Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[cycloneye]

For Portastorm,Steve and any member who are always interested on how is El Nino doing,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.Ummm,this update shows decreases in all the El Nino areas including El Nino 3-4.A definite trend or is only noise?

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.7ºC
Niño 3= +1.1ºC
Niño1+2= +0.3ºC


This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3= +0.8ºC
Niño1+2= +0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[msstateguy83]

sorry folks i have been busy most of the am with several issues HOWEVER let me just be as clear as i possibly can
this event taking shape for LATE WED NIGHT - FRI AM looks BIG, MAJOR WHATEVER TERM YOU WANNA USE IT FITS AS IN A MAJOR,MAJOR WINTER STORM... iam afraid this event is going to make the christmas eve storm look SMALL... we will have a round of ice before the snow i think some areas could get a 1/2 to 3/4 or even up to 1 inch of ice before the snow, on top of winds blowing up to say 40 mph this will create widespread power problems... then comes the snow that gets tricky with amts but it will be HEAVY anyway you cut it...

stay tuned i will try and post a more detailed forecast in the coming hours...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Weatherdude20]

I agree with the serverity of this event msstateguy83, thank you for the update.

[Weatherdude20]

I thought this was worth posting again...

Hey guys, thanks for contributing to the thread, I'm back with an urgent udpate.


This Potent Winter Storm brewing has the potential to be as powerfull has the Christmas Eve Storm or stronger. As of now, Areas North of 1-20 to Red River could see 4-6 Inches of Snow fom Thursday afternoon to Friday. Changeover should occur NorthWest to SouthEast from Gainseville to Decatur to Mineral Wells by 2:00pm and from Sherman to Denton to Fort Worth line around 3:30 all snow. Approaching the Dallas area at 4:00 pm with temps hovering around 32. Along and south of Interstate 20, at this time you could pick up 1-3 inches of Snow Accumulation. This can or may change from now to then, Lack of data applies. Data from the Low will become moire avalible post landfall, which is expected around tomorrow evening.

Furthermore: Expectations Thursday... Temps starting around mid- to lower 40's droping steadily througout the day. This will cause a cold rain, until 1:00 pm then possibly a light mix gradually changing over by 4:00.

Note: A Heavier swath of Snow bands will persist causing snow Drifting, Blowing Snow, and heavier accumulations from Amarillo to Childress, and again from Oklahoma City to Ardmore, Oklahoma. These Bullseye locations may need a stronger Warning issued in the coming days. A Winter Strom Watch may be neccesary for the DFW area Thursday afternoon.

I will agree the NWS is downplaying this event as always, but please be understanding, as a national oraganiztion they can't predict a major Texas Snow Storm and be wrong about it so they must be conservative about it.

Please stay tuned, and be careful, after a nap, with Mild temps persiting for 2 weeks Winter will awaken Thursday, be careful, have fun ! Enjoy !


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[BrokenGlass]

Ntxw, can you explain what you're saying in layman's terms for this relative noob:

One thing to note there is very cold air building and moving in northwest\central Canada.

Edit: This storm also wants to close off which could change some things vs the open wave it had prior.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, can you explain what you're saying in layman's terms for this relative noob:

One thing to note there is very cold air building and moving in northwest\central Canada.

Edit: This storm also wants to close off which could change some things vs the open wave it had prior.

Meaning a pattern change and cooler air working in for February. As for the low, a closed low would pull more moisture back behind the cold front.

[msstateguy83]

this is the way i see things going down as of rightnow... basically along and north of i-44 MAJOR SNOW STORM.. TO THE
SOUTH A MAJOR ICE STORM.. dont get me wrong there *WILL BE* snow in the 'ICE STORM' area HOWEVER the MAIN
precip type that will cause most of the problems will be the ice. there could still i think be a good 4-6 inches even in
the ice storm area.. this needs to be watched very closely as any change in the storm track could take all of this north
or south of the current track.. PERSONS IN THE RED SHADED AREA I FEEL ARE IN THE MOST DANGER OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES
DUE TO POWER POLLS AND TREES COMING DOWN FROM THE ICE, I THINK THIS IS THE TYPE OF EVENT THAT COULD LEAVE
THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN THE DARK FOR A LONG TIME DUE TO THE NUMBER OF POWER POLLS THAT COME
DOWN DUE TO THE ICE, POWER COMPANIES BEING OVERWHELMED..

EDIT: just for you folks that have not heard this before if your into meteorology iam sure you have just ONE QUARTER INCH of ice is like
adding 500 pounds of weight per line span on the power lines.. so you can see with over 1 inch with what iam thinking why i think
this could be so so serious as we head into the late wednesday - friday timeframe.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

[Ntxw]

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

I think that's quite an underestimate. Even without the winter precip the rain amounts would be no less to laugh about. And with falling temperatures anything left over would create icy problems overnight.

[msstateguy83]

i have to agree with wxman57 precip what there is will be light from near dallas to the tyler area.. points south
of dallas-fortworth will also likely be on the light side as well but i-20 northbound from dallas north to i-40 to near okc
there will be MAJOR problems with ice in my opinion.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

I think that's quite an underestimate. Even without the winter precip the rain amounts would be no less to laugh about. And with falling temperatures anything left over would create icy problems overnight.

Well, there could be some heavy rain in the warm air, that's true. But I see nothing to indicate an INCH of ice accumulation in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. Models indicate that the precip shuts down fairly soon after frontal passage. For example, here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/dew points vs. 3-hr precip. Precip is over with by the time temps drop below freezing. And with a brisk NW wind, roads should dry off quickly after the precip ends. So maybe there would be some ice forming in any puddles in ditches, but it's not looking like a problem for roadways in the Dallas area.

