Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

It's backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk!

From Huntsville:

THE SITUATION GETS A BIT INTRIGUING SUN EVENING/NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW (COLD CORE AND VORTICITY LOBE) SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A NARROW WINDOW
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX (POSSIBLY ALL SNOW ABOVE 1.5 KFT) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL
ISSUES...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

From Birmingham:

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUN REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC LOWS. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING SUN NIGHT SO WILL NOT MENTION THE "S" WORD JUST YET.

FOR NOW HAVE PRECIP ENDING ON MON...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER THEN POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED AT LEAST INTO TUE IF NOT WED
AS WELL. LOWER THICKNESSES COULD WORK INTO THE AREA MON
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...SO IF
PRECIP STICKS AROUND THRU THAT TIME THEN WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE
CLOSELY AT SOME POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP. HOWEVER THIS IS A LONG WAY
DOWN THE ROAD AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

[MGC]

Yea Brent, you better get them snow tires on the car. This darn global warming has really got me puzzled...talk of snow in the deep south in November.....MGC

[Brent]

Evening laughs from the NAM:



From Memphis:

SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE
00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY
NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA
AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A
REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

[Brent]

Looking more interesting...

from the HPC:

SFC TO H5 MASS
FIELDS...THERMO-DYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA...FOLLOWING THE LOW
TRACK AND COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY

from HUN:

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFT EAST/NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AS
DEEPENING "CUT-OFF" UPR LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. FAVORABLE UPR LVL DYNAMICS/FORCING FROM VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER AIR
WILL ALSO INVADE DURING THIS TIME. NAM/GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
RA/SN MIX POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. WITH SFC TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING /UPR 30S TO MID 40S/...NOT ANTICIPATING
TRAVEL HAZARDS WITH ANY SNOW SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES VERY TRICKY DURING THIS TIME
AS CLOSED UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. EXACT TRACK IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE ALONG A JACKSON /MS/ TO CHATTANOOGA /TN/ LINE. WITH THIS
TRACK...PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A BIT TOO EARLY TO ENTERTAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMS BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL ON
MAINLY GRASSY/ELEVATED AREAS. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AND FINE-TUNED WITH TIME.

from BMX:

THEN THE CHALLENGE BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE LOW DEEPENING AS LOW AS 538
DECAMETERS AT 500MB AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE
FROZEN PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
THE UPPER LOW PRODUCES FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. QG DYNAMICS ARE ALSO INDICATING INCREASING
VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND DEEPENING PRESSURES OF 5-7MB/HR ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THICKNESS VALUES FROM 1000-500MB WILL DEFINITELY
BE COLD ENOUGH...AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING AROUND 530 DECAMETERS.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT
THE SURFACE...BUT THE PROFILE QUICKLY GOES BELOW FREEZING LESS THAN
1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PROFILE ALSO CONTAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD ACTUALLY OBSERVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40
DEGREES AND HAVE A QUICK SNOW SHOWER OR TWO DUE TO THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. REGARDLESS OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...VERY RAW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH NOT
REACHING ABOVE THE LOWER 40S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

and from FFC, straight to the point: SOME WRAP AROUND
EFFECTS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WITH SUCH LOW
THICKNESS VALUES FORECAST...SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR NORTH GEORGIA MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

[bella_may]

Just checked my forecast. It says snow may mix in late tomorrow

[Brent]

From BMX:

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA ON
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
VERNON TO BIRMINGHAM TO ONEONTA. THE SNOW COULD BEGIN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...ELEVATED
ROADWAYS AND AREAS HIGHER THAN 800 FEET COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SLICK
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS UPDATED...SO STAY TUNED
TO FURTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS AND STATEMENTS.\

TWC is extremely bullish:

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
545 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX WITH AND GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA.
PRECIPITATION WILL END TUESDAY MORNING.

ALZ017>029-034-282200-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0005.111129T0600Z-111129T1500Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...
COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...
SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...CENTREVILLE
545 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...RESULTING IN QUICK ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.


$$

[somethingfunny]

The forecast according to NWS Huntsville (who hasn't bitten) and its' surrounding offices (who are biting)....

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

MSZ002>006-009-014>017-TNZ053-089>092-290130-
/O.CON.KMEG.WS.A.0003.111129T0000Z-111129T1800Z/
MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-
PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-CHESTER-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
1129 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6
AM CST TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Brent]

Jackson, TN

[MGC]

Been reports of light sleet as far south as the north shore of Lake Ponchatrain this afternoon....MGC

[Fyzn94]

As for central Arkansas, NWS is expecting occasional snow accumulating to a trace, while other models predict no precipitation whatsoever. This is just going to be a wait-and-see situation for us, even though nothing significant is expected here.

[BigB0882]

Is this a cold core low, which is why the winter precip is confined only to certain areas and not north?

[vbhoutex]

Is this a cold core low, which is why the winter precip is confined only to certain areas and not north?

Yes. At least that is my understanding of it.

[Brent]

BUST for most of Alabama. My warm and dry air concerns proved to be doom of the event. Very little snow fell outside of a few higher elevations.

Next.

[MGC]

First of December and ice covering the bird bath...checked the thermo and its 30 at 1am....winter has come in like a lion.....MGC

[bella_may]

This discussion is so dead.I hate la Nina! ;( LOL

[BigB0882]

It is early! We have had some amazing winters recently, though. I can't be too upset at the thought of having one normal winter, lol

[Kennethb]

It is so early in the season, we have a ways to go. There are some signs of potential colder weather later in December. Even if we can just get some decent preciptitation for the drought areas, that would be good.

[Countrygirl911]

they are predicting snow flurries tonight early morning and up to an inch in north mississippi