maybe no Christmas day storm but it will be COLD!

I'm so sick of wearing short sleeves on Christmas.

LET IT SNOW! LET IT SNOW! LET IT SNOW! I'll be home all day anyway watching my DVD's I get.

[breeze]

Snow, snow,snow!!!
I want snow so bad her in New Orleans!!!
((((((Snow vibes))))))

Ommmmmmmmm...!!!

*Adding to the snow vibes!

[MGC]

Snow here on the coast Christmas time? Long shot but possible. I remember the big snow on New Years 1964........MGC