Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

The numbers for DFW don't show a delay. Cool seasons are warmer yes especially in the late Fall, but March and April have been above normal or in a few cases near normal. While there are cold snaps in March and April it isn't enough to bring down to below normal for the months overall. Cold season is shortened for quite a few years now.

[DukeMu]

I am not a meterologist, but having lived in the South Central US my whole life, I can objectively state the winters are generally warmer and shorter. I recall growing up in Dallas there was even snow in November a few times. How much of this is attributable to climate change vs. normal weather fluctuations...?

I also feel it's staying hotter, longer. September has been extremely hot in the past 10 years vs 25 years ago when I was little. Octobers seem to be warmer, and we've had more warm Halloween seasons recently than "fall like" weather.

Over the last 33 years in CLL, Falls are now warmer on average. Winters are nearly the same on average (about 1.5°F higher), but with wider variation. Summers suck, but 2023 blasted all the records for temp. and lack of rain (May - September). Extremes (typical for Texas) have become even more so, whether flood or drought in precip. For the first 15 years we lived in Texas and College Station, there were 2 ice storms and 1 barely covering the ground snow event. From 2007 - now we've had 12 snow or ice events in CLL, including the two five inch snow/ice twofers in January and February of 2021. Our average for freezing temps for the low is 13/winter season. This year, which will average out probably warmer than last year, has seen about 20 freezes so far.

As expected we did react 32°F for a low IMFY. Another light freeze is possible this weekend. After that climo will take a hand, and it will take a freaky front to induce a freeze in CLL...which could and historically happens as a coin flip most years.

[DukeMu]

The numbers for DFW don't show a delay. Cool seasons are warmer yes especially in the late Fall, but March and April have been above normal or in a few cases near normal. While there are cold snaps in March and April it isn't enough to bring down to below normal for the months overall. Cold season is shortened for quite a few years now.

The other thing I've noticed over 33 years and it is substantiated by lots of hard data...Severe season is earlier, and more severe, especially from Texas through the South: Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

Houston is generally (but not always) protected in the spring by a cap (dry air from Mexico) at mid-levels.

College Station is right on the edge - we need a wary eye during severe season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The numbers for DFW don't show a delay. Cool seasons are warmer yes especially in the late Fall, but March and April have been above normal or in a few cases near normal. While there are cold snaps in March and April it isn't enough to bring down to below normal for the months overall. Cold season is shortened for quite a few years now.

Much of it has to be related to the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

[orangeblood]

The numbers for DFW don't show a delay. Cool seasons are warmer yes especially in the late Fall, but March and April have been above normal or in a few cases near normal. While there are cold snaps in March and April it isn't enough to bring down to below normal for the months overall. Cold season is shortened for quite a few years now.

Much of it has to be related to the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

No way of knowing if it’s correlated or not… could be underwater geothermal, could be hundreds of other things . I’m sorry but man has to stop with the arrogance that it has the correct answers or can solve this equation. we can’t even get a 24 hr high impact forecast correct, no one in the weather profession really has a clue what’s causing what. It’s almost unattainable knowledge considering all of the ever changing, infinite and even unknown variables. The past can give you clues about the future to help you better prepare for mother nature but predicting it long term is a losing proposition. Need to stop wasting tax dollars on long range forecasting models and put the $ to better use!

[jasons2k]

Long range forecasts have come a long way since I was a kid. Overall, the forecasts and models continue to improve with time. It’s certainly worth the investment, especially for certain commodities.

[bubba hotep]

Not that anyone is surprised, but the latest Euro Weeklies say to pack up your snow gear.

[orangeblood]

Long range forecasts have come a long way since I was a kid. Overall, the forecasts and models continue to improve with time. It’s certainly worth the investment, especially for certain commodities.

Possibly but it can also lead to negative impacts as well…The amount of money lost year to year in the commodity futures market is pretty staggering. These long range models can sometimes cause massive speculation in the markets that can lead to huge losses (particularly if they don’t meet forecast expectations) that otherwise likely wouldn’t have occurred. This winter is a great example of that sort of speculation built up in the Nat Gas market by some of the long range below normal forecast prognostications

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The numbers for DFW don't show a delay. Cool seasons are warmer yes especially in the late Fall, but March and April have been above normal or in a few cases near normal. While there are cold snaps in March and April it isn't enough to bring down to below normal for the months overall. Cold season is shortened for quite a few years now.

