Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Edwards Limestone]

Current weather is absolutely awful for Dec, so I hope you guys (and the models) are on to something here.
Was out doing yard work yesterday afternoon and the humidity was miserable.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here's a comparison valid 10 days out. Euro has a quite progressive pattern with no cold air in the Northern Plains and western Canada (compared to GFS). Euro indicates mild temps with no frozen precip are all. It's all maritime-Pacific air across the U.S. I would tend to believe the Euro. Could be cooler than this week, but closer to normal temps. Possibly 70s across TX leading up to Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/10Day500mb.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/10DayTemps.JPG

Know how I know you’re trolling? You’re all alone forecasting warmth.

Ensembles look great for a much below end to the month. I’d make a bet with ya we don’t see 70s again until January.

I think that he's hoping that the Ensembles will trend warmer later on, but the cold signals usually trend stronger, it's already very strong considering being 1-2 weeks out.

He’s too much of a respected veteran to chase control runs this far out. He’s going to use ensembles. No ensemble package shows much warmth past next Thursday. Some seasonal days at first, then colder.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[Iceresistance]

Know how I know you’re trolling? You’re all alone forecasting warmth.

Ensembles look great for a much below end to the month. I’d make a bet with ya we don’t see 70s again until January.

I think that he's hoping that the Ensembles will trend warmer later on, but the cold signals usually trend stronger, it's already very strong considering being 1-2 weeks out.

He’s too much of a respected veteran to chase control runs this far out. He’s going to use ensembles. No ensemble package shows much warmth past next Thursday. Some seasonal days at first, then colder.

Yep, my Local TV met mentioned it, but the forecast is too short to show the snowfall potential being 10-16 days out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Latest from Cosgrove…

That colder look on the most recent numerical model runs....

....is likely real. And, in time, will be accompanied by frozen forms of precipitation. I used a blend of the ensemble forecasts of the GFS and GGEM schemes after December 13, which show the impacts from a full-latitude winter storm that impacts the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley before moving into eastern Quebec next week. This feature will again deepen and extend the snowpack into the lower 48 states, while also creating some severe weather and heavy rain threats from Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South.

There is a lot more storm-related energy where that came form, the Pacific Basin. The set-up is simple: ridging builds along and above the Arctic Circle, while cold pools and cyclonic circulations move along or below the border with Canada. If the disturbance is large and strong enough, Arctic values will get drawn far to the south. Using the variant model members and the CFs series, we must deal with the active and quite cold pattern through the first ten days of January. After that point, we may see a decent "Thaw" period before a very wintry turn late next month and in February.

[orangeblood]

alright alright alright!!! This place is alive and getting into the Holiday spirit…nothing better than an Arctic Outbreak discussion leading up to the Holidays! I’ll be dialed in

Historically speaking, Discontinuous Retrogression patterns this time of year deliver some of the most severe widespread cold outbreaks this country has ever seen. The potential is definitely on the table…as JB pointed out, the Major Ensembles are going to 1983 Upper Levels. Buckle up!

[Iceresistance]

alright alright alright!!! This place is alive and getting into the Holiday spirit…nothing better than an Arctic Outbreak discussion leading up to the Holidays! I’ll be dialed in

Historically speaking, Discontinuous Retrogression patterns this time of year deliver some of the most severe widespread cold outbreaks this country has ever seen. The potential is definitely on the table…as JB pointed out, the Major Ensembles are going to 1983 Upper Levels. Buckle up!

Welcome back! Now the only thing missing before this is complete is Portastorm!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

alright alright alright!!! This place is alive and getting into the Holiday spirit…nothing better than an Arctic Outbreak discussion leading up to the Holidays! I’ll be dialed in

Historically speaking, Discontinuous Retrogression patterns this time of year deliver some of the most severe widespread cold outbreaks this country has ever seen. The potential is definitely on the table…as JB pointed out, the Major Ensembles are going to 1983 Upper Levels. Buckle up!

[wxman57]

My point is that there are major differences in the flow pattern that far out. The GFS has not performed well with the upper air pattern beyond 3-5 days, so I would not believe it. Besides, this is perfect December weather this week. Maybe a little cool, but tolerable. I'd love an 80 deg Christmas.

