Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a waste. I'd rather it be 80

its looking likely next week could be the coldest overall week of the winter

I feel like if we can't get something more than a flake we should just move on to spring

Screw that, I’ll take 10 mire weeks of cold and dry over 75 plus

Absolutely

[Ralph's Weather]

Got some sleet and then very light flurries. Only minor accumulations of sleet on roofs.

[Cerlin]

I take these events that have overperformed for DFW as good signs for the future for February. The models have been wrong continuously so I’m putting no faith in them for significant weather more than 3 days out.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I take these events that have overperformed for DFW as good signs for the future for February. The models have been wrong continuously so I’m putting no faith in them for significant weather more than 3 days out.

I think even 3 days is pushing it right now. There has continually been significant busts even at 24 hours.

[orangeblood]

Technically, parts of DFW have now seen 2 winter wx events (sad but true) but things look bleak for any significant event in the near future based on the 00z runs.

Don't sleep on next week...still a lot to work out upstream and this is an extreme anomalous cold outbreak for NA. That is typically a recipe for surprises!!

[Haris]

NWS San Antonio/Austin received reports of sleet in Williamson, Bexar and Comal Counties during the past hour. Melting on contact though.

There were multiple reports of sleet and even a few light snow flurries around the Austin metro area between 2-3 am. Sadly, I saw none of it as I was in dreamland. I was dreaming of a world where the GFS and Euro showed a Texas snowstorm three days out.

I was in snowstorm dreamland as well at that time.
Sadly, I cannot confirm, nor deny any of these reports.

I confirm. Had very heavy sleet! Sounded like a hail storm! Around 2am W Trav Co

[KatDaddy]

Getting reports of some sleet in NW Houston and areas to the N of town.

[SoupBone]

Getting reports of some sleet in NW Houston and areas to the N of town.

I can confirm! Pellet sized fun! No sticking.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

SW Montgomery County has some white roofs from moderate sleet showers.

[KatDaddy]

Just had a moderate sleet shower in downtown Houston at Discovery Green park.

[BigB0882]

The front has definitely rolled through Baton Rouge. Temps really dropping. The 6Z GFS doesn't even show us getting to freezing during the next 16 days, with maybe one exception. Even the 00Z, which showed those all time records in Chicago didn't look particularly cold for us down this way. I can't believe that the cold wouldn't force its way south. But then again, the GFS has been horrible with temps.

[wxman57]

Now that we've all experienced winter weather, let's move on to spring!

Precip ending down near Hobby Airport.

[harp]

The front has definitely rolled through Baton Rouge. Temps really dropping. The 6Z GFS doesn't even show us getting to freezing during the next 16 days, with maybe one exception. Even the 00Z, which showed those all time records in Chicago didn't look particularly cold for us down this way. I can't believe that the cold wouldn't force its way south. But then again, the GFS has been horrible with temps.

I didn't look at the 06Z GFS overnight, but the 0Z last evening had us here in SE La. very cold next week.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Now that we've all experienced winter weather, let's move on to spring!

Precip ending down near Hobby Airport.

Screw off Grinch

I'll take 10 more weeks of this and you'll like it.

[bubba hotep]

Technically, parts of DFW have now seen 2 winter wx events (sad but true) but things look bleak for any significant event in the near future based on the 00z runs.

Don't sleep on next week...still a lot to work out upstream and this is an extreme anomalous cold outbreak for NA. That is typically a recipe for surprises!!

I'm not, was just posting what the 00z models were showing. There are a number of disturbances in the NS flow but we need the TPV to relax enough to allow some amplification for even a weak system. Currently, the models are showing everything getting driven into Mexico. Even a slight relaxation could allow any one of those s/w to come out across Texaa. The FV3 showed that a couple of days ago when a s/w & vigorous jet streak timed up well with the lobes of the TPV. The models are struggling right now but, even so, they are the best thing we have. Pattern recognition, bias adjustment, tea leave reading can only get us so far.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The front has definitely rolled through Baton Rouge. Temps really dropping. The 6Z GFS doesn't even show us getting to freezing during the next 16 days, with maybe one exception. Even the 00Z, which showed those all time records in Chicago didn't look particularly cold for us down this way. I can't believe that the cold wouldn't force its way south. But then again, the GFS has been horrible with temps.

I didn't look at the 06Z GFS overnight, but the 0Z last evening had us here in SE La. very cold next week.

I looked at both runs and dont see where the GFS is showing anything close to being very cold next week for anybody along the gulf coast. Normal 30's and 40's for lows and highs 50's and 60's.

I now see what Harp is talking about, the new GFS. Both runs show a much colder scenario but that model has been beyond atrocious all winter. If that were to be believed we would have already been in a mini ice age and had several snow events over here this month. I wouldnt believe it if it was showing snow 6-12hrs out.

[harp]

Don't forget the Euro either. It is showing snow for our area. Who knows....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The front has definitely rolled through Baton Rouge. Temps really dropping. The 6Z GFS doesn't even show us getting to freezing during the next 16 days, with maybe one exception. Even the 00Z, which showed those all time records in Chicago didn't look particularly cold for us down this way. I can't believe that the cold wouldn't force its way south. But then again, the GFS has been horrible with temps.

I didn't look at the 06Z GFS overnight, but the 0Z last evening had us here in SE La. very cold next week.

It's because the TPV wraps all of the truly brutal cold air underneath it. It's not an actualy large HP that is wide, sprawling across Canada. Actually, MLSP pressures may be surprisingly low.

[wxman57]

Less moisture in the cold air across Texas next Wednesday (12Z GFS) = dry cold. Florida panhandle could see a mix of rain and sleet like we saw across Houston this morning.

[Lagreeneyes03]

The front has definitely rolled through Baton Rouge. Temps really dropping. The 6Z GFS doesn't even show us getting to freezing during the next 16 days, with maybe one exception. Even the 00Z, which showed those all time records in Chicago didn't look particularly cold for us down this way. I can't believe that the cold wouldn't force its way south. But then again, the GFS has been horrible with temps.

I didn't look at the 06Z GFS overnight, but the 0Z last evening had us here in SE La. very cold next week.

It's because the TPV wraps all of the truly brutal cold air underneath it. It's not an actualy large HP that is wide, sprawling across Canada. Actually, MLSP pressures may be surprisingly low.

This is the first time I've seen "TPV" be mentioned so much, can someone explain exactly what is it and how does it affect NTX weather?