Texas Winter 2023-2024

[DukeMu]

The Nature article doesn't say that the geothermal contribution is increasing, it says that it establishes boundary conditions or constraints upon which presumably scientists could establish causal links: solar, CO2, methane, current oscillations, volcanos, even geothermal, etc. The article makes it clear that the boundary conditions in West vs. East Antarctica are different.

[orangeblood]

It's quite clear that the arctic sea ice has shrunk massively. Data shows this. Losing 30% of the sea ice deep in the heart of winter alone will make a difference, and is. I'm not sure how you can argue that having so much more ice in the arctic doesn't affect our temps. I didn't say why the arctic ice is low, just stating that it is. Variability? Sure. Antarctica had it's highest sea ice total only ten years ago.

One thing I'm confident is that Joe Bastardi's latest climate curveball, geothermal venting from the sea, is quite laughable. He's been on this for about a year now and has zero evidence at all. I wont even go into how silly that assumption is, but there have been studies on the effect geo-thermal has on the atmosphere and it's a miniscule .03%.

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

So what’s your solution? Give-up altogether, stop all funding for model research, and just say today’s models are the best it’s ever going to get because it’s a fruitless cause and a waste of money? Are you actually arguing for something specific or are you just trying to counter response to every post on the forum?

It also never ceases to amaze me when someone on the ‘net claims the professionals in the field have “no clue” what they’re doing. You might want to consider your audience on this forum. Many of them are, in fact, professional meteorologists with a “clue” and might have an issue with a comment like that.

Look, I realize this opinion maybe an unpopular one but I truly believe it's one of many topics/debates that needs to be had. This is a weather discussion board so what better place to have this type of discussion ?

What I'm arguing is that we need to reallocate where funds are going at this point, with there being far greater priorities in our society! We've reached a point, in the modeling world, where the accuracy appears to have plateaued. Beyond a certain point in time, model accuracy drastically falls off a cliff. In order to try to improve upon those inaccuracies, it's likely going to take exponential more dollars just to attempt the endeavor particularly with all of the known and unknown variables involved. And even then, there's no guarantee a) it will be successful and b) it will be a net gain for society

[dhweather]

The only positive for the cold weather this weekend - I need to do some stuff in the attic.

[orangeblood]

The Nature article doesn't say that the geothermal contribution is increasing, it says that it establishes boundary conditions or constraints upon which presumably scientists could establish causal links: solar, CO2, methane, current oscillations, volcanos, even geothermal, etc. The article makes it clear that the boundary conditions in West vs. East Antarctica are different.

I'm not arguing whether geothermal is increasing or isn't in that particular region, just that it absolutely is a part of the climate equation. The debate is still by what magnitude ?

[Fifty Rock]

Cow farts are killing us all, but man, this steak sure is good....

Meanwhile, It's a very pleasant day across the entire State of Texas. Don't forget those Valentines Day gifts or you'll end up in the wife or girlfriends “dendritic growth zone.”

[orangeblood]

Cow farts are killing us all, but man, this steak sure is good....

Meanwhile, It's a very pleasant day across the entire State of Texas. Don't for get those Valentines Day gifts or you'll end up in the wife or girlfriends “dendritic growth zone.”

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Zero evidence ?? The Tongan underwater volcano eruption from 2022 as Exhibit A, that one happened to have immediate/well documented impacts on the atmosphere. The amount of water vapor (greenhouse gas) that spewed into the atmosphere is pretty unfathomable. Add to it the documented rapid reduction in the Ozone Layer immediately following the event and you're claiming the assumption is laughable or that it had miniscule impacts ?? That seems really farfetched to discount. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

This type of eruption isn't the first or last that will occur and until we can predict with precision accuracy when the next one will occur and at what magnitude, it remains one of many ways that make it impossible to model our future!!!

There are hundreds of other underwater geothermal volcanos constantly changing the oceans chemistry that have immediate and long term impacts throughout the entire climate system as well. And yet, these data points are largely ignored or even modeled in the weather modeling world. Really perplexing that you're discounting that, seems pretty obvious that is one of many massive flaws in our weather models.

So what’s your solution? Give-up altogether, stop all funding for model research, and just say today’s models are the best it’s ever going to get because it’s a fruitless cause and a waste of money? Are you actually arguing for something specific or are you just trying to counter response to every post on the forum?

