Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

CMC is not as crazy like the GFS (how often can you say this?) but follows the same story. It's actually been trending bigger from prior runs with the P-Day storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

For the record, as of 11am, the 12z nam is up to 5 degrees too warm. Currently sitting at 31 in Dallas, forecast to be 36 at this time

[Ntxw]

12z UKmet is a big snow storm for all of Texas. 10:1 ratios snow maps doesn't depict totals well given profile but it's what we got. Gets temps to 0 and below.

[dhweather]

Hopefully this is wrong, it would cause severe damage to plumbing and pipes across a large part of Texas.

10FEB2021 12Z GFS Meteogram

[PTrackerLA]

12z UKMET - let it SNOW

[Iceresistance]

CMC is not as crazy like the GFS (how often can you say this?) but follows the same story. It's actually been trending bigger from prior runs with the P-Day storm.

I have the GIFs here



24-hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Ralph's Weather]

CMC is not as crazy like the GFS (how often can you say this?) but follows the same story. It's actually been trending bigger from prior runs with the P-Day storm.

I have the GIFs here

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh78-210.gif

24-hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gdps-2021021012.snku_024h.us_sc.gif

By this weekend we will have to start really looking at the midweek system could really add a finishing blow to this whole event.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Is the Euro model the only one that isn’t showing extreme cold/heavy snow?

[Ntxw]

Is the Euro model the only one that isn’t showing extreme cold/heavy snow?

Last night's Euro run went to the extreme solutions after the warm unrealistic runs it had but has all but given up on that idea. It will start rolling in the next hour and my guess is probably something crazy like the rest of them.

[Ntxw]

Sprawling High pressure dome sitting over NW Canada is near 1058-1060. It's on the move southward and will end every kind of winter drought we've all had. Nothing but barbed wire, blue norther of blue northers.

[Haris]

Ntxw, how much do you think we get mixing across Central areas of the state? There seems to be a split with one camp showing sleet and ice and others like cmc showing all snow.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, how much do you think we get mixing across Central areas of the state? There seems to be a split with one camp showing sleet and ice and others like cmc showing all snow.

For the President's Day storm? I wouldn't worry about that right now too much, we've got a lot of runs to work that out. The surface is going to be wicked cold for everyone, but the upper 850mb temps is likely the issue causing the mixing since the cold air is shallow initially but that could change.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has gone Nuclear Mode again!



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



12z GFS-Para is also extremely Aggressive



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles up to 246 hours (10 days out)



Ensemble Snowfall



Mean Snowfall (8-9 inches in Central Oklahoma & 6-9 inches in DFW)

[rwfromkansas]

My wife's family is getting snow in Abilene. They just texted her photos. Appears to be snow, not sleet.

[Ntxw]

DFW is still hovering 30F with just a few more hours of warming left.

[Iceresistance]

DFW is still hovering 30F with just a few more hours of warming left.

Currently 20°F at my house . . .

[TropicalTundra]

My wife's family is getting snow in Abilene. They just texted her photos. Appears to be snow, not sleet.

It is? Don't see anything on radar. It probably is snow since it's been in the 20's all day there.

[Ralph's Weather]

Is the Euro model the only one that isn’t showing extreme cold/heavy snow?

Canadian is the low outlier.

[gpsnowman]

DFW is still hovering 30F with just a few more hours of warming left.

Yeah the 34 I saw this morning is in jeopardy. No surprise. As Bubba alluded to earlier, anything that falls from here on out will be frozen or freeze quickly. Clouds are thickening and a little fog is rolling in currently.