[snowballzzz]

My point is that there are major differences in the flow pattern that far out. The GFS has not performed well with the upper air pattern beyond 3-5 days, so I would not believe it. Besides, this is perfect December weather this week. Maybe a little cool, but tolerable. I'd love an 80 deg Christmas.

There is a place called Southern California that you would love!

[Cerlin]

I’m still finding it hard to trust the Euro after February 2021…we all remember how that turned out!

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1600821565582561281?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600811673430151170?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

1983, really? Did he just go there? I think he’s trippin

I’m gonna need to see a lot more over the next few days before I’d compare anything to 1983 lol

Upper levels look just like 1983. Doesn’t mean it will be that severe but it’s definitely an option from where we stand now.

Y’all get hung up on surface output way too far out.

No 2 years/outbreaks are the same. There are other things to account for such as air mass quality, which is what wxman57 has been criticizing from the EC. I don't believe in the EC either. Of late for whatever reason the Euro has struggled with the Pacific but has been good with the Atlantic.

But as noted we're all pretty clear this warmth must end!

[wxman57]

My point is that there are major differences in the flow pattern that far out. The GFS has not performed well with the upper air pattern beyond 3-5 days, so I would not believe it. Besides, this is perfect December weather this week. Maybe a little cool, but tolerable. I'd love an 80 deg Christmas.

There is a place called Southern California that you would love!

Water is way too cold there. I visited LA back in the early 1980s. Went to the beach and stuck my toe into the water and it nearly froze. No thanks! There has been talk of similarities to 1983 here. I remember 1983 well. Had a friend working in Oklahoma at the time. Big cold front sank slowly southward down the Plains. He was getting sub-freezing and icy weather while our temps in Houston were near 80 leading up to Christmas. Then it hit. Temps here didn't reach 32F for 5 days. Had a high in the low 20s a couple of the days, with a low in the single digits. South shore of Clear Lake received an inch of lake-effect snow on Christmas Eve. Rigs out in the Gulf reported snow. Water mains broke everywhere. People who had left to visit family for Christmas came home to find water flowing out of their homes and down the driveway. Quite a mess. Way colder than the February 2021 freeze, though there wasn't the ice problem like in 2021.

Back in 1983, we didn't have models that went out beyond about 72 hrs. I think we were using the MRF back then. No Euro, no Canadian models. Don't remember what the model was forecasting, I just know it got way too cold. Let's hope that we see nothing like 1983 (or 1989) ever again across Texas.

I don't know which long-range projection will be correct (if any). My cold-mogering coworker says cold air is coming down the last half of December. He's good, but he is a cold-mongerer, after all. I prefer to take a wait and see approach for now. Let's see what builds up in the source region. None of the models is indicating anything close to 1983 yet. Meanwhile, I'll enjoy the nice temps and hope that they continue into April.

[Iceresistance]

My point is that there are major differences in the flow pattern that far out. The GFS has not performed well with the upper air pattern beyond 3-5 days, so I would not believe it. Besides, this is perfect December weather this week. Maybe a little cool, but tolerable. I'd love an 80 deg Christmas.

There is a place called Southern California that you would love!

Southern Florida might be a better place for him.

[Iceresistance]

Woah! The 12z GFS has the storm action in Western Oklahoma! That is a huge jump to the west on the Severe Weather Potential for Next Monday!


We need to get past that first, then we can go absolutely crazy on the snow talk!

[Edwards Limestone]

What's the chatter on natural gas futures for the next month or so? Thinking about throwing some money at UNG ETF.

[Iceresistance]

I see another push of even colder air on the 12z GFS, and it's less than 10 days away!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

[Iceresistance]

Vorticity is suggesting that someone may get dumped on soon on the 12z GFS when those two areas collide.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

[orangeblood]

What's the chatter on natural gas futures for the next month or so? Thinking about throwing some money at UNG ETF.

The leveraged ETF BOIL is a wild one to play

[orangeblood]

Vorticity is suggesting that someone may get dumped on soon on the 12z GFS when those two areas collide.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

Yep, this is an Insane look inside 10 days…incredible block to the north