Much of it has to be related to the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

No way of knowing if it’s correlated or not… could be underwater geothermal, could be hundreds of other things . I’m sorry but man has to stop with the arrogance that it has the correct answers or can solve this equation. we can’t even get a 24 hr high impact forecast correct, no one in the weather profession really has a clue what’s causing what. It’s almost unattainable knowledge considering all of the ever changing, infinite and even unknown variables. The past can give you clues about the future to help you better prepare for mother nature but predicting it long term is a losing proposition. Need to stop wasting tax dollars on long range forecasting models and put the $ to better use!

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

[Ntxw]

Sometimes we have to separate observation and data over thoughts and theories. Not so much projecting as this is the current state. Warmer oceans provides more heat transport as well as moisture. The tropical oceans (all three big ones Pac, ATL, Indian) have all been exceptionally warm. Historically there was a seesaw effect, ENSO, IOD, AMO when one was warm would cause the others to be cold. They are all really warm in tandem. Marine driven air masses have not helped our cold cause this winter so far. Mid January was the exception.

[DukeMu]

Long range forecasts have come a long way since I was a kid. Overall, the forecasts and models continue to improve with time. It’s certainly worth the investment, especially for certain commodities.

The models are so much better than 20 years ago as is climatology.

[wxman57]

Arctic sea ice always shrinks during a warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). The increased flow of warm water from the tropics melts the ice. Eventually, enough ice melts such that the water salinity drops enough to slow the current. This causes the switch to a cool AMO. The current warm AMO started in 1995. It's about time for the switch. Temps across the U.S. were quite cold during the last cool AMO from 1970-1994. I don't like cool AMOs.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Not that anyone is surprised, but the latest Euro Weeklies say to pack up your snow gear.

Definitely. Looking at near 80 here next Tue-Wed, when a few weeks ago it was "Watch the 19th-21st for possible winter weather". What a complete flip. Severe season may come early, time to go through my storm/emergency kit and make sure we have everything...

[orangeblood]

Much of it has to be related to the shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

No way of knowing if it’s correlated or not… could be underwater geothermal, could be hundreds of other things . I’m sorry but man has to stop with the arrogance that it has the correct answers or can solve this equation. we can’t even get a 24 hr high impact forecast correct, no one in the weather profession really has a clue what’s causing what. It’s almost unattainable knowledge considering all of the ever changing, infinite and even unknown variables. The past can give you clues about the future to help you better prepare for mother nature but predicting it long term is a losing proposition. Need to stop wasting tax dollars on long range forecasting models and put the $ to better use!

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

[orangeblood]

Sometimes we have to separate observation and data over thoughts and theories. Not so much projecting as this is the current state. Warmer oceans provides more heat transport as well as moisture. The tropical oceans (all three big ones Pac, ATL, Indian) have all been exceptionally warm. Historically there was a seesaw effect, ENSO, IOD, AMO when one was warm would cause the others to be cold. They are all really warm in tandem. Marine driven air masses have not helped our cold cause this winter so far. Mid January was the exception.

Yes, the overall warm anomalies from the current state of our oceans is eye popping!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

No way of knowing if it’s correlated or not… could be underwater geothermal, could be hundreds of other things . I’m sorry but man has to stop with the arrogance that it has the correct answers or can solve this equation. we can’t even get a 24 hr high impact forecast correct, no one in the weather profession really has a clue what’s causing what. It’s almost unattainable knowledge considering all of the ever changing, infinite and even unknown variables. The past can give you clues about the future to help you better prepare for mother nature but predicting it long term is a losing proposition. Need to stop wasting tax dollars on long range forecasting models and put the $ to better use!

