Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

The front was the result of the pattern change, not the cause.

Rats..I thought I was onto something...Rats...

[dhweather]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

Two weeks out ....

[Portastorm]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

Hey ... not fair ... I'm throwing a flag. 15 yards on wxman57 for unsportsmanlike conduct!

I did preface my comments earlier today with the admission I had minimal factual support. As I said the pattern will either go zonal or the Eastern trough will retrograde some. You'd love the former, I'd love the latter. We shall see.

[Portastorm]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

Two weeks out ....

At least I didn't forecast a Cat 5 in the Gulf!

[Tireman4]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

Hey ... not fair ... I'm throwing a flag. 15 yards on wxman57 for unsportsmanlike conduct!

I did preface my comments earlier today with the admission I had minimal factual support. As I said the pattern will either go zonal or the Eastern trough will retrograde some. You'd love the former, I'd love the latter. We shall see.

You know that is two flags on him in one week. LOL. What happens after three flags? LOL

[Texas Snowman]

I believe a lifetime ban.

[Texas Snowman]

Soooo, the story of today is that we're not to trust those pesky models two weeks out when they show cold air and winter weather.

But they ARE completely trustworthy when they show warm weather, spring, summer, a desirable weather pattern staying in place, etc.

Did I miss anything?

Meanwhile, back to regular programming...

[dhweather]

I'm just going to throw this out there as I have minimal factual support to back up my opinion ... but I think we will see a pattern change around Feb. 20th or so ... maybe a little after. The existing pattern of a ridge-trough over the CONUS cannot last forever. In winter these patterns can and do lock in for a while but they usually don't last consecutively more than a month or so. I see one of two things happening: either the CONUS pattern relaxes to a more zonal flow which would mean drier and warmer for us in Texas OR we will see the mean trough position retrograde further west, placing Texas closer to the base of the trough and in a better location for cold air and storminess. The CFSv2 hints at this development. We'll see what happens.

Two weeks out ....

At least I didn't forecast a Cat 5 in the Gulf!

Heh, have you seen Maue's tweets in the last few days? "something" off the SE coast.

Cat 2? ha!

[Tireman4]

Two weeks out .... [/quote]

At least I didn't forecast a Cat 5 in the Gulf! [/quote]

Heh, have you seen Maue's tweets in the last few days? "something" off the SE coast.

Cat 2? ha![/quote]

Funny...just funny...LOL

[Portastorm]

Heh, the GFS can't even get the next 12 hours right lately. The overnight 0z run predicted KAUS would have a high temp today of 46 and 0.05" of rainfall by now. Well, in reality the temperature never rose above 42 and KAUS has already received 0.25" of rainfall.

[Tireman4]

Heh, the GFS can't even get the next 12 hours right lately. The overnight 0z run predicted AUS would have a high temp today of 46 and 0.05" of rainfall by now. Well, in reality the temperature never rose above 42 and KAUS has already received 0.25" of rainfall.

GFS...Good For Something....baawaahhaaa..

[Brent]

Heh, the GFS can't even get the next 12 hours right lately. The overnight 0z run predicted KAUS would have a high temp today of 46 and 0.05" of rainfall by now. Well, in reality the temperature never rose above 42 and KAUS has already received 0.25" of rainfall.

Lol and yet some people take it as fact when it backs up what they want..

Oh and I've been guilty of it too...

[Texas Snowman]

Off topic, but this is where most of our attention is at right now (the winter thread). So I thought I'd share this resource I came across today: a free, live streaming tornado forecasting workshop by Rich Thompson of the Storm Prediction Center.

Starts tonight, runs on Tuesday nights from Feb. 3 until April 21.

Here's the link:

http://live.som.ou.edu

[Texas Snowman]

It looks like the live streaming feeds will be archived, so if you missed it tonight, you should be able to watch it at a later date.

[amawea]

Off topic, but this is where most of our attention is at right now (the winter thread). So I thought I'd share this resource I came across today: a free, live streaming tornado forecasting workshop by Rich Thompson of the Storm Prediction Center.

Starts tonight, runs on Tuesday nights from Feb. 3 until April 21.

Here's the link:

http://live.som.ou.edu

As a side note with the spring storm season approaching I thought I would post this site. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma is going to have classes available on site and online each Tuesday, Feb 3 thru April 21st from 7:30 to 9p.m. Don't worry if you can't view it live it will also be archived. It looks like a great opportunity.
Here's the link of the ad.

https://www.facebook.com/212222899921/p ... 22/?type=1

I posted this back on Jan 25th to this thread.

[weatherdude1108]

I got 0.5" of liquid gold out of this event. About what was estimated.

[Ntxw]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

How about Higos? The maybe recurving model storm typhoon at least per the GFS. Euro ehh not so much, but if that did happen that could qualify!

[BigB0882]

All this wasted rain. Wouldn't this have been amazing as an overunning event? I hate living in southeast Louisiana sometimes. Ok, most of the time. I WILL retire somewhere with 4 seasons or somewhere tropical where the weather is the same year round. I want it all or just give me warmth year round.

[Ntxw]

Sure they get a cold pattern wrong but will nail a warm pattern...

I wouldn't say that, but I would say that any prediction of impending cold and/or winter weather in Texas needs to be backed up by something more than "the models are forecasting warm, they're often wrong that far out, so the real outcome must be cold".

What is going to break down that persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska or shift it much farther west, pumping the ridge up over the Pole vs. into western British Columbia?

Hey ... not fair ... I'm throwing a flag. 15 yards on wxman57 for unsportsmanlike conduct!

I did preface my comments earlier today with the admission I had minimal factual support. As I said the pattern will either go zonal or the Eastern trough will retrograde some. You'd love the former, I'd love the latter. We shall see.

It will retrograde, its the natural process of the Pacific as the jet strengthens and weakens. Wavelengths get shorter the later we go so it gets tougher to sustain cold (week+). Pacific looks like Nino pattern second half of February, ENS retrograde riding to the NE Pacific domain.

[wxman57]

No sign of a pattern change in the new Euro. Even warmer across western Canada at day 10. Ensembles are similar through hour 360.



12Z GFS has some below-normal air into Texas at hour 384. Nothing more than a light freeze, most likely. There's just no sign of the Gulf of Alaska low breaking down.