Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

As has been mentioned here numerous times so far this week, the models busted big time on the strength of the early week cold, perhaps they'll be just as reliable and trustworthy and bust on your beloved warmth and "no pattern change" in the extended period.

At any rate, even if they prove to be more towards your liking, wintertime is back in my neck of the woods. There's a chance of freezing drizzle in the Red River Valley forecast this evening along with a stiff northerly wind and temps down into the 20s. That sounds just about right, perfect bike riding weather.

Think I'll get some wood off the stack for another fire. Maybe start making a pot of chili too. Wintertime, what's not to like?

[wxman57]

And again, give me more than "the models are often wrong that far out" as an argument for a pattern change. Point to signs that the upper low is departing the Gulf of Alaska in the next few weeks, and the ridge building up over the Pole to bring some cold air into western Canada.

Meanwhile, just saw a tweet with a couple pics of the snow in early February of 2011:

[Brent]

Oh sure rub it in...

[Yukon Cornelius]

The wind has already switched to out of the North, earlier than forecasted, with a temp of 48. The forecasted high today was suppose to be 53. With the front already coming through, cloudy and already 2:00, I don't see us reaching 53. The low tonight is forecasted to be 23.

[Texas Snowman]

Model proof? Can't give it to you. And yes, as a winter weather enthusiast, I'm looking for hope in a winter of discontent.

But the winter isn't over yet. And as Porta and Ntxw have opined, past climo would suggest that there would be a pattern change forthcoming and that you don't get the mild ride the rest of the way that you might want.

They're not the only ones that feel this way either. Larry Cosgrove spoke directly to this issue over the weekend:

"Since the various forecast models that I use have had relatively poor verification rates this winter, I am forced to look for clues elsewhere."

What are those clues?

Cosgrove: "The Madden-Julian Oscillation is usually a good place to start, but that entity has been quite unstable over the past few months, going through a range of intensities and positions, none of which are well handled by the various longer term computer models. The one useful feature has been the chain of warmer temperature anomalies from Nino 3.4 to the western shoreline of North America. Very similar to the winter of 1957-58, you can see the imprint on 500MB ridging from Alaska southeastward to Mexico.

Normally, that impressive -EPO/+PNA type ridge structure would lead to fearsome cold in the eastern two thirds of the continent. But you can see by averages in January, moderate temperatures under the ridge complex have often bolted into the Upper Midwest. So while Arctic intrusions have targeted parts of the nation, the lack of consistency has resulted in more cases of mild readings than what one would expect for this type of 500MB longwave pattern. I suspect that the very marginal-looking NAO signal is part of the reason for the lack of entrenchment of the cold values

Since the weak El Nino signal will start to lessen and give way to a "neutral positive" environment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, climatology would suggest that most of February and March will be on the cold side in the central and eastern U.S. Even the usually warm-biased CFS version supports this idea. But what concerns me is the potential for storminess. We have seen some very vigorous systems emerge from northern Mexico, as evidenced by the current low pressure area threatening the Midwest and Northeast. If, as forecast, a broad mAk vortex sets up between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands, there will be more opportunities for digging polar jet stream shortwaves to dig, kick, and merge with concurrent energy from the southern branch.

This type of scenario is predicted to occur in the 11 - 15 day period. The GFS series has a slow-moving, deepening storm of the Miller A type along the Gulf Coast, then grinding its way to an established cAk position in eastern QC. All of the schemes seem to support the notion of a long-lasting -EPO/+PNA ridge complex to the right of the sub-Aleutian gyre. If so, any worries about a lack of snow east of the Rocky Mountains may be quickly squashed.

I said, may be. It has been THAT kind of winter."

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic ... 0glThQDnq8

[Texas Snowman]

And yes, it HAS been that kind of a winter for those of us here looking for winter mischief and fun.

In the meantime, enjoy that north wind tomorrow.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh sure rub it in...

