Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Yukon Cornelius]

Why have the overnight forecasts decreased precip amounts with the overnight runs still looking really good?

[wxman57]

I see that the overnight models (GFS/EC) are keeping the snow west of D-FW mostly. Lots of freezing rain and sleet. I don't buy the UKMET solution. I wonder what algorithm it uses to calculate what is snow? Could be different from other models. That snow over Houston looks VERY suspicious with temps barely below freezing. Maybe it doesn't see a warm nose in its calculations? We won't know anything more today. Wait until tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning.

[Portastorm]

Getting some good, old-fashioned lightning and thunder this morning here in south Austin. Steady rain too. Nice!

[utweather]

I see that the overnight models (GFS/EC) are keeping the snow west of D-FW mostly. Lots of freezing rain and sleet. I don't buy the UKMET solution. I wonder what algorithm it uses to calculate what is snow? Could be different from other models. That snow over Houston looks VERY suspicious with temps barely below freezing. Maybe it doesn't see a warm nose in its calculations? We won't know anything more today. Wait until tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning.

I may be in Cancun by then.
Maybe if the ice takes out the power in north Texas there will be enough for the rest of the state to keep us warm.

[HockeyTx82]

Why have the overnight forecasts decreased precip amounts with the overnight runs still looking really good?

My Fox 4 WAPP went from 5-8 inches to a glaze of ice and 1" of snow.......

What's going on?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Why have the overnight forecasts decreased precip amounts with the overnight runs still looking really good?

My Fox 4 WAPP went from 5-8 inches to a glaze of ice and 1" of snow.......

What's going on?

That’s basically what’s going on up here as well. Idk. Strange.

[wxman57]

Why have the overnight forecasts decreased precip amounts with the overnight runs still looking really good?

My Fox 4 WAPP went from 5-8 inches to a glaze of ice and 1" of snow.......

What's going on?

They're following the latest model guidance. Wait until tomorrow afternoon at the very earliest for any clarity. More likely Wednesday morning before we're really confident. Looks like the Hill Country is getting some decent rain today.

[Ralph's Weather]

Why have the overnight forecasts decreased precip amounts with the overnight runs still looking really good?

My Fox 4 WAPP went from 5-8 inches to a glaze of ice and 1" of snow.......

What's going on?

That’s basically what’s going on up here as well. Idk. Strange.

Those are basically the two scenarios for North Texas. It's gonna be cold and there will be plenty of precip. All depends on the warm nose.

[orangeblood]

ICON went cold with freeze line into DFW at 9pm and Tyler by midnight. GFS is around midnight for DFW and 6am for Tyler. Canadian is midnight for DFW and noon for Tyler. NAM is noon for DFW. Oz Euro was 6am for DFW and 3pm for Tyler, awaiting 06Z to load on TT.

Euro now 3am for DFW, around 8-9am Tyler. The timing with the frz line obviously has massive implications with the 1st wave of precip, 2nd wave ejecting out Thursday sunrise should be mostly all frozen in North Texas down into HC. If 1st wave is partly frozen, it could makes this go from a moderate impact event to quite severe looking at QPF amounts with the 1st wave

[Yukon Cornelius]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are possible across Oklahoma and
western north Texas. In addition, ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch or greater are possible mainly in
southeastern Oklahoma. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia
if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

[orangeblood]

1st Precip Wave b/w 6pm and Midnight Wednesday



2nd Precip Wave b/w 6am and Noon Thursday. This is the wave that should be mostly frozen

[dhweather]

I see that the overnight models (GFS/EC) are keeping the snow west of D-FW mostly. Lots of freezing rain and sleet. I don't buy the UKMET solution. I wonder what algorithm it uses to calculate what is snow? Could be different from other models. That snow over Houston looks VERY suspicious with temps barely below freezing. Maybe it doesn't see a warm nose in its calculations? We won't know anything more today. Wait until tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning.

Can you sense my excitement?

