Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

Latest NBM.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674414000/1674777600-CZuOGZupM6k.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_precip_inch/1674414000/1674712800-kkJcm38DYRg.png

Probably info available on this, at what percentile do they use to produce this model? 25%-75%? Some outliers can really throw off the data

Not sure regarding percentiles (if similar to SREF), but there is a slew of model inputs associated with it and so while there can be some outliers (just like ensembles), I think that's also the goal of using this form of model guidance (blended approach to grid forecasting) so that you eliminate the extremes at both ends of the spectrum. Latest output

[Ntxw]

Trend for DFW is not looking great, too warm, nudged northwest for the snow. NW Texas and Oklahoma still looking pretty good and along the Red River.

Medium and long range look for a cold outbreak next week.

[Iceresistance]

It seems like that the 12z CMC acknowledges me on who's going to get the bullseye in Oklahoma.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

[orangeblood]

woah, 12Z CMC Upper pattern is incredible! Just look at that cross polar flow with Major ULL digging down the west coast

[Iceresistance]

woah, 12Z CMC Upper pattern is incredible! Just look at that cross polar flow with Major ULL digging down the west coast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675101600-nYBMvCD1UYE.png

Combine it with a 1063 mb HP in NW Canada as well at +114 hours.

[bubba hotep]

Trend for DFW is not looking great, too warm, nudged northwest for the snow. NW Texas and Oklahoma still looking pretty good and along the Red River.

Medium and long range look for a cold outbreak next week.

DFW is left hugging the 12z HRRR and the Euro

Maybe not a bad combo but have to wait for the 12z Euro.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:double: woah, 12Z CMC Upper pattern is incredible! Just look at that cross polar flow with Major ULL digging down the west coast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675101600-nYBMvCD1UYE.png

Come to Papa!

[Gotwood]

Trend for DFW is not looking great, too warm, nudged northwest for the snow. NW Texas and Oklahoma still looking pretty good and along the Red River.

Medium and long range look for a cold outbreak next week.

DFW is left hugging the 12z HRRR and the Euro

Maybe not a bad combo but have to wait for the 12z Euro.

Yeah models are really pointless at this moment we will know our fate by tonight.

[rwfromkansas]

Winter weather advisory issued, but not for DFW. Not even Collin/Parker/Denton.

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_44.png

[gpsnowman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_44.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012306/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_22.png

Impressive moisture for sure. Just to dang warm this go around. I have a feeling cold and moisture will make at least one rendezvous in February. Big fatties falling from the sky tomorrow will be a bonus. I'll definitely take a cold rainy Tuesday.

[starsfan65]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_44.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012306/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_22.png

Impressive moisture for sure. Just to dang warm this go around. I have a feeling cold and moisture will make at least one rendezvous in February. Big fatties falling from the sky tomorrow will be a bonus. I'll definitely take a cold rainy Tuesday.

too warm?

[gpsnowman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012306/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_22.png

Impressive moisture for sure. Just to dang warm this go around. I have a feeling cold and moisture will make at least one rendezvous in February. Big fatties falling from the sky tomorrow will be a bonus. I'll definitely take a cold rainy Tuesday.

too warm?

Yes. DFW will get plenty of rain tomorrow and maybe in the evening we get some wet flakes. Simply too warm for substantial snowfall for most of the day. In a situation like this though a one or two degree difference could make a difference. We will have to wait and see tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is actually a slight improvement over 00z for northern DFW. Don't underestimate the power of a dynamic system to cool the column and produce a period of heavy wet snow.

[orangeblood]

China just set its All-Time record low of -63.4F yesterday, previous record set back in 1969. Something big is brewing! You can see the cross polar drain directly, across all models now, from that part of the world over to the lower 48. This should start getting a lot more buzz in national media

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

[Gotwood]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675080000-6RWE65DxMf0.png

Better have some precipitation with that cold this time.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675080000-6RWE65DxMf0.png

Better have some precipitation with that cold this time.

Well that system digging into Cali is exactly what you want to see with this setup

[Ntxw]

12Z Euro almost identical to CMC of Siberian drain

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1674475200/1675080000-6RWE65DxMf0.png

Euro tries to hold it up as much as it can initially but very close to major set up.

[bubba hotep]

Euro trying to deliver a big hitter with plenty of cold over the top?