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cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:You all should take a peak at what JB said today about the upcoming super stratospheric warming event and major cold outbreaks.
The winter is not even close to being over if this becomes fact. It might make the early January outbreak look like chicken feed.
Is there a link to that or is it for paid subscribers only? I wouldn't exactly call what has turned out to be one of the two worst Arctic outbreaks since 1990 "chicken feed", but yeah it technically can get colder here by 5-10 degrees in the more extreme events.
Note though that since the close of January looks mild an extreme event would have to be pushed back into February, which makes it that much harder for a really bad outbreak to occur after a warm spell will have melted away much of the snow to our north. The early January event also came at the end of a long general pattern of below normal temperatures, and trying to get back into another nasty rut like that after weeks of improving winter conditions will make it even more difficult. Sure it'll get cold again, but unless some massive pool of cold weather starts building in Alaska a la January 1989 or 1951 I don't see an historic outbreak in the cards (and neither of those winters were El Niño years). Both of those winters, along with the textbook case of 1933, had very mild Januarys with no major cold discharges like what we just had. What grimly looked like was turning into a nasty late-70s type winter just a couple of weeks ago appears well on its way to self-correcting
We just emerged from some of the coldest weather in a generation, you have to go back to 1996 to find a comparable outbreak, expecting anything colder is probably unrealistic and something nobody is hoping for. Now next year may be another matter, severe winters often tend to come in clusters
Your point is very valid, but I caution anyone to think that we can not get cold again in February in TX. We appear to still be heading into an active period beyond the January Thaw. There appears to be some major storms to affect the Rockies and Plains in the days ahead. In fact this appears to be the area of focus for any cold air instead of points E. The source regions in Siberia and AK as well as W Canada have been virtually untapped and building. There are indications that a cross polar flow will establish beginning in late January and continue into early February. This may infact drain those regions of the cold air and be our last true cold of the season around here. While we have warmed and the snow pack to our N is slowly thinning, additional storms will once again add to the snow cover. Signals from guidance continue to suggest that the first week of February and just beyond will be rather chilly and stormy for our area. We shall see.
