Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GaryHughes]

POST BY PORTASTORM ... I find myself in the unusual and somewhat disconcerting position of fully agreeing with wxman57. Sorry lads. But I admire your spunk and I hope I'm very wrong and y'all are right. And I'm hereby publicly giving you the right to give me tons of grief if it ends up that I gave up too soon.

Well folks I have some terrible news to pass on... The one and only Portastorm has lost his short battle with HMV (Heat Miser Voodoo ) and passed away from this thread today 2/15/2013... He will be Greatly missed.
[/quote]



PORTASTORM, I just read your eulogy a few days ago and it seems as though you have come back to life!

[Portastorm]

Not yet, Mr. Hughes ... not quite yet.

I may be bargaining for a new, albeit brief lease on life if the Euro and GFS continue the trend from today.

Don't put those salt trucks away just yet, sir.

[GaryHughes]

Not yet, Mr. Hughes ... not quite yet.

I may be bargaining for a new, albeit brief lease on life if the Euro and GFS continue the trend from today.

Don't put those salt trucks away just yet, sir.

Portastorm, what part of the GFS hour wise are you talking about? Looks like several chances, I'm not sure about temps.

[dhweather]

I think the last paragraph of the FWD discussion says it all:


TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A COLD OUTBREAK OF AIR IN THE NEXT 7-9 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW NIGHTS WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED OVER PART OF THE AREA.

We'll see dhweather. You're in the "winter's over" camp and I've made that proclamation as well. But if these model trends keep up for the next few days along with the teleconnection signals ... we may be eating some crow by late month.

I'd love to. Tasty crow.

The unfortunate reality is, we've been in a drought. Warm and dry seems to be the norm these days.

[South Texas Storms]

Not really. DFW currently has a rainfall surplus for 2013 with more rain expected throughout the next few days. Much cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the next 2 weeks as well.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Not really. DFW currently has a rainfall surplus for 2013 with more rain expected throughout the next few days. Much cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the next 2 weeks as well.

You are correct! Short term drought is not that bad in DFW, we have sufficient vegetation moisture and do have that surplus for the year so far. Winter is actually the dry season so getting the rain we had this winter is much welcome compared to what is normally seen DJF. It is the western part of the state and up in Oklahoma where it is most severe and dire as for north Texas it's only moderate with the aid of rain chances every few days will keep it at bay for the next month at least. Everything here (with the warmth) is about as green as I've seen it the past 2-3 years.

[aggiecutter]

Crosgrove says major winter storm for Texas to end the month:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... 02-20-2013

[Ntxw]

Crosgrove says major winter storm for Texas to end the month:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... 02-20-2013

He must be talking about this little slow mover . If that were to happen Portastorm would be in danger since the pitchforks and torches would be marching to PWC hq with him giving way for us to take him down calling winter over. Nervous times in scenic southwest Austin!

[Ntxw]

You know it's kinda scary watching the GFS and Euro walk step by step together, almost supernatural! When it comes to mature blocking they do not seem to struggle against each other as much. They are almost identical (relatively) showing the systems and cold air movement in sync rounding out February. I'll say it again, the strong west based -NAO is not to be trifled with. I would not be the least surprised if bombogenesis occurred somewhere underneath that block to break down that ridge and move everything out.

[GaryHughes]

What does Bombogenesis mean? If you live along the east coast of the United States, you may have heard a meteorologist say that a storm system or low pressure area is bombing out or that bombogenisis is about to occur. What do these terms actually mean? When a low pressure system or mid-latitude cyclone moves off of the East Coast of the United States during the colder months of the year, there is a tendency for many of them to intensify rapidly due to the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and the positioning of the low between two very different air masses. The air mass to the storm's north and west is usually very cold and dry while the air mass to the storm's south and east is very warm and moist. The stormís rapid intensification is known as ìbombogenesisî or I've heard meteorologists say that the storm is bombing out. The heat given off by the ocean is like fuel for the storm. Barometric pressure can drop rapidly causing the winds to increase rapidly. This is the reason noríeasters grow very strong and wreak havoc on the east coast. The warm moist air is extremely plentiful off the southeast coast. This energy feeds into the developing storm via the warm sector of the low. The warm air then rises as it encounters cooler air to the north. This rising motion causes condensation (clouds) to occur which then leads to precipitation. The condensation process actually creates heat (latent heat) and this process further adds fuel to the stormís energy. Upper level winds and conditions also add to the intensification process. If you look at a surface analysis map with the isobars, which are lines that connect equal barometric pressure, you will see that the lines are packed closely together in a storm that is bombing out. This indicates that the pressure gradient is steep and that the winds are strong. These storms sometimes produce hurricane force winds and they cover a large piece of real estate, extending farther than even the largest hurricanes.

[GaryHughes]

3:18 am sleeting pretty good mixed with the rain here!

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

Not really. DFW currently has a rainfall surplus for 2013 with more rain expected throughout the next few days. Much cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the next 2 weeks as well.

You are correct! Short term drought is not that bad in DFW, we have sufficient vegetation moisture and do have that surplus for the year so far. Winter is actually the dry season so getting the rain we had this winter is much welcome compared to what is normally seen DJF. It is the western part of the state and up in Oklahoma where it is most severe and dire as for north Texas it's only moderate with the aid of rain chances every few days will keep it at bay for the next month at least. Everything here (with the warmth) is about as green as I've seen it the past 2-3 years.

Unfortunately, long term has been and will continue to be.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah and they have been forecasting the drought across north Texas to get worse this winter and it has not.

[gpsnowman]

Crazy. Heavy sleet shower here in south Grand Prairie at 7:30 this morning.

[Texas Snowman]

Pshaw! Couldn't be sleet! Maybe very small hail or something like that. Winter is OVER with, don't you know!

I know because Luke Portastorm and his father Darth Wxman 57 said so!

[ravyrn]

I had sleet in Little Elm throughout the night. I sleep with my head by my window, and woke up more than a few times to sleet pinging the window.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Sleet/graupel in Richardson.

[Tireman4]

Crosgrove says major winter storm for Texas to end the month:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... 02-20-2013

Wait, wait. I respect Larry a ton, but did he not call Winter Over in Texas? Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Nice on and off sleet showers here in N TX along the red river.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry called "Winter Over."

Wxman 57 called "Winter Over." Although to be fair, he ALWAYS calls "Winter Over."

And even our beloved, fearless, and former leader Portastorm called "Winter Over."

But our new fearless leader - Ntxw - NEVER called "Winter Over."