Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Tstormwatcher]

Looks like a 2 to 3 week warmup is on the way unfortunately.

[bella_may]

My weather.com app lists a special weather bulletin saying some areas in extreme southwest Mississippi and the Florida parishes of Louisiana may see some sleet mixed in with rain tonight. Not too surprised but to have a special weather bulletin for a few sleet pellets? lol

Hmm interesting. I'm not too terribly far from there. It makes u wonder how cold temps will get. Certainly we could have some snow/sleet mix if the moisture arrives sooner than expected.

[BigB0882]

Looks like a 2 to 3 week warmup is on the way unfortunately.

Perhaps we will see a warm up but it sounds very likely that it will be followed by some seriously cold weather.

[gsytch]

Where and when is this cold air going to arrive? LRF are not showing any cold air coming down and there is nothing bottled up in Canada. Do tell.

Looks like a 2 to 3 week warmup is on the way unfortunately.

Perhaps we will see a warm up but it sounds very likely that it will be followed by some seriously cold weather.

[Tstormwatcher]

Where and when is this cold air going to arrive? LRF are not showing any cold air coming down and there is nothing bottled up in Canada. Do tell.

Looks like a 2 to 3 week warmup is on the way unfortunately.

Perhaps we will see a warm up but it sounds very likely that it will be followed by some seriously cold weather.

The GFS is showing epic arctic air invading the lower 48 at 360 hours.

[vbhoutex]

Those of us in the South will see our normal "January thaw" which according to most models will be followed by an extended period of very cold(for us) weather. Whether it will be epic remains to be seen, but there are definite signs that that could be the case.

[MGC]

Way too far out to even consider the models output at this time IMO....too many times this time of the year the models are screaming Artic outbreak in the long term only to bust......MGC

[Lane]

starting to wonder if we will have a winter in the deep south now.

[Snowluvr]

We probably won't. The cold will eventually try to make it's way down, but will probably stall out in Texas and Arkansas. I'm sure we will see some cool air before winter is over but nothing major.

[Tstormwatcher]

We probably won't. The cold will eventually try to make it's way down, but will probably stall out in Texas and Arkansas. I'm sure we will see some cool air before winter is over but nothing major.

I am pretty much in agreement. Another winter bust.

[BigB0882]

Two great winters in a row and now two non existent winters in a row? Oh well, not much we can do. Still time for things to change but I wont hold my breath unless the MJO jumps on board. It seems to be the missing link and a pretty important one at that.

It is supposed to be near 80 this weekend. 80!!! That is just gross.

[Snowluvr]

Yup it's horrible. I had my hopes up like everyone else. We are just to close to the gulf and it takes an absolute miracle to get moisture and cold air at the same time down here.... Sux

[Agua]

Yup it's horrible. I had my hopes up like everyone else. We are just to close to the gulf and it takes an absolute miracle to get moisture and cold air at the same time down here.... Sux

At least you recognize this. The further south of Jackson you go, experience has demonstrated, its increasingly difficult to get the right timing.

[Kennethb]

Today marks the 40th anniversary, a Friday then too, of an interesting winter weather event in South Louisiana. Here in Baton Rouge it snowed.

Keep in mind this was before internet, Weather Channel and cable TV. We only had 2 TV stations and the news and weather was only broadcast at noon, 6, and 10. None of the morning shows, 4, 5, 9 o’clock broadcasts.

On Tuesday afternoon, at school I noticed the water dripping from the broken gutter had ice, showing it was below freezing.

At home on the weather we were advised that we were under a Winter Storm Warning. I recall Mike Graham showing the winds were out of the NE indicating that the low in the Gulf was developing.

We did not have school Wednesday or Thursday. Despite the warning of freezing rain, sleet and snow, obviously the first two days was just freezing rain. Both nights it would drop enough for freezing rain and during the day rain as I recall seeing the ice from leaves and trees dropping as it melted. The snow that my cousins swore they saw were obviously just the lighter drops blowing in the light.

For whatever reason on Friday we did have school despite the threat of rain changing to snow. I guess after a couple of days parents got tired of having children being basically restricted to the indoor due to the cold and ice.

On Friday around noon I noticed that sleet was mixing in the rain. At 2:30 or so we were in religion class. I was looking out the window when I saw the first flake that fluttered slightly slower than the rain. Then another. Of course at first it was mostly rain. But after a few more minutes the transition continued and more flakes mixed in. The magic blue line was passing over us. It took a couple of minutes for my classmate Doug to finally see the snow. But he yelled it is snowing and everyone went to the windows.