With the simple fact that we all (well, most of us opining on this thread) live in the great state of Texas, the unvarnished truth is that Wxman 57 is always going to have the odds in his favor. At least in terms of winning discussions on this board about possible winter mischief, cold, snow and ice. It's just the nature of the beast living so far south. And that's true to the north of I-20 where I live and especially so down south towards Houston and Austin.

But he doesn't always win or get to rub it in our faces.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that the Super Bowl snowstorm he alluded to above (NWS text) was one of his rare losses. I'd have to go back and look, but if I remember correctly, he wasn't impressed with snow chances for that mid-week storm even if Porta, Ntxw and some others felt there was some fair potential there. Even up until the snow actually started lighting up the radar that night, only a few on this thread believed that there would be anything substantial here in Texas from that event.

But the end result was a pretty memorable snow event (on top of the previous one) that Jerry Jones would just as soon forget as to remember.

[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]And again, give me more than "the models are often wrong that far out" as an argument for a pattern change. Point to signs that the upper low is departing the Gulf of Alaska in the next few weeks, and the ridge building up over the Pole to bring some cold air into western Canada.

Well dadgum it, the low cannot stay there forever. It has to move one day.

[weatherdude1108]

And again, give me more than "the models are often wrong that far out" as an argument for a pattern change. Point to signs that the upper low is departing the Gulf of Alaska in the next few weeks, and the ridge building up over the Pole to bring some cold air into western Canada.

Well dadgum it, the low cannot stay there forever. It has to move one day.

That's what I'm thinkin'! Stubborn low! Coriolis force has to nudge it sometime!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS continues to disguise the coming cold quite well. Not even a hint of any coming cold weather beyond mid month. 12Z Euro & ensembles are similar. I just don't see the pattern breaking down any time soon. Here are some meteograms from the 12Z GFS for DFW and Houston (IAH). Very little precip in northeast Texas. Just a bit of precip in SE TX.

Dallas - Ft. Worth:




And Houston:

[Brent]

Meanwhile... in Boston...

[Texas Snowman]

That gives me an idea! Let's take up a collection. Surely there's some sort of tropical meteorology conference that we can send one of our members to in Boston. Maybe we can even get enough to send his bicycle up there with him.

[Brent]

:uarrow: That gives me an idea! Let's take up a collection. Surely there's some sort of tropical meteorology conference that we can send one of our members to in Boston. Maybe we can even get enough to send his bicycle up there with him.

LOL...

[hriverajr]

The truth is until a pattern change occurs (if) It's a safe bet to go with persistence. Also climatology is on wxman57's side. He is playing it smart. But some day...

[somethingfunny]

This just isn't our year. We've had alot of great winters recently but the long term average in Dallas is one inch of snow per year...

I've lived here since 2002 and until our recent run of awesome winters I remember we were generally good for one weak wintry precip event of some sort per winter. I just can't believe it came in mid November this time.

[Tejas89]

32 and drizzle at the big airport. A lot of the metroplex may be awaking to ice on cars and patios this morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ralph's Weather]

34 and drizzle here. Be careful in North Texas where temps have fallen into the 20s if there is any drizzle present.

[Yukon Cornelius]

27 and drizzle for most of the night here. Nothing stuck to roads.

[wxman57]

Here's a 6z GFS meteogram for D-FW. Big warm-up over the coming week followed by a Valentine's Day cold front with cold rain followed by a light freeze. GFS has Houston down to 30 (north side) on the 14th.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the we have another situation of the surface CAA overpreforming models even the short range ones along with that the drizzle seems to be more widespread than expected. The freezing line has moved all the way to Canton it may sneak its way close to my house in Hideaway. It does not sound like there are any travel issues across North Texas though temps are in the 20s on the NW side so watch out for isolated icing on bridges. Icing on elevated surfaces is possible across all of North Texas and possible in western Northeast Texas. Not sure it makes it much above 40 in Northeast Texas today.