Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

If we want to increase our odds of winter weather, don't you think we need to get rid of this pesky negative PNA ??? We are almost 4 Deg F above normal so far this winter with very minimal chances of frozen precip...need a pattern change quickly!!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/compo ... 25YWLj.gif

Our problem is not the -PNA. With a -EPO the -PNA has allowed the direct discharge into the southern plains instead of east when cold has been there. The issue has been the near record +AO this winter, not a little positive a lot positive. Several times there were forecasted (albeit longer range) -AO only turn out to be record +AO. We've had less than a week of -AO values...When the AO is so positive the SE ridge flexes. +PNA can be chilly but it's mostly boring NW flow. Which is what the next week or so is. I'm hoping the SSW will change the AO in Feb.

[Ntxw]

More +AO to come at least through the end of the month. Cold will be coming from the EPO should that pan out. Still to me Feb 1989 may show up again. Sharp, cold early month and it warmed rest of Feb that year.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Finally had another freeze of 32 last night/this morning. Looks like a few freezes are forecasted this week but nothing to write home about. Hopefully these light freezes aren't the only "cold" that we have to look forward to for the rest of winter.

[bubba hotep]

Lol... It would be hard to draw up a worse run than the 6z GFS. Bone dry with temps pushing 80 at DFW by Feb 6th.

[wxman57]

Lol... It would be hard to draw up a worse run than the 6z GFS. Bone dry with temps pushing 80 at DFW by Feb 6th.

The trend is not your friend if you're looking for winter weather in Texas over the next couple of weeks. Temps DO look closer to normal over the next couple of weeks, though. Normal in Houston this time of year is a low of 43-44F and a high of 64F. With the amount of sunshine increasing every day and the sun getting higher in the sky all the time, normal temps are slowly rising. Winter weather may still be possible from mid February to early March, but I plan to keep my hand on the "up" button on the Texas thermometer for a while.

[Ntxw]

Getting back to normal is not turning it up heat miser thankfully. Probably one more abnormally warm day tomorrow then it's back to seasonal for DFW (50s hi/30s low) with NW flow aloft. Not terribly cold, not warm either but boring. Strat warming is still setting up shop now for the final week of January and any fruits will not happen until the second week (should it reflect to the AO). It seems like the second half of January has taken forever to pass....we're just now entering the final week.

In other news Nino 1+2 has warmed to +1.6C while 3.4 is at -0.2C. Some processes towards warm ENSO is ongoing. More clustering of guidance tilting the arrow towards another possible El Nino event. But the spring barrier tells us it is far to early to know for certain but a good educated guess. It may yield a wet spring should we continue the path we are going.

[Portastorm]

Getting back to normal is not turning it up heat miser thankfully. Probably one more abnormally warm day tomorrow then it's back to seasonal for DFW (50s hi/30s low) with NW flow aloft. Not terribly cold, not warm either but boring. Strat warming is still setting up shop now for the final week of January and any fruits will not happen until the second week (should it reflect to the AO). It seems like the second half of January has taken forever to pass....we're just now entering the final week.

In other news Nino 1+2 has warmed to +1.6C while 3.4 is at -0.2C. Some processes towards warm ENSO is ongoing. More clustering of guidance tilting the arrow towards another possible El Nino event. But the spring barrier tells us it is far to early to know for certain but a good educated guess. It may yield a wet spring should we continue the path we are going.

Dr. Judah Cohen updates his blog every Monday and I will be curious to see the latest. Last week he talked about the AO predicted to go negative by the second week of February. He also discussed the potential displacement of the polar vortex and subsequent impacts on the CONUS by early February. At this point, I'm frantically searching the ground for any crumb of winter promise I can find! LOL.

You know, if wxman57 keeps this up, I'm going to start wishing for tropical systems in the Gulf every weekend from June through September. They'll just stay out in the Gulf and never threaten anyone ... but they will keep forecasters busy. That'll fix him. He'll never get time off! LOL.

[Ntxw]

Dr. Judah Cohen updates his blog every Monday and I will be curious to see the latest. Last week he talked about the AO predicted to go negative by the second week of February. He also discussed the potential displacement of the polar vortex and subsequent impacts on the CONUS by early February. At this point, I'm frantically searching the ground for any crumb of winter promise I can find! LOL.