It also never ceases to amaze me when someone on the ‘net claims the professionals in the field have “no clue” what they’re doing. You might want to consider your audience on this forum. Many of them are, in fact, professional meteorologists with a “clue” and might have an issue with a comment like that.

Look, I realize this opinion maybe an unpopular one but I truly believe it's one of many topics/debates that needs to be had. This is a weather discussion board so what better place to have this type of discussion ?

What I'm arguing is that we need to reallocate where funds are going at this point, with there being far greater priorities in our society! We've reached a point, in the modeling world, where the accuracy appears to have plateaued. Beyond a certain point in time, model accuracy drastically falls off a cliff. In order to try to improve upon those inaccuracies, it's likely going to take exponential more dollars just to attempt the endeavor particularly with all of the known and unknown variables involved. And even then, there's no guarantee a) it will be successful and b) it will be a net gain for society

Modeling isnt perfect, but it's still extremely helpful. Where has it got it truly wrong? Sure, it's missed a La nina when it though nino was coming, and the improvements may have slowed down lately. Almost like were pushing on a string a bit. Hopefully AI can help improve things.
Im very optimistic about the energy savings and time running these models on GPU's is saving. The amount of power consumed for these models is astronomical.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sometimes we have to separate observation and data over thoughts and theories. Not so much projecting as this is the current state. Warmer oceans provides more heat transport as well as moisture. The tropical oceans (all three big ones Pac, ATL, Indian) have all been exceptionally warm. Historically there was a seesaw effect, ENSO, IOD, AMO when one was warm would cause the others to be cold. They are all really warm in tandem. Marine driven air masses have not helped our cold cause this winter so far. Mid January was the exception.

Yes, the overall warm anomalies from the current state of our oceans is eye popping!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/oisst-compare/2024.png?474423

The flip to El Nino triggered a massive heat dump. Heat stored as a buffer as CO2 levels have increased.

Also, Arctic ice was shrinking from 1979-1995 during the cool AMO.

Antarctic sea ice is also low on its oscillation, due to the warming Southern Ocean.

https://i.postimg.cc/02hVqNKm/4ac08ac36668044e63926b8cfc0680e3.png

The variability in ice around Antarctica is huge. I think it matters vastly on the state of the atmosphere and upwelling around the island. So many different dynamics involved, but yes, it appears to be trending downward over the last decade.

[Texas Snowman]

Three years ago…

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1757889537005453382

[Texas Snow]

Three years ago…

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1757889537005453382

That may end up being my favorite map of all time

[Stratton23]

Man I would love to see pink like that across the whole state again, maybe one day lol, this februrary is about as depressing as weather can get

[Brent]

Three years ago…

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1757889537005453382

I think we used up all our winter that year

Wait til February they said. This is a joke

[Itryatgolf]

Three years ago…

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1757889537005453382

I think we used up all our winter that year

Wait til February they said. This is a joke

Imo, the only way winter wil return briefly is if either the SSW materialize and it effects us, or mjo gets into phases 1-3. I'm still hoping for one more winter event here lol

[Brent]

Three years ago…

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1757889537005453382

I think we used up all our winter that year

Wait til February they said. This is a joke

Imo, the only way winter wil return briefly is if either the SSW materialize and it effects us, or mjo gets into phases 1-3. I'm still hoping for one more winter event here lol

I hope so too because I'm struggling with the fact that for 2 years now Tulsa can't get more than 2 inches of snow in a winter when we average 9. I just don't know anymore and all I heard all winter was eventually we would get ours and then we failed yeah not good

[txtwister78]

Well for those wanting one last shot of cold before Spring, at least it's going to feel like winter again this Saturday into Sunday morning across most of the state. One more light freeze down into South Central Texas perhaps with wind chill values ranging in the upper teens across the Panhandle to the mid/upper 20's per the NAM across Central and South-Central regions. That projection at least is going to hit from a week ago.

[Stratton23]

I think we will have a few more shots at winter in early march, noaa seems to agree with that as well, march actually looks below average in terms of temp’s, not arctic cold, but still looks on the cooler/ chilly side

[txtwister78]

I think we will have a few more shots at winter in early march, noaa seems to agree with that as well, march actually looks below average in terms of temp’s, not arctic cold, but still looks on the cooler/ chilly side

Relative to averages into March, that's not saying much for most areas of the state by then. I think this weekend is probably going to be it as it relates to widespread "winter" cold unless you live up in the Panhandle perhaps. I could see something up in that region where winter can hang on a little longer climatologically before it's all said and done.

