Texas Winter 2010-2011

[orangeblood]

One trend that stands out tonight: much faster with the cold front and storm system. For Dfw, most of the precip should end before sunrise on Tuesday. How much of that is frozen? Probably going to be a window of 2-3 hours for frozen precip. Looks to be under 1/4 of an inch though


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[Metalicwx220]

Time to laugh......LOL!! Sooo now its gonna snow in southeast texas.

[tugreenie]

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NOt to get off topic I have never seen this many people on at 1 in the morning. 10 mins ago there was 76 guest.

Next time there is going to be a late night party, please notify us so we can attend too!

I can't stand the waiting! We have a pretty good idea of where it is going, we just have to wait until it arrives to see exactly how far south or east it will go and how strong it will be when it gets here.

Winter storms or tropical troubles, it is ALWAYS exciting to track weather!!

[DentonGal]

And....we're off and running this morning! Out of Fort Worth


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011



...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE UNTIL
FRIDAY.

REGARDING THE TIMING FOR WINTER WEATHER TUESDAY...LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND TO MINERAL WELLS TO BOWIE COULD
SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE WINTRY
MIX TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PARIS...HILLSBORO...
GOLDTHWAITE LINE...INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...BY
LATE MORNING. BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE TRANSITION LINE WILL LIKELY
REACH AN ATHENS...TO WACO...TO LAMPASAS LINE. A TRANSITION OVER TO
MOSTLY SNOW OR SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING...TYPES OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION...AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
CURRENT FORECAST DATA INDICATES AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT ICE...SLEET OR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT ARE
STILL BEING DETERMINED AND WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED DURING THE NEXT FEW
OF DAYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PART OF
NORTH TEXAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Metalicwx220]

The weather channel uses the word colossal to describe this storm and they say this is one we haven't seen yet this winter.

[orangeblood]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

[srainhoutx]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

Perhaps they think the models are too progressive with the Pacifc storm.

[wall_cloud]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

maybe they are forecasting something they believe the models aren't handling well. As much as you guys pour over each run you should know that they aren't very good many times with very dynamic systems. If the low deepens further over the plains (quite possible given the strong baroclinicity), it will likely slow.

[txagwxman]

Interesting, the ECMWF light snow Houston on Friday...

[txagwxman]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

GFS has precip lingering through 18z Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting, the ECMWF light snow Houston on Friday...

As well as the UKMET and to some extent the GEM. In fact, the Euro/UKMET suggests flurries in Monterrey, MX as well.

[cperez1594]

We are lift off in Brownsville finally. I think they needed models to be in agreement!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

TXZ248>257-301800-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
400 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...MASSIVE COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY COLD AND DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW
TO MID 40S DUE TO THE MASSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S WITHIN ZAPATA...JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITHIN STARR...HIDALGO...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTY. THE ENTIRE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER A FREEZE WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING
THOSE TIMES.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ARE ADVISED TO DEVELOP PLANS
TO PROTECT PEOPLE...PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES FROM THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.

$$

TOMASELLI

[cperez1594]

Lows I think they may need to undercut a little more

Brownsvile AFD this morning at 4am

.LONG TERM...6 PM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER TX MOVES OUT TO THE EAST IT WILL BE FOLLOWING
PRETTY QUICKLY BY ANOTHER PAIR OF STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGHS
DIGGING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TWO TROUGHS WILL KICK OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUES WHILE THE NORTHERN MOST WILL DIVE
FURTHER SOUTH DROPPING OVER TX ON WED AND THURS. THIS MAJOR TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF TX LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING
MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BRIEFLY ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD
WILL BE THE EXPECTED RETURN OF STRONG CAA INTO THE REGION. THE
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES INDICATE PLUMMETING VALUES STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW THICKNESS VALUES PERSISTING ON THROUGH FRI.
THE CAA WILL FINALLY BREAK NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM UP
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY NEXT SUN. RUN TO RUN COMPARISONS WITH THE
GFS MEX TEMPS SHOWS A SOLID SWING TOWARDS BELOW FREEZING TEMPS FOR
THURS AND FRI MORNINGS. THE MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC WITH THE GEM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL COMING IN WITH SERIOUS
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE OVERALL STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST NORTHWARD WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE THE
GEM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT VERSUS THE GEM WITH THE
OVERALL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GEM BEING THE OUTLIER AT
THIS TIME. SO WILL GO WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH THESE
MODELS KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED EAST OF THE TX
COASTLINE OVER THE GULF OF MEX. SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A
PROBLEM WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING PCPN. HOWEVER IF THE GFS AND
ECMWF TREND CLOSER TO THE GEM SOLUTION THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF POPS IN THE LONGER RANGE. IF THIS
OVERRUNNING PCPN SOLUTION DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS THIS COULD RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PCPN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WORDING.

[Brandon8181]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

GFS has precip lingering through 18z Tuesday.

Thats exactly what I was going to say..

And it has been....??

Orangeblood, I feel that you far more experienced than me, but did you misss something

[Brandon8181]

Look at this for 126 hours

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

[Metalicwx220]

Don't forget about the snow in brownsville lol.

[DentonGal]

Okay pro's and amatuers....the big question is....for North Texas, is this a one loafer or two? I need to do grocery shopping today.

[Brandon8181]

Okay pro's and amatuers....the big question is....for North Texas, is this a one loafer or two? I need to do grocery shopping today.

That would depend on how big your family is, and how much you eat I would say 2 to be safe

yum, food.

[orangeblood]

What's odd about the Fort Worth discussion is that they mention precip lingering into the afternoon. I can't find one model depicting this scenario and some of them even shut it down entirely by 6 am. Strange!!!

maybe they are forecasting something they believe the models aren't handling well. As much as you guys pour over each run you should know that they aren't very good many times with very dynamic systems. If the low deepens further over the plains (quite possible given the strong baroclinicity), it will likely slow.

Thanks wall_cloud. And right on cue the 12z NAM shows the system deeper and slower than earlier runs. Even shows a snow band lingering on the backside of the low.

[txagwxman]

Okay pro's and amatuers....the big question is....for North Texas, is this a one loafer or two? I need to do grocery shopping today.

Yes...I would expect ice/sleet/light snow on Tuesday in Denton.

Temps should drop into the 20s by 9AM there...judging that the models are always too slow with the arctic front.