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

The Tongan event was a documented event. We saw it, experienced it, and have seen what it's done to the atmosphere. Still not entirely sure how it affects our weather and climate. One thing this fairly massive eruption didnt do was change the SST so much that it's led to (my original statement) a massive amount of sea ice lost. Is it helping with this years growth? That may be a possibility. I'm loving seeing the sea ice grow as much as it is this year. It's never had this 'good' of a year, since i've been watching it for over 20 years. The ocean is a giant unknown, but underwater volcanos is not the cause of el ninos or warming according to many publications.

I love exploring new ideas, but this one is completely baseless and is only pushed by people with an agenda.

[jasons2k]

No way of knowing if it’s correlated or not… could be underwater geothermal, could be hundreds of other things . I’m sorry but man has to stop with the arrogance that it has the correct answers or can solve this equation. we can’t even get a 24 hr high impact forecast correct, no one in the weather profession really has a clue what’s causing what. It’s almost unattainable knowledge considering all of the ever changing, infinite and even unknown variables. The past can give you clues about the future to help you better prepare for mother nature but predicting it long term is a losing proposition. Need to stop wasting tax dollars on long range forecasting models and put the $ to better use!

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

So what’s your solution? Give-up altogether, stop all funding for model research, and just say today’s models are the best it’s ever going to get because it’s a fruitless cause and a waste of money? Are you actually arguing for something specific or are you just trying to counter response to every post on the forum?

It also never ceases to amaze me when someone on the ‘net claims the professionals in the field have “no clue” what they’re doing. You might want to consider your audience on this forum. Many of them are, in fact, professional meteorologists with a “clue” and might have an issue with a comment like that.

[Edwards Limestone]

Someone please start the Spring 2024 thread.

[orangeblood]

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

The Tongan event was a documented event. We saw it, experienced it, and have seen what it's done to the atmosphere. Still not entirely sure how it affects our weather and climate. One thing this fairly massive eruption didnt do was change the SST so much that it's led to (my original statement) a massive amount of sea ice lost. Is it helping with this years growth? That may be a possibility. I'm loving seeing the sea ice grow as much as it is this year. It's never had this 'good' of a year, since i've been watching it for over 20 years. The ocean is a giant unknown, but underwater volcanos is not the cause of el ninos or warming according to many publications.

I love exploring new ideas, but this one is completely baseless and is only pushed by people with an agenda.

I'm sorry but this subject is far from conclusive, a little more research into this maybe worthwhile! There are numerous studies contradicting these publications you're vaguely citing.

“Changes in climate are not caused only by conditions in the atmosphere. The top few metres of the ocean can store as much heat as the entire atmosphere, and relatively small changes in ocean circulation can move vast amounts of heat around the planet.” (Stevens, 2006). Oceans are huge storage of heat because liquid water has one of the highest specific heat among common substances. Ocean heat comes from two sources: radiation of the Sun and the Earth core. The question is, in what proportion this heat come from sunlight and the Earth interior? Knowing how much heat energy the ocean absorbs from Earth’s core and space and how much it releases into space is essential for understanding and modelling global climate. “Without knowing the dynamical heat fluxes, it is clear that one cannot even calculate the mean temperature of the earth” (Lindzen, 1997).

https://medium.com/@tomek.glowacki/underwater-thermal-activities-an-overlooked-factor-in-climate-change-85ed0cf3d797

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00348-y
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500093

[DukeMu]

Sometimes we have to separate observation and data over thoughts and theories. Not so much projecting as this is the current state. Warmer oceans provides more heat transport as well as moisture. The tropical oceans (all three big ones Pac, ATL, Indian) have all been exceptionally warm. Historically there was a seesaw effect, ENSO, IOD, AMO when one was warm would cause the others to be cold. They are all really warm in tandem. Marine driven air masses have not helped our cold cause this winter so far. Mid January was the exception.

Yes, the overall warm anomalies from the current state of our oceans is eye popping!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/oisst-compare/2024.png?474423

The flip to El Nino triggered a massive heat dump. Heat stored as a buffer as CO2 levels have increased.

Also, Arctic ice was shrinking from 1979-1995 during the cool AMO.

Antarctic sea ice is also low on its oscillation, due to the warming Southern Ocean.