Texas Winter 2022-2023

[JayDT]

18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.

Looks like i’ll be up for the 0z run I just really hope this system delivers for us here in DFW.

[bubba hotep]

18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.

Very minor differences from 12z; that's why we can get big surprises with these types of setups.

[Ntxw]

18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.

Very minor differences from 12z; that's why we can get big surprises with these types of setups.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012118/ecmwf_z500_vort_us_27.png

It's like that second March event in 2008. Areas that got the dynamic changeover had thundersnow from 4-9" (Denton) while nearby where it didn't change over a whole lot of cold rain (Dallas).

[Itryatgolf]

I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway.

It all depends on the MJO, if it does not move into Phase 4, then the GFS solution may just work out better.

I’m a little more optimistic looking at Euro MJO, it doesn’t make sense with its 500mb depiction. MJO crashes like this, that Arctic door will be locked up across the lower 48 similar to what GFS Op is showing
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF.png

Euro mjo is a decent depiction. Gefs, not so much. 4-6 phases are blowtorch city for sure.

[Brent]

Meanwhile I still have mets up here and OKC not sure we totally changeover doesn't add up if DFW is in play to me. Somebody around here is gonna get buried if DFW is really in play is my guess

[Itryatgolf]

Meanwhile I still have mets up here and OKC not sure we totally changeover doesn't add up if DFW is in play to me. Somebody around here is gonna get buried if DFW is really in play

Brent, I hope you get hit hard buddy. Hope we all get plastered before winter is over

[Brent]

Meanwhile I still have mets up here and OKC not sure we totally changeover doesn't add up if DFW is in play to me. Somebody around here is gonna get buried if DFW is really in play

Brent, I hope you get hit hard buddy. Hope we all get plastered before winter is over

Well see I guess. My gut feeling isn't hyped up today for some reason

[Itryatgolf]

Meanwhile I still have mets up here and OKC not sure we totally changeover doesn't add up if DFW is in play to me. Somebody around here is gonna get buried if DFW is really in play

Brent, I hope you get hit hard buddy. Hope we all get hit hard before winter is done.


Well see I guess. My gut feeling isn't hyped up today for some reason

Brent, I hope you get hit hard buddy. Hope we all get plastered before winter is over

It was very borderline in temps before there was even a storm that showed up on the models to be honest. Not much cold air around. If there was then it would true pandemonium lol

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile I still have mets up here and OKC not sure we totally changeover doesn't add up if DFW is in play to me. Somebody around here is gonna get buried if DFW is really in play

Brent, I hope you get hit hard buddy. Hope we all get plastered before winter is over

Amen to that. I’ll have a drink on that one

[Quixotic]

18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.

Very minor differences from 12z; that's why we can get big surprises with these types of setups.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012118/ecmwf_z500_vort_us_27.png

It's like that second March event in 2008. Areas that got the dynamic changeover had thundersnow from 4-9" (Denton) while nearby where it didn't change over a whole lot of cold rain (Dallas).

One of my favorites even though it didn’t do much for me (3-4”) but my friend 10 miles away got almost 10”. The flakes were the size of my hands. Huge. Thunder. Lightning. So unusual.

[Itryatgolf]

Very minor differences from 12z; that's why we can get big surprises with these types of setups.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012118/ecmwf_z500_vort_us_27.png

It's like that second March event in 2008. Areas that got the dynamic changeover had thundersnow from 4-9" (Denton) while nearby where it didn't change over a whole lot of cold rain (Dallas).

One of my favorites even though it didn’t do much for me (3-4”) but my friend 10 miles away got almost 10”. The flakes were the size of my hands. Huge. Thunder. Lightning. So unusual.

ULL's can be huge snow producers if they set up just right

[Quixotic]

I’m gonna not be Eyore this time. Whatever is going on, I see a dynamic system with proximal temps. Someone is going to get something memorable.

[Brent]

I’m gonna not be Eyore this time. Whatever is going on, I see a dynamic system with proximal temps. Someone is going to get something memorable.

That's kind of been my theory from the beginning but where is it memorable

They are also famously known as a weatherman's woe

[SnowintheFalls]

I’m gonna not be Eyore this time. Whatever is going on, I see a dynamic system with proximal temps. Someone is going to get something memorable.

That's kind of been my theory from the beginning but where is it memorable

They are also famously known as a weatherman's woe

Our mets have backed off of snow. They are talking about mostly a mix with temps above freezing. Hopefully something shows on the 0z.

[Brent]

I’m gonna not be Eyore this time. Whatever is going on, I see a dynamic system with proximal temps. Someone is going to get something memorable.

That's kind of been my theory from the beginning but where is it memorable

They are also famously known as a weatherman's woe

Our mets have backed off of snow. They are talking about mostly a mix with temps above freezing. Hopefully something shows on the 12z.

Even up here some of the mets aren't convinced and I mean we've been close to the highest totals even now. Temps just seem borderline everywhere. Even Mike Morgan isn't that hyped and he was all over the December flizzard

[Cpv17]

Hello 0z CMC!!

[SnowintheFalls]

Hello 0z CMC!!

CMC coming out stronger than the others. I'm curious to see what the Euro has to say.

[Quixotic]

I’m gonna not be Eyore this time. Whatever is going on, I see a dynamic system with proximal temps. Someone is going to get something memorable.

[Brent]

GFS is very close to a big storm here

Also wow at the end of the CMC... December flashbacks

[TropicalTundra]

A few hi-res models hinting at light flurries early morning for Tulsa (that includes you, Brent).

Unfortunately though models just aren’t budging with moving it east. Keeping it over NW Texas. If actual temps are false and they’re cooler than the models this would definitely help bring something to the I-35 corridor. Just need to hope.