Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

Hourly temp forecast for Dallas via weather.com. This is my benchmark for temp watching throughout the day.

At 8a 1/23/26:
6p 40°
7p 38
8p 37
9p 37
10p 36
11p 36
12a 35
1:00a 34
2a 33
3a 32
4a 32
5a 31
6a 30°

Yeah apparently the metroplex has a heat shield over it according to the models.

[Snowman67]

Looking at multiple weather sites, the freeze line is already south of OKC (around Moore).

[wxman22]

The 12Z HRRR is onboard with the large band of snow on the backside!

[WacoWx]

Adding more hours, 'cause why not...

Hourly temp forecast for Dallas via weather.com. This is my benchmark for temp watching throughout the day.

At 8a 1/23/26:
9a 50°
10a 49
11a 50
12p 49
1p 48
2p 47
3p 46
4p 43
5p 41
6p 40°
7p 38
8p 37
9p 37
10p 36
11p 36
12a 35
1:00a 34
2a 33
3a 32
4a 32
5a 31
6a 30°

[wxman22]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

[cstrunk]

Hourly temp forecast for Dallas via weather.com. This is my benchmark for temp watching throughout the day.

At 8a 1/23/26:
6p 40°
7p 38
8p 37
9p 37
10p 36
11p 36
12a 35
1:00a 34
2a 33
3a 32
4a 32
5a 31
6a 30°

Yeah apparently the metroplex has a heat shield over it according to the models.

There was an argument about the Ouachita mountain shadow effect earlier and whether or not it was a thing. It is a real thing with shallow cold airmasses. You're seeing it on the model temp maps, and will be able to see it in observations. Surface flow is northeasterly which puts DFW in the path of the shadow.

[cstrunk]

Most models have Longview down to freezing around midnight tonight. The 12z HRR and 09z RAP includes a devastating ice storm for the Arklatex with common 1"+ amounts of ice. The 12z NAMNST also has heavy amounts but a bit narrower and a little farther south. The 12z GFS is even farther south with the ice. I hope all of them are overdoing it.

[Brent]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

Yeah Tulsa mentioned convective too

I think that's where the 20+ inches is coming from. The models trying to show it

Which the Euro again had right over OKC and Tulsa

[utpmg]

Here in East Austin I'm getting rain, more than the forecast "drizzle" this morning. Yay for the water. (Spoiled my last chance at a bike ride this week though.) Local mets concerned it'll wash away road treatment.

[Portastorm]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

Yeah Tulsa mentioned convective too

I think that's where the 20+ inches is coming from. The models trying to show it

Which the Euro again had right over OKC and Tulsa

Enjoy it! Thundersnow/sleet is a rare treat, especially in the Southern Plains. Hope y’all get a storm for the ages but don’t lose power.

[TomballEd]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

Saw that a couple of times up in DFW. One time, it was only one rumble in Bedford was during the Leon Lett bowl at the old stadium in Irving. I remember being on 157 and the sleet was hard and thunder/lightning was frequent.

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Precip also much aggressive with 2" plus qpf amounts with liquid to frz precip occurs...6-7" sleet totals across a big chunk of North Texas now



Frz Rain down to I-10

[Gotwood]

Hourly temp forecast for Dallas via weather.com. This is my benchmark for temp watching throughout the day.

At 8a 1/23/26:
6p 40°
7p 38
8p 37
9p 37
10p 36
11p 36
12a 35
1:00a 34
2a 33
3a 32
4a 32
5a 31
6a 30°

Yeah apparently the metroplex has a heat shield over it according to the models.

There was an argument about the Ouachita mountain shadow effect earlier and whether or not it was a thing. It is a real thing with shallow cold airmasses. You're seeing it on the model temp maps, and will be able to see it in observations. Surface flow is northeasterly which puts DFW in the path of the shadow.

Yes I remember now thanks for reminding me. We will see how the models handle it during this set up.

[snownado]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Nope...

[Ralph's Weather]

I saw thundersleet in March 2014, several inches fell in a short time with lots of lightning and thunder. I was living in a metal bardo at the time and it was crazy.

I am liking the trends today going towards more sleet for I-20 corridor. I know I am not matching NWS around here but I do not think my area sees 0.25" of freezing rain. Its risky forecasting the lower freezing rain amounts as it is the difference in utility issues or not. I still say most likely area for the highest ice accretions in northern Deep East Texas.

[Snowman67]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

NWS also mentions thunder here overnight Saturday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yall rang? It me.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Nope...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hF0cVDCc/Screenshot-2026-01-23-084202.png [/url]

I think he’s saying it’s an indication it could be trending in that direction, not necessarily that the verbatim output currently shows it

[snownado]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

Nothing widespread of course, but the lapse rates, MUCAPE and K-Index values all looks marginally favorable for thunder between 06z and 12z Saturday.

[cstrunk]

I saw thundersleet in March 2014, several inches fell in a short time with lots of lightning and thunder. I was living in a metal bardo at the time and it was crazy.

I am liking the trends today going towards more sleet for I-20 corridor. I know I am not matching NWS around here but I do not think my area sees 0.25" of freezing rain. Its risky forecasting the lower freezing rain amounts as it is the difference in utility issues or not. I still say most likely area for the highest ice accretions in northern Deep East Texas.

I hope you're right!