[Weatherdude20]

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

I think that's quite an underestimate. Even without the winter precip the rain amounts would be no less to laugh about. And with falling temperatures anything left over would create icy problems overnight.

Im gonna go with Ntxw this time... BUT areas south and east will be alot lighter accumulations than ares further north and west.

[msstateguy83]

ok sorry for the confusion.. my graphic was rushed and is BY NO MEANS perfect i would say more on the order
of no more then a quarter inch of ice for DFW.. but MAXED OUT AT NEAR 1 INCH along the redriver counties in southern ok & far
north tx..

EDIT: just my opinion but temps for the whole peroid rightnow are likely on the HIGH end, we should see that coming down
in later runs, happens ALOT if you notice models lag the front behind i would not be shocked to see the front at the door
of dfw wednesday evening but time will tell... with frzing temps by daybreak thu am but we will see...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Weatherdude20]

ok sorry for the confusion.. my graphic was rushed and is BY NO MEANS perfect i would say more on the order
of no more then a quarter inch of ice for DFW.. but MAXED OUT AT NEAR 1 INCH along the redriver counties in southern ok & far
north tx..


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

What? Are you estimating that ICE? (and 1/4 inch at that) Is all that DFW is going to get? I think someone is lost, are you not going to account for snow? just ice? .........

[msstateguy83]

iam not gonna pull the trigger yet on heavy snow for dfw proper but we will see... iam fairly confident rightnow the
heavy snow will remain just north of dfw proper but we will see...

EDIT: iam willing to say MINERAL WELLS, BRIDGEPORT, DECATUR UP TO BOWIE, GAINESVILLE, SHERMAN-DENISON
COULD GET SOME OF THE HEAVY SNOW.. BUT AS OF RIGHTNOW THIS IS A PRETTY COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH
THE ICE & SNOW AND WHEN AND WHERE THE TRANSITION WILL BE THAT ITS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY
HOW MUCH OVER DFW. I MEAN I KNOW THE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT *HOWEVER*
ITS ALL ABOUT THE TIMING OF WHEN AND WHERE WE GO FROM FRZ RAIN,SLEET TO SNOW..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TrekkerCC]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

I have to agree here. To get any major winter storm in Texas, you have to get all elements almost perfect. A few years ago (2007?), the entire area was under an Ice Storm Warning. It verified in Ft. Worth and points westward, but the ice wasn't much of a problem in Dallas during that event. The warm air aloft kept the temperatures from really falling below freezing, and the precipitation had almost left by the time the secondary arctic air surge came through. We did get some ice, but it was not 1/4" break power lines down ice. Now - if the models are wrong with the front timing, there is more moisture available in the atmosphere, or or we get a quick changeover to sleet or snow, we could get a major winter storm, but for right now it looks like a nice dusting to inch of snow (nothing to sneeze about).

[Portastorm]

I know one thing ... if the 12z Euro from today were to verify ... locales in my part of the state would have a shot at some freezing precip. However, the model has a known bias for holding back too much low pressure and not being progressive enough.

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be.

[wxman57]

ok sorry for the confusion.. my graphic was rushed and is BY NO MEANS perfect i would say more on the order
of no more then a quarter inch of ice for DFW.. but MAXED OUT AT NEAR 1 INCH along the redriver counties in southern ok & far
north tx..


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I would say that moisture would be too limited for 1/2" or more precip once surface temps reach near freezing in Dallas on Friday morning. In addition, the entire (shallow) moisture layer in Dallas by 09Z Friday is sub-freezing. A sounding plot for 03Z Friday has the freezing level at 10,000 ft as the rain is coming to an end. Between 06Z and 09Z, there could be a period of light freezing rain (on elevated surfaces) but only trace amounts are indicated due to the rapidly dwindling moisture supply. After about 09-12Z, anything falling would be frozen (snow), but there's a very limited amount of moisture then.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's not looking like much of a storm for NE TX (Dallas to Tyler). Moisture there decreases quickly after frontal passage. Have to go north of the Red River into Oklahoma for major problems. Farther north, say central OK to northeast OK and east of there through Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky and ENE could see heavy amounts.

I think that's quite an underestimate. Even without the winter precip the rain amounts would be no less to laugh about. And with falling temperatures anything left over would create icy problems overnight.

Well, there could be some heavy rain in the warm air, that's true. But I see nothing to indicate an INCH of ice accumulation in the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. Models indicate that the precip shuts down fairly soon after frontal passage. For example, here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/dew points vs. 3-hr precip. Precip is over with by the time temps drop below freezing. And with a brisk NW wind, roads should dry off quickly after the precip ends. So maybe there would be some ice forming in any puddles in ditches, but it's not looking like a problem for roadways in the Dallas area.

I think this would be correct on the current storm track, however a futher south track across TX would pull the colder air in faster, and increase the wrap around moisture as well increasing the chances for ice/snow fall across the D/FW area and east. would that not be correct?

[wxman57]

I know one thing ... if the 12z Euro from today were to verify ... locales in my part of the state would have a shot at some freezing precip. However, the model has a known bias for holding back too much low pressure and not being progressive enough.

Not getting my kicking shoes on just yet, Lucy! But if I'm living in Amarillo or Lubbock or Wichita Falls, I would be.

Not sure what you're looking at, Portastorm. I don't see any frozen precip near Austin in the 12Z ECMWF. The precip would be long-gone by the time temps are cold enough.