Texas Winter 2010-2011

[vbhoutex]

Anyone else see the 12z UKMET with low forming in the Gulf later this week with SW flow?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif

That could sure make things interesting!

[Brandon8181]

Been this way since I was ten, vbhoutx.

I guess we started about the same age then. My guess is I have been at it a lot longer than you have and I still am fascinated by it and learn more almost every day.
What I am seeing in the models right now is some of the coldest I have seen in a long time!! So much for our La Nina winter! With the way the winters have been the last three years here in SE TX I am really thinking we are entering a cooling phase with Winters similar to what we saw during the 70's.

Can someone tell me more about the winters in the 70's? I was born in 1983

[wxman57]

I made a loop of the 00Z NAM projected snow accumulations. Just two images - the 48hr and the 84hr projection. You can see the snow swath appear from eastern OK through the Midwest:

[kmc8264]

Northeast Ok already under a winter storm watch for Monday night and Tuesday. Does that mean Southwest Ok will be left dry again?

[gpsnowman]

Been this way since I was ten, vbhoutx.

I guess we started about the same age then. My guess is I have been at it a lot longer than you have and I still am fascinated by it and learn more almost every day.
What I am seeing in the models right now is some of the coldest I have seen in a long time!! So much for our La Nina winter! With the way the winters have been the last three years here in SE TX I am really thinking we are entering a cooling phase with Winters similar to what we saw during the 70's.

Good guess, you have been at it a lot longer than I have. I have to say it was the Great Harold Taft who got me into loving weather. I will say this though, if the cooling phase is anything like your 70's and my 80's we are in for some good times.

[Ptarmigan]

Anyone else see the 12z UKMET with low forming in the Gulf later this week with SW flow?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif

Interesting pattern. I am assume out of this, we could see some frozen rain and possibly snow. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm............................

[vbhoutex]

Been this way since I was ten, vbhoutx.

I guess we started about the same age then. My guess is I have been at it a lot longer than you have and I still am fascinated by it and learn more almost every day.
What I am seeing in the models right now is some of the coldest I have seen in a long time!! So much for our La Nina winter! With the way the winters have been the last three years here in SE TX I am really thinking we are entering a cooling phase with Winters similar to what we saw during the 70's.

Can someone tell me more about the winters in the 70's? I was born in 1983

The short story is that they were colder and we saw more wintry precip., at least in SE TX than we did during the 80's and 90's. Temperature exceptions to that would have been cold extremes In 1983 and 1989. In 1973 we had three snow events in SE TX(Houston) 1 in January and 2 in February.

[gboudx]

DFW with a SWS - Winter Storm Outlook

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141-301130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-
ELLIS-COMANCHE-
1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 1ST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTH TEXAS WITH QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A WINTER MIX TO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUT
WHEN THE SUB- FREEZING AIR WILL ARRIVE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO ROCKWALL TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND OR SNOW ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THIS SAME AREA BUT THE
AMOUNT OF ICE IS STILL BEING DETERMINED. HOWEVER...SOME MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST. THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING ASSESSED WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN AND WITH SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ARE STILL BEING DETERMINED AND WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[DentonGal]

Two DFW mets (channel 8 and 11) both show the front hitting DFW between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. Tuesday morning with freezing rain starting at that time. A little earlier than I thought it would happen. Channel 4 wouldn't commit to anything but rain with a possibility of sleet.

[Turtle]

DFW NWS:

[Metalicwx220]

Anyone else see the 12z UKMET with low forming in the Gulf later this week with SW flow?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif

That could sure make things interesting!

What does that have to do with anything?

[Brandon8181]

Anyone else see the 12z UKMET with low forming in the Gulf later this week with SW flow?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif

That could sure make things interesting!

What does that have to do with anything?

The low the UK met is suggesting later this week would mean if there is cold air already in place, then a low forming would create an inflow of moisture resulting in widespread snowfall.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Metalicwx220]

OOHH! Cool needs to bomb in the gulf of mexico LOL!

[Mr. Weather]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif[/quote]That could sure make things interesting![/quote]
What does that have to do with anything?[/quote]

The low the UK met is suggesting later this week would mean if there is cold air already in place, then a low forming would create an inflow of moisture resulting in widespread snowfall.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[/quote]


around what day next week would this event take place ?

[Metalicwx220]

SAT-sun timeframe

[downsouthman1]

SAT-sun timeframe

Too early to tell. As of now, take it as a model fluke.

[paintplaye]

People might want to look at the CMC

[Brandon8181]

Anyone just not have anything to say?

[iorange55]

Nobody is going to say anything about the CMC?

Interesting what it's showing for later this coming week.

[Ntxw]

Canadian is now the most bullish with next Thurs/Friday system with snow.