TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

At 114 hours, 1048 mb high in up in Canada and -30º C 850 mb temps, although not exactly in the same place, on 18Z GFS

[Extremeweatherguy]

Very interesting AFD from Oklahoma City...

HOWEVER...WHAT PROBABLY EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW AND IS WHERE MOST OF
THE EMPHASIS HAS BEEN PLACED TODAY IS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
INCLUDING NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CANADA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO...AND ALTHOUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE-WEEK
TRANSITIONS OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE EASTERLY...REMNANTS OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MAY VERY WELL REMAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY..
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMING OVER
WESTERN CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWING A PORTION OF THE REMNANT COLD AIR TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD AS A
COLD FRONT. BUT JUST AS THIS PROCESS BEGINS...MODEL DIFFERENCE IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN BECOME INCREASINGLY LARGE
WITH 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
NEARLY 120 METERS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS
TIME.

They think the first few arctic bursts next week may move more to the east with only glancing blows down here, but by the end of next week, there is potential for the left over arctic air to plunge southward into the southern plains. They do say that there is a lot of uncertainty with this entire situation though and things next week are definitely not set in stone just yet.

[southerngale]

Very interesting AFD from Oklahoma City...

HOWEVER...WHAT PROBABLY EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW AND IS WHERE MOST OF
THE EMPHASIS HAS BEEN PLACED TODAY IS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
INCLUDING NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CANADA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO...AND ALTHOUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE-WEEK
TRANSITIONS OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE EASTERLY...REMNANTS OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MAY VERY WELL REMAIN NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY..
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMING OVER
WESTERN CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWING A PORTION OF THE REMNANT COLD AIR TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD AS A
COLD FRONT. BUT JUST AS THIS PROCESS BEGINS...MODEL DIFFERENCE IN
HOW TO HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN BECOME INCREASINGLY LARGE
WITH 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
NEARLY 120 METERS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS
TIME.

They think the first few arctic bursts next week may move more to the east with only glancing blows down here, but by the end of next week, there is potential for the left over arctic air to plunge southward into the southern plains. They do say that there is a lot of uncertainty with this entire situation though and things next week are definitely not set in stone just yet.

The weather is never set in stone until it actually occurs, and particularly not over a week away.

Regarding that AFD, advancing southward into Oklahoma City and advancing southward into Southeast Texas are two completely different things. If you have to read Oklahoma City AFD's to try and find interesting tidbits for us, I don't think there's much to it (at least yet).

You know I'm just picking on you... but I pay closer attention when our local (or others in Texas) AFD's start talking about the possibility of something, or there's more model consensus... whichever comes first, so keep on posting the models. I'm sure I'm not the only one who appreciates seeing them on here.

[jasons2k]

Many an arctic high has "plunged" south to OK city only to then get shunted east towards LA/MS/AL, especially in a zonal pattern.

[Portastorm]

Many an arctic high has "plunged" south to OK city only to then get shunted east towards LA/MS/AL, especially in a zonal pattern.

Boy, isn't that the truth ... I've lost count on how many times that has happened over the years!

The thing is ... as long as the models prog a stout high pressure centered over the Southwest U.S. or even Baja California and that high noses into the Four Corners ... the bulk of any arctic air will be shunted to our northeast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant snip of Austin-San Antonio AFD...


BEHIND THAT FRONT NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PILING-UP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO WESTERN CANADA...THEN SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC FROPA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.


EWG..... start your engines!

[LaBreeze]

I heard one local met mention something about the possibility of "wintery precipitation" for northern Louisiana toward the end of next week. Another local met mentioned last night that we could see some "interesting" winter weather. Anyone else hearing this from mets?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Relevant snip of Austin-San Antonio AFD...


BEHIND THAT FRONT NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PILING-UP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO WESTERN CANADA...THEN SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC FROPA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.


EWG..... start your engines!

Wow. I'm surprised NWS San Antonio/Austin went out on a limb like that. Last few winters, they wouldn't say that this far out.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
ARCTIC AIR GETTING PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY CLIP NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE BAJA REGION.

We shall see??

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I will admit that this afternoon it is a tough call. Either way, I think we will at least get some nice refreshing cool/chilly air out of this. Whether or not we see anything "arctic" though still seems a bit foggy. Hopefully the next few days of model runs and discussion will help figure this whole mess out!

[Portastorm]

That "gurgling" sound you may be hearing is the sound of the U.S.S. Hopes for an Arctic Blast in Texas ... sinking quickly.

A morning perusal of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian shows NOTHING on the horizon that suggests an arctic blast in Texas in the next 10 days. Seasonal to slighly above seasonal temps appear likely.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That "gurgling" sound you may be hearing is the sound of the U.S.S. Hopes for an Arctic Blast in Texas ... sinking quickly.

A morning perusal of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian shows NOTHING on the horizon that suggests an arctic blast in Texas in the next 10 days. Seasonal to slighly above seasonal temps appear likely.

12Z GFS isn't offering much hope.

[LaBreeze]

True, the two local mets I mentioned in an earlier post have not mentioned any arctic blast or even anything cold for next week. In fact, one met stated that he didn't see anything cold for a couple of weeks at least.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the first freeze will be late this year! We really haven't even had a killing frost yet either but that's fine with me I'd rather the grass be somewhat green than completely brown .

[Below N.O.]

In the New Orleans viewing area. All of the METs are saying that Monday will be the first in a series of cold fronts, each one after getting progressively colder.

And that is fine with me. I would like to see the real plunge of cold hold off til at least the second or third week of December. Anything earlier climatalogically would no favor snow in the deep south. Remember, good things come to those who can wait.

Below N.O.

[gboudx]

Looks like the first freeze will be late this year! We really haven't even had a killing frost yet either but that's fine with me I'd rather the grass be somewhat green than completely brown .

Believe it or not, on my side of Dallas, we haven't had a freeze or killing frost yet either.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The forecast low for Houston next Monday night is 37˚. That is nothing extreme, but it is still pretty chilly (especially considering Hooks airport and my thermometer typically average a couple of degrees below the forecasted low).

[Extremeweatherguy]

That "gurgling" sound you may be hearing is the sound of the U.S.S. Hopes for an Arctic Blast in Texas ... sinking quickly.

A morning perusal of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian shows NOTHING on the horizon that suggests an arctic blast in Texas in the next 10 days. Seasonal to slighly above seasonal temps appear likely.

We will be below seasonal temperatures on a few days as well..but overall, yes it looks like a slightly below to slightly above (averaging near normal) temperature pattern will be in place. However, as we all know, the models can turn on a dime beyond a week out, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger cold shot start to appear on later runs sometime after this first chilly/cool airmass moves through.

[Kennethb]

Its not even December yet. Best cold and wintry precip chances will not come until January or even February. We need to get a snow pack up north and get further into official winter before we can get true winter conditions down south. Beside I do not like December snow flakes. I prefer January snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For anyone wanting a little hope. The 6z GFS once again delivers. Check it out...

Highs in the 40s and 50s (30s panhandle) with rain statewide next Friday (Dec. 7th - 204 hours) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

Another chilly and rainy day next Saturday (Dec. 8th - 228 hours) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

Then, beyond this rainy and cold setup, the GFS once again shows a glimmer of hope for wintery precipitation in the extended...

Snow and ice reach far south into TX on Wednesday, December 12th through Thursday, December 13th =
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif