Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The euro ensembles 10 days out has the Okhotsk Low doing its thing. Like Ntx says, this is the process that has to happen. Glad were starting to see some changes.

[Cerlin]

Yeah ensembles are a little scattered but they’re promising. More promising than the last few weeks.

[Brent]

The 12Z GFS is definitely discouraging, with all that cold air moving south across Texas. Fortunately, the GFS doesn't have a clue that far out. I suspect it'll end up being like this weekend's front. At least, I hope so.

Worried about your wall yet?

[Iceresistance]

The Climate Prediction Center is showing that the MJO may stall at Phase 7 or 8 later this month.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stalling-at-Phase-7-is-possible-now.gif

[kingwood_tx1999]

The Climate Prediction Center is showing that the MJO may stall at Phase 7 or 8 later this month.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stalling-a ... le-now.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stalling-at-Phase-7-is-possible-now.gif

Is that good or bad?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Iceresistance]

The Climate Prediction Center is showing that the MJO may stall at Phase 7 or 8 later this month.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stalling-at-Phase-7-is-possible-now.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stalling-at-Phase-7-is-possible-now.gif

Is that good or bad?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Phase 7 is one of the cold phases in Winter, we could get a prolonged period of colder weather from Late December & into January, but I don't guarantee snowy weather as well.

[Ntxw]

Here's an interesting thought. Nearly all of the notable Nina severe outbreaks does this MJO dance from 6-7-8-> just before or right round the outbreaks. It's almost eerie. If the same holds up then we are on the bill for another big one. We were sitting at this same spot in January with the MJO just before the barrage.



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[Golf7270]

Here's an interesting thought. Nearly all of the notable Nina severe outbreaks does this MJO dance from 6-7-8-> just before or right round the outbreaks. It's almost eerie. If the same holds up then we are on the bill for another big one. We were sitting at this same spot in January with the MJO just before the barrage.

https://i.imgur.com/pmx1yC7.jpg

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Are there any of those that are realistic to this upcoming pattern with everything figured in?

[Ntxw]

Here's an interesting thought. Nearly all of the notable Nina severe outbreaks does this MJO dance from 6-7-8-> just before or right round the outbreaks. It's almost eerie. If the same holds up then we are on the bill for another big one. We were sitting at this same spot in January with the MJO just before the barrage.

https://i.imgur.com/pmx1yC7.jpg

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Are there any of those that are realistic to this upcoming pattern with everything figured in?

84-85 with the timing. Getting this MJO movement before February is important. We're running a little ahead of that year with the MJO but it comes closest. It breaks up the PV and unloads the EPO.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS comes in a little colder on the 20th with snow in Oklahoma. What a way to end a heatwave!

EPO region is loaded.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is definitely discouraging, with all that cold air moving south across Texas. Fortunately, the GFS doesn't have a clue that far out. I suspect it'll end up being like this weekend's front. At least, I hope so.

Worried about your wall yet?

Good think I added that diverter to send the colder air east vs. south. Meanwhile, a record 85F here today. Had a good bike ride.

[Brent]

0z GFS comes in a little colder on the 20th with snow in Oklahoma. What a way to end a heatwave!

EPO region is loaded.

That wall is looking fragile

[Cerlin]

0z GFS comes in a little colder on the 20th with snow in Oklahoma. What a way to end a heatwave!

EPO region is loaded.

That wall is looking fragile

https://i.ibb.co/jrZKxKp/gfs-asnow-scus-47-1.png

To be fair, that is also what the GFS said today would look like about 2 weeks ago. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS comes in a little colder on the 20th with snow in Oklahoma. What a way to end a heatwave!

EPO region is loaded.

That wall is looking fragile

https://i.ibb.co/jrZKxKp/gfs-asnow-scus-47-1.png

To be fair, that is also what the GFS said today would look like about 2 weeks ago. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Yeah but back then there wasn't support, I didn't believe it then. We have potential to be tapping into big league cold. Not just talking about GFS fantasy but there is writing on the wall now something is brewing.

[AustinTXResident]

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on 7 December 2021:

"All surveyed models indicate central Pacific sea surface temperatures (NINO3.4) will continue to cool over the coming months, meeting typical La Niña thresholds in December and January. Three models maintain these temperatures through February, with the remaining models falling just shy of La Niña thresholds."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Pacific-Ocean

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS trending more south with the Winter Precip. compared to 0z, also developing good consistency as well.

However, the 6z run has less cold air mass with the snow compared to 0z.

[gpsnowman]

A bone-chilling 70 degrees this early a.m On December 10. Brrrrrr.

[Iceresistance]

A bone-chilling 70 degrees this early a.m On December 10. Brrrrrr.

Hold up! I don't recall 70 Degrees in December in Northern Texas before!

[gpsnowman]

A bone-chilling 70 degrees this early a.m On December 10. Brrrrrr.

Hold up! I don't recall 70 Degrees in December in Northern Texas before!

Me either. Just a ridiculous overnight low temp. Wait!! I think it dropped to 69 just now.

[Iceresistance]

A bone-chilling 70 degrees this early a.m On December 10. Brrrrrr.

Hold up! I don't recall 70 Degrees in December in Northern Texas before!

Me either. Just a ridiculous overnight low temp. Wait!! I think it dropped to 69 just now.

I'm currently in the upper 50s, which is WAY above normal lows for December