Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[srainhoutx]

And with the GFS performance thus far, I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS has had a terrible go of it for the past several months if not longer. We shall see if this "event" will be as sharp as advertised. Fun to watch anyway.

[gboudx]

And with the GFS performance thus far, I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS has had a terrible go of it for the past several months if not longer. We shall see if this "event" will be as sharp as advertised. Fun to watch anyway.

3 days out. That's when I start buying into the GFS. Or if it has remarkable run-to-run consistency in the 5 day range.

[CaptinCrunch]

And with the GFS performance thus far, I'll believe it when I see it. The GFS has had a terrible go of it for the past several months if not longer. We shall see if this "event" will be as sharp as advertised. Fun to watch anyway.

3 days out. That's when I start buying into the GFS. Or if it has remarkable run-to-run consistency in the 5 day range.

So true, anything beyond 72 hrs in model time is just blind guessing. That's why I also wont buy into the model runs (GFS) till Tuesday night for a Thursday and Friday time frame.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The problem is, it isn't just the GFS showing the cool down. Other models and the ensembles also show a pattern change...and JB, who has been right on everything this fall so far, also agrees with a big pattern shift. Currently, there is not much doubt in my mind that this change will be for real (likely starting right around Thanksgiving).

[gboudx]

Snippet from afternoon DFW AFD.

HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMFW QUICKLY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
POWERFUL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. IF THESE SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...A WET AND POSSIBLY VERY COOL THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE
IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Snippet from afternoon DFW AFD.

HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMFW QUICKLY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
POWERFUL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. IF THESE SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...A WET AND POSSIBLY VERY COOL THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE
IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

Key word is "IF" in disco. Will continue to watch and see what developes as the days go by

[CaptinCrunch]

Snippet from afternoon DFW AFD.

HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMFW QUICKLY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.
MONDAY. BOTH MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
POWERFUL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. IF THESE SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...A WET AND POSSIBLY VERY COOL THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE
IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

You beat me to the post, my friend.....

Anyway I'm not trying to bust on anyones chops about this system, but I'm sticking to my Turkey day forecast of low to mid 70's for high's under mostly cloudy skies, which was my reason to post here to begain with...LOL. Did you notice that the model runs have been pushing this system back by almost 24hrs over the last 2 days. On monday this run had the cold air spilling in on Thanksgiving
now it's not till saturday, and I expect it to be pushed back by another 18 to 24 hrs by this weekend and be a little less agressive with the temps.

Yes, cooler weather is coming just not on Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys will still win by a score of 42-17 over those aweful NY Jets.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not until Saturday? What are you talking about CaptinCrunch? The GFS has been showing this front moving in on Wednesday for many runs now and the 18z is no exception. It is showing the front slicing through the state on Wednesday with a cold and rainy period from Thanksgiving through the following weekend.

BTW - JB also seems to agree with the Wednesday or Thursday timing. In his longranger video today, he placed the front over our area during that period.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here in an in-depth look at the 18z GFS for anyone interested...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif
^^Strong front racing toward north and central TX by sunrise Wednesday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif
^^Front reaches Houston by the afternoon/evening and temperatures quickly drop.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif
^^Thanksgiving afternoon is wet and cold with temperatures in the 40s and 50s for Houston (with good CAA continuing).^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif
^^By midnight Friday morning, most of SE Texas is well below 50˚ with rain. In north TX, the panhandle and parts of central TX, the rain changes to or mixes with snow or ice^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif
^^Rain continues into Friday with highs staying in the 40s for Houston. Some clearing of rain may occur later in the day.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_228l.gif
^^By midnight Saturday morning Houston, and much of the rest of the state, is already into the 30s. Chances are, that with another 6-7 hours of cooling, we will probably see a freeze by sunrise Saturday.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240l.gif
^^Saturday afternoon looks a bit clearer, but highs still struggle to reach 50˚ in Houston^^


**Keep in mind that this is not just a random colder run of the model. That past several runs have all looked like this.**

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS still calling for a major front right around Thanksgiving...

Late Wed. evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_168l.gif
^^Front arrives and is backed by a 1045mb+ high coming out of Canada^^

Thanksgiving morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_180l.gif
^^Temperatures in the 30s/40s across the Houston area with precipitation and breezy winds. Sleet, snow and ice falling in north TX, the panhandle and even parts of central TX.^^

Thanksgiving evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif
^^Very cold with temperatures likely in the 30s all the way to Houston (especially north of I-10). Precipitation continues to fall and the 0C 850mb line is located in parts of the NW Houston area ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif ). This means that WINTER PRECIP. could be falling in parts of SE Texas! ^^

Friday morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif
^^Wow. This would be a dream come true. It is showing us in the 30s areawide with 850mb temperatures at or below 0C ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif ). If this model run were to play out exactly, then sleet, snow and ice could fall as far south as parts of the Houston area!^^

Friday evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_216l.gif
^^Temperatures in the 30s and 850mb temperatures well below 0C ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif ). In this scenario, the precipitation would be ending in the form of wintery precipitation for parts of SE Texas...possibly including parts of Houston! Amazing.^^

Saturday morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_228l.gif
^^Widepsread FREEZING TEMPERATURES all the way to south-central and southeast Texas.! (25˚ at IAH in Houston)^^


This run is obviously a "coldest case scenario". Chances are we will likely not be quite as cold and the snow/ice will not extend quite as far south. However, that is only my logic speaking (trying to balance this out with climatology), and for all I know, I could be wrong. Let's see what the next few days of runs show first before buying in too heavily to this 00z "wintry" scenario.

