Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.

Can you elaborate on the Atlantic blocking you’re seeing in January? Maybe I’m missing something but when I look at the ensembles in the 12-16 day period, I actually don’t see much blocking in the NAO region.

[Ntxw]

Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.

Can you elaborate on the Atlantic blocking you’re seeing in January? Maybe I’m missing something but when I look at the ensembles in the 12-16 day period, I actually don’t see much blocking in the NAO region.

Above normal heights over Atlantic Canada and below normal heights over the eastern US.

[Stratton23]

Thats an insane CFS run! Havent seen that since the februrary 2021 arctic outbreak

[Harp.1]

Thats an insane CFS run! Havent seen that since the februrary 2021 arctic outbreak

Can you post, or elaborate?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 go back to page 21 on this thread, someone posted 2 pictures of the CFS, its quite nuts

[Ntxw]

Thats an insane CFS run! Havent seen that since the februrary 2021 arctic outbreak

Can you post, or elaborate?

-25F or greater anomalies for an extended period is usually associated with big arctic outbreaks. That's what that snapshot was showing for mid January.

[Brent]

This +PNA has to go

[Cpv17]

This +PNA has to go

Yeah and I was just going through Twitter and saw a bunch of people on there saying that when the EPO goes negative, the PNA will be positive too .. so yeah, idk.

[Brent]

This +PNA has to go

Yeah and I was just going through Twitter and saw a bunch of people on there saying that when the EPO goes negative, the PNA will be positive too .. so yeah, idk.

Yeah I'm still not convinced here everyone is talking about east of here

[Stratton23]

Im not that concerned about the + PNA , a cold month across this deep south is a pretty good bet

[Stratton23]

While the PNA looks to stay positive through the rest of december , it does look like we will see a peak in the + PNA for late december ( peaks on the 27th according to the EPS, then begins to weaken) but as the EPO starts to to negative in the beginning of january, the PNA starts to weaken towards weak positive on the EPS, eventually closer to neutral, im not worried about it, we will get cold, just how cold remains the bigger question

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I installed a Davis Vantage Vue today. Here is the link if you are interested:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXSPRIN1596

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231216/0fccc58b8e98d22007bcb1f0f3bc8ea4.jpg

It's a great PWS. Ive had it for a years. Just a tad pricey.

[Stratton23]

Euro sticks to its guns with a nice cooldown behind a storm system next week with the GFS and CMC not showing much coooler air, its funny to see the Euro be the model wanting to show a cool down when its usually quite the opposite lol

[Ntxw]

While the PNA looks to stay positive through the rest of december , it does look like we will see a peak in the + PNA for late december ( peaks on the 27th according to the EPS, then begins to weaken) but as the EPO starts to to negative in the beginning of january, the PNA starts to weaken towards weak positive on the EPS, eventually closer to neutral, im not worried about it, we will get cold, just how cold remains the bigger question

+PNA with a roaring STJ is workable. +PNA just doesn't work when we're looking for big cold blasts, since that shunts it to our east. Of course this isn't the kind of year we're looking for that kind of blast.

[Cpv17]

This +PNA has to go

Yeah and I was just going through Twitter and saw a bunch of people on there saying that when the EPO goes negative, the PNA will be positive too .. so yeah, idk.

Yeah I'm still not convinced here everyone is talking about east of here

I’m right there with ya. I’m more convinced that that east will see all the cold and snow and we just get left with a glancing blow that equates to near normal weather for us. I need to see more evidence that this PNA will go more towards neutral.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS has a big hitter cluster for DFW that dumps 4"+ with the Christmas system. Still an outlier with the mean just over 2".

[Brent]

Well our TV met teased much colder air around NYE but his track record at this range has been poor lol

At least there appears to be a decent rain event before Christmas. Could be worse I guess

[orangeblood]

Euro EPS has a big hitter cluster for DFW that dumps 4"+ with the Christmas system. Still an outlier with the mean just over 2".

Latest GFS not far off from a deep cold core ULL getting going next week

[Stratton23]

A cold core ULL would definitely make things interesting

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well our TV met teased much colder air around NYE but his track record at this range has been poor lol

At least there appears to be a decent rain event before Christmas. Could be worse I guess

I feel confident in NYE and NY being below normal