You know, if wxman57 keeps this up, I'm going to start wishing for tropical systems in the Gulf every weekend from June through September. They'll just stay out in the Gulf and never threaten anyone ... but they will keep forecasters busy. That'll fix him. He'll never get time off! LOL.

It's really tough to be in the camp of -AO given winter trends but in all fairness we have to let the SSW/MMW happen first. So far we've only discussed guidance showing SSW but this week is when the event actually occurs. Then it will take another week or so for propagation to the troposphere.Still live or die by the Pacific meanwhile.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Getting back to normal is not turning it up heat miser thankfully. Probably one more abnormally warm day tomorrow then it's back to seasonal for DFW (50s hi/30s low) with NW flow aloft. Not terribly cold, not warm either but boring. Strat warming is still setting up shop now for the final week of January and any fruits will not happen until the second week (should it reflect to the AO). It seems like the second half of January has taken forever to pass....we're just now entering the final week.

In other news Nino 1+2 has warmed to +1.6C while 3.4 is at -0.2C. Some processes towards warm ENSO is ongoing. More clustering of guidance tilting the arrow towards another possible El Nino event. But the spring barrier tells us it is far to early to know for certain but a good educated guess. It may yield a wet spring should we continue the path we are going.

+1.6C in 1+2?!?!? Holy moly i never noticed this warmup. Thats not good for us and explains alot.

[wxman57]

You know, if wxman57 keeps this up, I'm going to start wishing for tropical systems in the Gulf every weekend from June through September. They'll just stay out in the Gulf and never threaten anyone ... but they will keep forecasters busy. That'll fix him. He'll never get time off! LOL.

We have lots of clients offshore all across the Gulf, from the Bay of Campeche to south of Alabama & the FL Panhandle. It's been so long since those areas have been significantly threatened that our clients are beginning to question whether they still need us. Having a bunch of storms churning around in the Gulf would help. You'll have to find something else to threaten me with.

[Portastorm]

Dang it! I'm foiled yet again.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Dang it! I'm foiled yet again.

You want me to just start a spring thread and we can forget about all this winter talk?

[bubba hotep]

The models seem to be struggling with the MJO and are trending less amplified to even incoherent. Add that to them probably rushing the degradation of the low frequency atmospheric background nina state and there might be reason to think that they are too warm in the longer range. The forecasted rapid crash in the PNA can be a precursor to a Pacific jet driven big -EPO. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like early Jan -EPO cold after Feb 7 +/- or the models could be right.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Dang it! I'm foiled yet again.

You want me to just start a spring thread and we can forget about all this winter talk?

Oh the hubris..oh my goodness...lol... So you are calling for cancellation of Winter sir (Wxman57)?

[gboudx]

Having a bunch of storms churning around in the Gulf would help. You'll have to find something else to threaten me with.

Then we'll hope, as usual for me, no tropical systems in the GoM so your clients really begin to question the need for your services. Let there be wicked shear, and plenty of SAL, throughout the tropical Atlantic basin!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is back to -EPO with Calender change. Not 300hrs but 200+.

Feb 1989 lurks

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Good Lord, you weren't kidding about 1+2

Niño 4
-0.1ºC
Niño 3.4
-0.2ºC
Niño 3
0.1ºC
Niño 1+2
1.6ºC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good Lord, you weren't kidding about 1+2

Niño 4
-0.1ºC
Niño 3.4
-0.2ºC
Niño 3
0.1ºC
Niño 1+2
1.6ºC

How did that creep up on us? This is why california and the mountain west has been so active recently. I expect my dreaded HP off the coast of Mexico to make a return. This doesnt mean we wont get a -EPO soon though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z GFS is back to -EPO with Calender change. Not 300hrs but 200+.

Feb 1989 lurks

I think that timeframe seems a bit more reasonable.

On my selfish Colorado forecast, getting into a timeframe with more confidence but still lots of uncertainty, actually hoping the HP off the coast of mexico rears its head. Really spins up big ULL's through the plains that way.

[wxman57]

Good Lord, you weren't kidding about 1+2

Niño 4
-0.1ºC
Niño 3.4
-0.2ºC
Niño 3
0.1ºC
Niño 1+2
1.6ºC

That's a very odd spike. I'm looking at the SST anomaly graphic on WxBell's site. There's a small pocket of very warm water near the coast of Mexico south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, temps are close to normal or slightly below normal in the region.