[losf1981]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are possible across Oklahoma and
western north Texas. In addition, ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch or greater are possible mainly in
southeastern Oklahoma. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia
if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

keeping a close eye on this as well Yukon. A lot of the information on here (and rightly so) deals with larger metropolitan areas, but after last February's events I am needing to know what we can expect west and north of DFW so we can prepare accordingly

[rwfromkansas]

Look at that dry gap over Tarrant with the second wave of all frozen. Lol. Don't see that as realistic though.

With the Euro speeding up the cold vs. 0z, I think that's a good sign.

Just because they are saying freezing rain/sleet doesn't mean that's going to happen. I don't think we really will know that for a few days...

I would bet maybe .25 of ice, 1 inch of sleet, 2 inches of snow, but....will see. That's assuming a little faster changeover here in north Fort Worth. May be overdone on snow if mostly ice.

[funster]

Hmmm.... very worst conditions (most freezing rain) may be just to the northeast of dfw area but who knows until it rolls on in. I guess watches/warnings will go up this evening. Travel starts getting hazardous Wed night. Could write up from NWS this morning particularly about wind and freezing rain

NOTE: We usually want to have temperatures at or below 28 F to
receive significant ice accumulations. That is not necessarily
true with this event due to brisk north winds around 20-25 mph.
Strong winds will help expel heat from surface objects, but will
be very efficiently expel heat from the individual water droplets
as they fall & make contact with the surface. Due to this, we can
start to receive significant ice accumulation with temperatures
around 30-31 F instead of the typical 28 F threshold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are possible across Oklahoma and
western north Texas. In addition, ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch or greater are possible mainly in
southeastern Oklahoma. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia
if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

keeping a close eye on this as well Yukon. A lot of the information on here (and rightly so) deals with larger metropolitan areas, but after last February's events I am needing to know what we can expect west and north of DFW so we can prepare accordingly

KAUZ did a good Fb live video on it this morning. Still a lot of uncertainty though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at that dry gap over Tarrant with the second wave of all frozen. Lol. Don't see that as realistic though.

With the Euro speeding up the cold vs. 0z, I think that's a good sign.

Just because they are saying freezing rain/sleet doesn't mean that's going to happen. I don't think we really will know that for a few days...

I would bet maybe .25 of ice, 1 inch of sleet, 2 inches of snow, but....will see. That's assuming a little faster changeover here in north Fort Worth. May be overdone on snow if mostly ice.

Gun to my head, I’m thinking the same accumulations but the sleet and snow amounts swapped for immediate dfw. Hope that snow transition does happen earlier though, as that would likely inflate total accumulations. Obviously this is all speculation though

[rwfromkansas]

Look at that dry gap over Tarrant with the second wave of all frozen. Lol. Don't see that as realistic though.

With the Euro speeding up the cold vs. 0z, I think that's a good sign.

Just because they are saying freezing rain/sleet doesn't mean that's going to happen. I don't think we really will know that for a few days...

I would bet maybe .25 of ice, 1 inch of sleet, 2 inches of snow, but....will see. That's assuming a little faster changeover here in north Fort Worth. May be overdone on snow if mostly ice.

Gun to my head, I’m thinking the same accumulations but the sleet and snow amounts swapped for immediate dfw. Hope that snow transition does happen earlier though, as that would likely inflate total accumulations. Obviously this is all speculation though

I kind of hate this period where you think you have an idea what's going to happen, but you have to wait longer for warnings and more confidence from the NWS, plus HRRR and other models to really get close in time. The NAM is obviously way off still in terms of timing (Edit...but now better apparently right after I posted). But, will we get 7-8 p.m. switching that would be ideal? Kind of doubt that now. Probably more midnight unfortunately. But, it's all just speculation like you said until we get closer.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM decided to pull its head out of its…uhh…you know, and took a big step in the right direction in terms of precip depiction and temps. Still going to be playing catch up though

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM now on board, now a consensus across all Models of a Major Winter Storm...NAM getting colder but still catching up, about 5-7 Deg F too warm compared to GFS and 3-4 hrs slow with transition. As has been mentioned several times, exact details won't be worked out until Tuesday at earliest but prep for significant impacts from San Antonio to College Station to Texarkana and locals Northwest of that line