Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Im expecting below average precipitation in march, even the GEPS guidance shows very little in march

[Ptarmigan]

12Z GFS has most of the metroplex getting about .25" of precip in the next two weeks. That's not good.

The abrupt flip to a drier pattern is more disappointing than the abrupt end to winter. However, I guess it was chilly this weekend lol

Hopefully, this is temporary, and we will see a wet Spring in Texas.

Unfortunately the GFS and Euro Weeklies have been consistently indicating we will have a drier than normal March for a while now...

I do not put a lot of stock into long term forecasts. Things can change.

[Brent]

The abrupt flip to a drier pattern is more disappointing than the abrupt end to winter. However, I guess it was chilly this weekend lol

Hopefully, this is temporary, and we will see a wet Spring in Texas.

Unfortunately the GFS and Euro Weeklies have been consistently indicating we will have a drier than normal March for a while now...

I do not put a lot of stock into long term forecasts. Things can change.

Aren't these the same long term forecasts that said winter would come back the end of February too

I don't think anyone has a clue after the way this winter has been tbh

[Stratton23]

And thats one reason im not throwing in the towel on winter just yet as its been a very odd one, whose to say winter can’t come roaring back in march?im seeing indications of a much different 500 mb height pattern configuration setting up by the end of the month and into march, lots of governing factors here, also the SSWE should be underway this week, so that’s something to watch as well

[Brent]

And thats one reason im not throwing in the towel on winter just yet as its been a very odd one, whose to say winter can’t come roaring back in march?im seeing indications of a much different 500 mb height pattern configuration setting up by the end of the month and into march, lots of governing factors here, also the SSWE should be underway this week, so that’s something to watch as well

The 18z GFS had a snowstorm west of 35 to start March but it is the 18z GFS

[cstrunk]

I'm gonna pistol-whip the next person that says "SSWE"!

[Wthrfan]

Looks like we are getting an early start to Spring in Oklahoma. Highs in the upper 60s-70s for the next week. Our friendly Houston meterologist's wall held unfortunately! See everyone next winter!

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately the GFS and Euro Weeklies have been consistently indicating we will have a drier than normal March for a while now...

I do not put a lot of stock into long term forecasts. Things can change.

Aren't these the same long term forecasts that said winter would come back the end of February too

I don't think anyone has a clue after the way this winter has been tbh

No doubt, the more you follow long range forecasting closely the more you realize how much of a casino game of chance it is! Literal coin flip beyond a 2 week forecast...50% chance of above or below normal precip and temp. I appreciate long range forecasters who are bold enough to put their forecasts out there but unfortunately with the shear volume of massive unknowns in the climate world as you get further out in time, will likely have more egg on their face over time than not!

7-14 day forecasts are where the good pro mets can really add value IMO!

[Iceresistance]

I'm gonna pistol-whip the next person that says "SSWE"!

This one is the real deal actually

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SF9H8.png

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yep this one is the real deal, should be underway this week at some point, now it just becomes a question of what aide of the globe does this effect, and to what extent are the impacts since it wont be felt till early march. Always the million dollar question with these SSWE’s, whether that leads to a split, stretch or complete disruption of the PV remains to be seen, just gotta watch it

[Edwards Limestone]

I'm gonna pistol-whip the next person that says "SSWE"!

[South Texas Storms]

Don't get me wrong, our weather has been beautiful lately. But with spring quickly approaching it's really important that we get back into a wetter pattern soon. If not I fear we are in for another brutal hot and dry summer.

[Ntxw]

Don't get me wrong, our weather has been beautiful lately. But with spring quickly approaching it's really important that we get back into a wetter pattern soon. If not I fear we are in for another brutal hot and dry summer.

I am learning in real time the PDO modulates our long term precip patterns while ENSO is short to medium term. Kind of knew already but more confirmation since 2000. Until the waters off Japan cools, PDO remains stagnant.

[South Texas Storms]

Don't get me wrong, our weather has been beautiful lately. But with spring quickly approaching it's really important that we get back into a wetter pattern soon. If not I fear we are in for another brutal hot and dry summer.

I am learning in real time the PDO modulates our long term precip patterns while ENSO is short to medium term. Kind of knew already but more confirmation since 2000. Until the waters off Japan cools, PDO remains stagnant.

And unfortunately it's really hard to predict and right now it appears we are in the negative cycle of it. That does not bode well for rainfall here for the foreseeable future.

[Stratton23]

Unfortunately I dont think we will see a return to wet weather any time soon, march is looking pretty dry, but at least it should be cooler than normal, so at least we have something positive lol

[jasons2k]

I’m going to have to run my sprinklers already this week.
In February.
Not a good sign.
Last two systems were a complete bust over here and don’t seen any relief for awhile, unfortunately.

[CaptinCrunch]

I’m going to have to run my sprinklers already this week.
In February.
Not a good sign.
Last two systems were a complete bust over here and don’t seen any relief for awhile, unfortunately.

Bro, I've mowed my front and back yards twice already since late January

[orangeblood]

The good news is the past 2 months of rainfall look fantastic, particularly for the time of year!!!

[Stratton23]

Unfortunately the tropics might be the only way we get widespread rains during the summer months, pretty concerned for development closer to home this season, particularly the gulf of mexico

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting read about February 2021…

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021

 https://x.com/noaancei/status/1760016561627333073