CPC's 3-4 week outlook is predicting slight odds of below average temps with slightly higher odds of above average precip (would be good news for this region) and so that explains the temps.

[DukeMu]

The Nature article doesn't say that the geothermal contribution is increasing, it says that it establishes boundary conditions or constraints upon which presumably scientists could establish causal links: solar, CO2, methane, current oscillations, volcanos, even geothermal, etc. The article makes it clear that the boundary conditions in West vs. East Antarctica are different.

I'm not arguing whether geothermal is increasing or isn't in that particular region, just that it absolutely is a part of the climate equation. The debate is still by what magnitude ?

There are a slew of factors, including geothermal. We can parse them out better than decades ago as boundary conditions are becoming better known.

The continuous trend for CO2 is up. The analogies I use are like a thumb on the scale affecting outcomes and a probability model. While it's difficult to link specific weather events to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere, like adding millions of entries into a Lotto. It increases the probability of events While CO2 is only the 3rd most potent major greenhouse molecule (water vapor and methane are 1 and 2), CO2 is homogenously distributed in the troposphere (latitude, longitude, and altitude), it has a long half-life of (decades). Antarctica and Mauna Loa get the same values. Absorption of infrared radiation is an essential thermodynamic property. So the effects of upward trends are predictable in that the hum presses harder on the scale.

I measured CO2 in the atmosphere quite a bit back in the 80s for calibration of O2 and CO2 analyzers and it was 330 ppm (up from 280 ppm at the turn of the 20th Century. Today we're at 430 ppm and rising. Some of the temperature rise from 1980 - today was ironically reduction in particulate pollution (smog), some is UHI. A good bit of it is the rise in CO2 due to hydrocarbon burning and loss of tropical forestation.

While expected rise in night temperatures and largest changes at the poles are consistent with a modest greenhouse effects, predicting the future and the effect on specific areas and biosystems is difficult. The effects of CO2 are heterogenous and intertwined with complex ocean current oscillations. Models over-estimate the contribution of an expected rise in water vapor...by gaseous H2O is not homogenously distributed and has a very short half-life (days). However, the impact on the loss of albedo has been greater than affects.

I think we're looking at a 20-40 year transition to a carbon neutral environment. Carbon capture, potential development of fusion (now that we have superconductor magnets), hydrogen, ammonia, biofuels, planting more trees, greening the cities. I'm on the technology and innovation solution side.

Meanwhile, the probability of the # of Atlantic basin hurricanes will either not change or possibly decrease. However, the probability of CAT 4 and 5 bombs will continue to trend upwards. Most winter days will probably be warmer, with an occasional disrupted polar vortex.

My main concerns over the next 20-40 years are (slowly) rising sea level and potential for mega droughts scattered around the globe, taxing food supplies. These are things the Pentagon worries and plans potential scenarios where wars are ignited by limited food and resources in an increasingly unstable political climate.

The Earth will survive, regardless. Most of the Earth's existence was been without polar ice caps. That's a relatively "new" phenomenon, and the last 10M years have featured relatively unstable polar ice coverage.

[DukeMu]

Back to the weather. We're milder with increasing DPs before a now lower chance of rain. The mosquito hawks and grackles are making their return, signifying that winter is fading. We'll have a windy day on Saturday in CLL, then one of the last frosty nights. We may have 1 or 2 more mild freezes, but climo will be taking a hand late next week.

It's time for Brazos Valley residents to prepare for severe season which has trended earlier and nastier from Waco to Birmingham and TN. The kicker for the core South is that many of the upcoming severe systems will be having their impacts at night. Scary stuff. We're going to have El Niño with their thumb on the scale, so there could be some potent severe outbreaks - especially in the South.

[Stratton23]

Im curious to see if another SSWE occurs, pretty good agreement from guidance that another one may be underway after presidents day, now if it effects europe or the US remains to be seen, but a good write up by Judas Cohen who is a very reliable source and has done extensive research on SSWE’s and the polar vortex, if any of y’all are interested , he posted a link to his public article on X ( twitter)