Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WcMZpDT/ex3ECedn.png [/url]

RGEM time

Looks a lot like 18z GFS.

I would say accumulations definitely look more manageable with RGEM compared to GFS (sleet was just massive on that 18z run), but only 84 hours out so perhaps this isn't telling the whole story regarding that comparison. Right now, at least precip doesn't look to be as widespread and intense in that run but doesn't take much of course to cause significant issues.

[txtwister78]

Looks like another big run incoming on GFS

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WcMZpDT/ex3ECedn.png [/url]

RGEM time

Looks a lot like 18z GFS.

I would say accumulations definitely look more manageable with RGEM compared to GFS (sleet was just massive on that 18z run), but only 84 hours out so perhaps this isn't telling the whole story regarding that comparison. Right now, at least precip doesn't look to be as widespread and intense in that run but doesn't take much of course to cause significant issues.

Yeah but holding the ULL back like that is a dream run. It would cause a bloom in w/TX qpf. Outlier right now but that would be an even bigger event extrapolated.

[txtwister78]

Looks a lot like 18z GFS.

I would say accumulations definitely look more manageable with RGEM compared to GFS (sleet was just massive on that 18z run), but only 84 hours out so perhaps this isn't telling the whole story regarding that comparison. Right now, at least precip doesn't look to be as widespread and intense in that run but doesn't take much of course to cause significant issues.

Yeah but holding the ULL back like that is a dream run. It would cause a bloom in w/TX qpf. Outlier right now but that would be an even bigger event extrapolated.

Agreed just saw the 500mb...GFS also a little slower and so bringing in more winter precip

[Ntxw]

GFS trends, after going faster it too like the recent ICON slower and south. Hear Cabo is nice this time of year.

[Brent]

GFS has a very sharp gradient in the Tulsa OKC metro. Cutting it way too close for me

[Cerlin]

RGEM wants HEAVY snow over OKC and where I’m at in Norman. Looks insane.

[orangeblood]

GFS trends, after going faster it too like the recent ICON slower and south. Hear Cabo is nice this time of year.

https://i.imgur.com/9RWJgGC.gif

GFS is locked in, most consistent by a long shot. Now heavy snow beginning to show up just west of metroplex. Getting really aggressive with the 2nd band moving through around sunrise Thursday

[txtwister78]

One thing I'll say is depite the Euro, you can't ignore the GFS and ICON's consistency throughout the past few days. Just been locked in. CMC has also been solid, so something has to give with Euro.

[TheProfessor]

GFS is probably too far north. Went from being on the northern edge of the appreciable snow to the southern edge of the heavy snow today. I think if anything I'll be on the northern edge of heavy snow.

[Ntxw]

One thing I'll say is depite the Euro, you can't ignore the GFS and ICON's consistency throughout the past few days. Just been locked in. CMC has also been solid, so something has to give with Euro.

That's the thing though, why put so much weight over the euro when it's the one going back and forth. That doesn't show confidence, just by name it gets the credit. It is a consistent top scorer for global 500mb skill but for whatever reason, the Rockies and southwest (including MX) gives it issues. Maybe it's anecdotal, systems in the past that crosses this region the Euro is often the furthest north of the bunch initially. It holds too much back, lack of qpf, etc etc. The other models are catching up to it and regionally can be more useful.

[Texas Snow]

GEFS snow totals still look great. Not quite as much overall as 18z but small differences and more than 12z. Dallas at 5 and Brent in wonderland.

I did notice it lays down an inch at Dallas right when the freeze line hits so wondering if sleet somehow makes it in to the totals.

[txtwister78]

One thing I'll say is depite the Euro, you can't ignore the GFS and ICON's consistency throughout the past few days. Just been locked in. CMC has also been solid, so something has to give with Euro.

That's the thing though, why put so much weight over the euro when it's the one going back and forth. That doesn't show confidence, just by name it gets the credit. It is a consistent top scorer for global 500mb skill but for whatever reason, the Rockies and southwest (including MX) gives it issues. Maybe it's anecdotal, systems in the past that crosses this region the Euro is often the furthest north of the bunch initially. It holds too much back, lack of qpf, etc etc. The other models are catching up to it and regionally can be more useful.

Yeah I don't think it's 75% accurate let alone 100% as I mentioned earlier today, and I was definitely questioning it last year on this forum. I think it's the Rockies (mountain range) where it bottles up/creates a dam as the arctic air moves down the plains. That's been an issue with it on several occasions (not just last year). With that said, I still think it's best to throw out both extremes and go in the middle. Now granted even that may be a little underdone if the ICON, CMC and GFS continue to show strong signals as they have so I agree on that

I think the reason it gets the credit or respect it does, is it still scores well compared to the rest in overall skill (as you point out). It beat the heck out of the GFS up in the NE with the blizzard and it wasn't close. I mentioned earlier to Porta that obviously there is some variability to that though when you factor in what you and I are outlining in our region (other factors that give it issues regionally).

[Haris]

Major S shift on CMC ! Euro about to have a catastrophic failure

[Ntxw]

Also not noted on the ICON/GFS/CMC for many areas from the initial qpf to the end is 18-24 hour event which for us is quite a long duration. Temp profiles notwithstanding it's a mess. Get cold faster and it's not good.

[Golf7270]

Anyone have the 0zgefs snow mean they can post?

[TheProfessor]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

[cheezyWXguy]

Also not noted on the ICON/GFS/CMC for many areas from the initial qpf to the end is 18-24 hour event which for us is quite a long duration. Temp profiles notwithstanding it's a mess. Get cold faster and it's not good.

I will say, I think the cmc is way too slow with dropping the freezing line south, it hardly makes it through dfw by 6am. That said, we are seeing the upward qpf trends that result from the depiction of a more amplified, southward digging system. If we were to apply the icon’s timing of freezing temperatures to the cmc’s qpf it would be a hell of a storm

[Ntxw]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

https://i.imgur.com/lX9g1N6.png

Heat Miser won’t like that too much. I’ll happily take those 4 inches of snow here in SA