As for the 00z ECMWF...it is slower than the GFS and shows the front arriving in the Friday - Sunday timeframe. If it ends up being correct, then CaptinCrunch may be right after all. However, I still believe it is trying to hold the trough back in the west for too long and is too slow. We shall see...

[Portastorm]

Yes indeed, the 0z run of the GFS is looking MIGHTY chilly for us in Texas for the Thanksgiving weekend.

CC referenced Leon Lett ... that same year of the Ice Bowl game, Texas and Texas A&M played a game at Kyle Field that also had icy conditions.

Could we be headed for a similar event?!

Calling Wxman57 or Air Force Met to chime in and let us know what reality is here ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yes indeed, the 0z run of the GFS is looking MIGHTY chilly for us in Texas for the Thanksgiving weekend.

CC referenced Leon Lett ... that same year of the Ice Bowl game, Texas and Texas A&M played a game at Kyle Field that also had icy conditions.

Could we be headed for a similar event?!

Calling Wxman57 or Air Force Met to chime in and let us know what reality is here ...

Bring it on!!!

Look forward to sitting my rear end at some high school football stadium next Friday night and freezing my tush off as well!!

[Johnny]

Yep, I think it's time for AFM to chime in. I did see that wxman said over at the KHOU boards that he doesn't think he could wishcast this cold away but he did say that it looks like it will be shortlived.

I'm calling out AFM!! Give it to us bro and set up back to reality! I got a good buck last week that I need to e-mail you.

This is the latest from Jeff....

Thanksgiving:



Will start to hit this harder as the potential for an arctic air intrusion and large scale winter storm appear to be coming together over the southern plains Wednesday of next week into the following weekend. Large scale long wave trough develops over the Rockies as E PAC ridging builds into Alaska and NW Canada unleashing dammed up arctic air currently along the north slope of Alaska. GFS has sped up arctic/polar boundary by about 24 hours and this seems reasonable given dense cold air mass that will move southward. Will go with warm weather with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 80’s Mon-Wed and then the bottom drops out late Wednesday. Will show arctic boundary plowing through the state Wednesday with significant temperature falls of 20-30 degrees likely. GFS is very aggressive with cold air advection and drives surface temps. below freezing during the day on Thanksgiving….will not go that cold and temper temps. toward the 40’s/50’s for highs on Thanksgiving Day. Long wave upper trough hangs back over the Rockies with strong SW flow aloft riding atop the cold arctic dome at the surface. Expect a very cold rain and cloudy skies post frontal passage for an extended period likely into the Thanksgiving weekend. At this time will not entertain the GFS P-type issues it is displaying for late next week across TX as the model looks too cold with its temps. at the surface. Should the model be right…a big if…a widespread area and long duration of freezing rain would be possible late Thanksgiving day into the weekend. For now will keep everything liquid and trend guidance temps. toward the warm side…but still very much colder than what Mon-Wed will be. Still plenty of time for changes with frontal passage timing and intensity of cold air as well as overrunning clouds and precip.

[Johnny]

Look forward to sitting my rear end at some high school football stadium next Friday night and freezing my tush off as well!!

Friday Night Lights! High School playoffs are pretty darn exciting. My hometown team went 8-2 this year (Conroe) and I'll be going to the their first playoff game tomorrow.

[double D]

Today's 6z looks warmer and drier than the 00z run of the GFS. To me, the 06z probably looks the most "reasonable" solution right now considering the time of the year. As much as I want snow and cold, I just think the 00z solution is overdoing it a bit.....I guess we will have to wait to see what happens.

FWIW, Austin and San Antonio NWS, are saying that Thankgiving Day could be "Interesting".

[jasons2k]

It's still the GFS...what's new?

[gboudx]

I'd prefer no rain, sleet or snow. But temps in the 50's would work.

[lrak]

our local weather forecaster said if you like the next few days, wait until next Wednesday for the big cold front.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS run continues to show some real cold air headed for Texas by Thanksgiving. It appears to be less bullish on overrunning precip though. Here's a snippet for you:

[lrak]

The 12z GFS run continues to show some real cold air headed for Texas by Thanksgiving. It appears to be less bullish on overrunning precip though. Here's a snippet for you:

Does the blue line indicate below freezing?

Thanks.