Baton Rouge ended up with an inch or so, New Orleans 0.1, and McComb 0.5. My dad took us riding in the snow and we stopped for icecream.

Just a month later we had our second snow. It was not predicted, I do not think. I recall a windy wet front moving through around lunchtime. All I know is that I awoke the next morning and it was snowing. Apparently we had about an inch of sleet first and then the snow. On this event we had 2.0., New Orleans 1.0, and McComb 2.0 inches.

[knoxtnhorn]

For what it's worth, our local meteorologist (Knoxville) stated that next Friday's low will be 11 degrees. I'm not sure what model he's using but he's not a sensationalist. It would figure that we might get some crazy weather at the beginning of a 3-day weekend (teacher; MLK Day on the 21st).

[Kennethb]

Just had fro pa here in Baton Rouge. Big blue line with arrows passed by. Took the warm muggies out in one gust.

Too raining again after about 2 days of no rain.

[vbhoutex]

Today marks the 40th anniversary, a Friday then too, of an interesting winter weather event in South Louisiana. Here in Baton Rouge it snowed.

Keep in mind this was before internet, Weather Channel and cable TV. We only had 2 TV stations and the news and weather was only broadcast at noon, 6, and 10. None of the morning shows, 4, 5, 9 o’clock broadcasts.

On Tuesday afternoon, at school I noticed the water dripping from the broken gutter had ice, showing it was below freezing.

At home on the weather we were advised that we were under a Winter Storm Warning. I recall Mike Graham showing the winds were out of the NE indicating that the low in the Gulf was developing.

We did not have school Wednesday or Thursday. Despite the warning of freezing rain, sleet and snow, obviously the first two days was just freezing rain. Both nights it would drop enough for freezing rain and during the day rain as I recall seeing the ice from leaves and trees dropping as it melted. The snow that my cousins swore they saw were obviously just the lighter drops blowing in the light.

For whatever reason on Friday we did have school despite the threat of rain changing to snow. I guess after a couple of days parents got tired of having children being basically restricted to the indoor due to the cold and ice.

On Friday around noon I noticed that sleet was mixing in the rain. At 2:30 or so we were in religion class. I was looking out the window when I saw the first flake that fluttered slightly slower than the rain. Then another. Of course at first it was mostly rain. But after a few more minutes the transition continued and more flakes mixed in. The magic blue line was passing over us. It took a couple of minutes for my classmate Doug to finally see the snow. But he yelled it is snowing and everyone went to the windows.

Baton Rouge ended up with an inch or so, New Orleans 0.1, and McComb 0.5. My dad took us riding in the snow and we stopped for icecream.

Just a month later we had our second snow. It was not predicted, I do not think. I recall a windy wet front moving through around lunchtime. All I know is that I awoke the next morning and it was snowing. Apparently we had about an inch of sleet first and then the snow. On this event we had 2.0., New Orleans 1.0, and McComb 2.0 inches.

Ah, the memories of the Winter of '73. 3 measurable snows here in Houston. 1st was Jan. 12, 2nd was Feb. 9 and 3rd was Feb. 16. Don't remember which one it was, but some areas had as much as 4"(prob. unofficial). What a Winter that was.
I have no idea what the pattern was like then as opposed to what we are seeing now so I am not about to make a comparison. Suffice it to say the next several weeks could be very interesting based on what we are seeing at this point in time.

[Kennethb]

We missed out on the third event here in Baton Rouge. I recall being under a Winter Storm Watch but all we got was some high cirrus clouds.

[Ntxw]

I did a re-analysis of Jan and Feb 1973 and indeed for SE Tx/SW La it was interesting at the least. There was no arctic outbreak though it was very blocky and the strong El Nino brought a train of powerful lows from SoCal and just cold enough. If we want to see that kind of a pattern we need split flow near Alaska and strong block (high pressure) over Hudson Bay or Davis Strait

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion from the Birmingham NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUCKED ME IN. TODAY`S
RUN...AS WELL AS TODAY`S GFS AND NAM...NOW SHOW THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL STATES
ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DICKENS OF A TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING THE TIME THIS UPPER LOW IS
NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA). NO NEED TO
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH BY THAT TIME SO THAT ANY PRECIP
THAT COMES THE END OF THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IT IS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL WE CAN FAIRLY SAFELY SAY THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. AFTER THAT...WE SIT AND WAIT
AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH DIRECTION THE REALLY COLD AIR GOES
AFTER IT DROPS INTO THE U.S. FROM CANADA.