Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txagwxman]

At least the ECMWF is lining up for a cold shot day 10 into the Midwest/Plains...maybe it will verify. SLP 1035, with -20C to -15C 850 temps.

[Ntxw]

At least the ECMWF is lining up for a cold shot day 10 into the Midwest/Plains...maybe it will verify. SLP 1035, with -20C to -15C 850 temps.

Yeah everyone has been stating that. Usually you look for source regions and from what I can see all of the major cold fields (Northern Canada, Alaska, and Siberia) are all very cold. Need a pattern shift though to dislodge it.

[txagwxman]

Man, this thread dies when there is no cold.

[Ntxw]

yup =P throw in snow\ice chances and it will light up like a Christmas tree

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 10-day Euro from today's 12z run has a cold look to it.

[gboudx]

Looks like models have been neglecting the low\wave over Kansas up until this point. FW AFD. Should be interesting to see what it does.

What it did was take the forecast of 0.10-0.25" of rain for my area to the near 1.5" we actually got.

[Portastorm]

As has been discussed, the AO and the NAO are now progged to go negative again by the end of the month with a positive PNA pattern supporting a ridge-trough alignment of the continental US. All signs lined up now pointing to a cold February much like the period from which we have temporarily emerged. I would expect the operational GFS runs to start reflecting this more accurately later in their runs.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)



NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION



PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION (PNA)

[srainhoutx]

There are hints that this will also be a west based -NAO via guidance. Certainly bears watching as that would suggest a deeper trough in the Central CONUS. Also with Pacific RECON missions for the upcoming El Nino storms in the West and Southwest, we are seeing some better solutions in the OP guidance runs as well. Also, the stratospheric warming event is under way and we are also seeing a reversal of Tropospheric wind flows as well. This suggests that winter will infact make another appearance as we head into late January/early February ( +/- a few days ). Stay tuned and enjoy the January Thaw.

[southerngale]

Oh, btw, that rain finally did arrive, Friday night into yesterday morning. I don't know how much, but a decent amount.

Now when is the snow coming back?

Woohooo... I'm ready for some football!!

[severe]

As has been discussed, the AO and the NAO are now progged to go negative again by the end of the month with a positive PNA pattern supporting a ridge-trough alignment of the continental US. All signs lined up now pointing to a cold February much like the period from which we have temporarily emerged. I would expect the operational GFS runs to start reflecting this more accurately later in their runs.

Yuck, if it's looking anything like the cold and miserable period we just left (with no snow).............bring on Spring already.

[vbhoutex]

I tell you what. It may be a January thaw, but yesterday at the HPO Mall in Cypress, TX. it still felt like winter wit the clouds, wind and "cold" temps before the sun finally came out late in the afternoon. don't know what the low was this am, but it was 41f when I got up and that is cold enough after what we've just had. I really do believe we have seen more "winter" here in Houston in the last month and a half than we have seen in the last 5 years!

[Ntxw]

I tell you what. It may be a January thaw, but yesterday at the HPO Mall in Cypress, TX. it still felt like winter wit the clouds, wind and "cold" temps before the sun finally came out late in the afternoon. don't know what the low was this am, but it was 41f when I got up and that is cold enough after what we've just had. I really do believe we have seen more "winter" here in Houston in the last month and a half than we have seen in the last 5 years!

It's all relative, weather like this thaw we are in last year would be considered cool. This year we've experience much colder temperatures for a longer duration therefore this feels somewhat like beach weather until old man winters comes roaring back in.

[vbhoutex]

I tell you what. It may be a January thaw, but yesterday at the HPO Mall in Cypress, TX. it still felt like winter wit the clouds, wind and "cold" temps before the sun finally came out late in the afternoon. don't know what the low was this am, but it was 41f when I got up and that is cold enough after what we've just had. I really do believe we have seen more "winter" here in Houston in the last month and a half than we have seen in the last 5 years!

It's all relative, weather like this thaw we are in last year would be considered cool. This year we've experience much colder temperatures for a longer duration therefore this feels somewhat like beach weather until old man winters comes roaring back in.

You are so right that it is all relative. We have been so spoiled by the mild winters we have been having here in SE TX. Of course there are a few exceptions with our recent "snow miracles". I do remember when we had weather similar to this more often. And as has been stated elsewhere in this thread all the signs are there that we will see "true winter" again in the not too distant future.

[cycloneye]

Portastorm,Steve and any member who are always interested in what ENSO is doing,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.This update shows some decreases including a modest decrease of .01 at El Nino 3-4.We can't say yet about a trend of sustained weakening but it looks like it has peaked.

Last Week numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.2ºC
Niño1+2= +0.3ºC

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.7ºC
Niño 3= +1.1ºC
Niño1+2= +0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Portastorm]

Thanks so much cycloneye for keeping us updated on the Nino numbers. It does look as if it may have peaked and it also looks like the predominantly west-based Nino continues. That is, of course, good news for an active southern jet continuing.

At least some of us here in Southtown USA want a taste of wintry weather before our beautiful spring kicks in and then summer's brutal heat hammer comes down!

[Snowman67]

Starting at about 348hrs the GFS goes cold again with precip. I know it's a long ways out, and not sure if it will continue in subsequent runs, but at least there is some sort of indication that old man winter may not be ready to leave for good yet.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

You all should take a peak at what JB said today about the upcoming super stratospheric warming event and major cold outbreaks.

The winter is not even close to being over if this becomes fact. It might make the early January outbreak look like chicken feed.

[Ntxw]

February is always fun in Texas winter wise

[srainhoutx]

You all should take a peak at what JB said today about the upcoming super stratospheric warming event and major cold outbreaks.

The winter is not even close to being over if this becomes fact. It might make the early January outbreak look like chicken feed.

Many signals continue to trend in the right direction. There was a bit of down turn in the AO ensembles (not as negative) last night, but I suspect this was more of a blip than a trend. Also, the MJO pulse appears to be a bit stronger than forecasted. That would tend to add to the mix. The 12Z OP GFS came right back with the colder air solution for the first few days of February at the end of it's run. Enjoy the warmup will it lasts.

[AggieSpirit]

You all should take a peak at what JB said today about the upcoming super stratospheric warming event and major cold outbreaks.

The winter is not even close to being over if this becomes fact. It might make the early January outbreak look like chicken feed.

Many signals continue to trend in the right direction. There was a bit of down turn in the AO ensembles (not as negative) last night, but I suspect this was more of a blip than a trend. Also, the MJO pulse appears to be a bit stronger than forecasted. That would tend to add to the mix. The 12Z OP GFS came right back with the colder air solution for the first few days of February at the end of it's run. Enjoy the warmup will it lasts.

Mid-70s. Bluebonnets might bloom early at this rate....