Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

You are correct. Different setup. The Christmas Eve storm entered the US in the Pacific NW and dived S just W of the Great Basin into Northern MX. This storm is coming in off the Pacific into SO CA. At least now we can now 'see' the players on CONUS WV Imagery...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[Ntxw]

Yeah that storm we waited to see how far south it dived, this storm seems to be when does it make a turn north lol lets hope it takes it's time turning at least if you're wanting winter weather

[wxman57]

Here's the latest raw GFS data for DFW. As you can see, precip ends with temps above freezing. North of the Red River is where this storm will cause problems.

[msstateguy83]

I would have to respectfully disagree with that statement there should be SIGNIFICANT accumulations of snow & or ice across the tx panhandle area into west central, nw tx... maybe not dfw but parts of texas yes it will NOT be all north of the red river in my opinion..


edit: i would just have to say also that per the models it *COULD* be a close call for the dfw area depending on timing of the front


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[iorange55]

Here's the latest raw GFS data for DFW. As you can see, precip ends with temps above freezing. North of the Red River is where this storm will cause problems.

That's for DFW?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, that looks like an IAH image to me.

Here's the DFW image..

[msstateguy83]

lol yeah i just caught on to that myself half awake here lol yup that is houston

[wxman57]

I would have to respectfully disagree with that statement there should be SIGNIFICANT accumulations of snow & or ice across the tx panhandle area into west central, nw tx... maybe not dfw but parts of texas yes it will NOT be all north of the red river in my opinion..


edit: i would just have to say also that per the models it *COULD* be a close call for the dfw area depending on timing of the front


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Of course there will be problems in the TX Panhandle. But there is nothing to indicate that ice on roadways or power lines will be a problem south of the Red River. At worst, there could be a dusting of light snow south of the Red River that would stick only to the grass and elevated surfaces. For the Dallas area, this will be more of a curiosity than a problem.

[iorange55]

Thank you EWG! I need to bookmark that site. Interesting to look at.

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove thoughts in the Houston Examiner last night...

Discussion
(Relevant Graphics Below The Text)

Compared to what may happen to us "down the road", weather could be considered to be near-excellent in the Houston metro today. Bright sunshine, milder temperatures and low humidity will mean ideal conditions for getting an exercising walk or playing some rounds of golf.

This is January, however, and many locations in the U.S. are about to receive a stark reminder that the calendar is still saying "the middle of winter". Yet another huge storm is slamming into California, and there is a reasonable chance that the Golden State could see strong to severe thunderstorms from this system (with snow in the higher elevations). Moving across the Intermountain Region, the disturbance will become disorganized. That is, however, until lee cyclogenesis creates renewed life for the low pressure center near Roswell NM on Wednesday night. As of now, the storm track looks to be just above the Dallas-Fort Worth TX and Shreveport LA metro areas on Thursday night.

This set-up favors a severe weather episode in C, E TX.....LA.....MS during the January 28 - 29 time frame. Further north, with a bitter cold cAk domain poised over ON and QB, the drainage of Arctic values undercutting a moist tropical regime will create a variety of wintry conditions. Parts of OK and N AR into the Tennessee Valley and lower Appalachia may be prone to ice or glazing, and I would not be surprised to see a zone of moderate to heavy snow (with gusty winds) target the Mid-South and Eastern Seaboard. The latter region is in great danger due to the fact that computer models often have a rightward bias in handling storm tracks. Plus, mind-numbing cold will be a part of the package as an anticyclone in eastern Canada holds the Arctic values in place.

I also have concerns for the first week of February, which will likely see a similar synoptic setting but with a much larger storm threat. Teleconnections on this feature favor a path through the central Gulf of Mexico and up along the East Coast. Note the vigorous Kelvin wave in the western/central Pacific Ocean, which will help build 500MB heights in the -EPO and +PNA positions in about 8 to 10 days.

The party, it appears, is just getting started!

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ry-26-2010

[wxman57]

lol yeah i just caught on to that myself half awake here lol yup that is houston

Dallas, Houston, what's the difference? I fixed the link.

[msstateguy83]

so i guess oun just issued a winter storm watch for sps for a light dusting of snow no travel problems???

[Weatherdude20]

We will respectfully let Wxman57 express his forecast while we have our own.

Personally, I think its obvious that for Oklahoma and Texas this is a MAJOR Winter Storm.

For the panhandle you could see 6-12 inches of snow and a glaze of ice coming first.

Oklahoma city will start briefly, as rain then turn to a sleet freezing rain mix, then turn to heavy snow, accumulations here will be around 6 inches.

Red River northward will seen rain for the first have of the day, then freezing rain for an extended period then turning to all snow or a strong wintry mix before its over. They well see 2-4 inches of snow.

DFW depending on how much and WHEN the cold air mass comes to the metroplex, will help to define how much if any, winter precip we will get. I belive we will see an inch of rain, possibly thunderstorms, and then as the polar front comes through temps rapidly dropping with winter precip bands working through. They will be frezzing rain, and transition to all snow, expect light ice accumulation, a dusting of snow, and know that it could be a foot higher if the cold air was in place just a couple hours earlier. BUT, models depict this precip that comes with the cold front will be, a HEAVY squall line Associated with the cold air, so if temps coop. heavy winter precip will cause accumulations.

Please note temps will dip 4-8 degress below freezing, FREEZING, all the moisture, and precip that fell in the whole evnt icing bridges, and any moisture along roads, streets, ditches, ect ect.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

Just a couple of FYI points. The 12Z will be the new higher res upgraded ECMWF. Also, there are some housekeeping issues in the data ingest for the 12Z runs...

NOUS42 KWNO 261334
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1330Z TUE JAN 26 2010 ...UPDATED...
NCEP 12Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME WITH GOOD DATA
COVERAGE. INCLUDED WERE...13 AK/31 CANADIAN/72 CONUS/9
MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FOR THE NAM.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
BET/70219 - DELETED SPURIOUS SUPER 117-114MB.
GRB/72645 - LATE REPORT; NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
LAP/76405 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.
VHA/76743 - GROUND EQ FAILURE...10142.
ZBZ/78583 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
FFR/78897 - SHORT REPORT TO 759MB.
...UPDATED TO INCLUDE...
ADDITIONALLY NCEP RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS IN SUPPORT OF THE
WINTER STORM RECON PROGRAM.
...20 REPORTS FROM THE USAF C-130 OUT OF ANC. 10 F/L AND 10
DROPSONDES.
...11 REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV BTW HNL-ANC. ALL REPORTS
WERE DROPSONDES.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[msstateguy83]

we are getting down to the serious business now, we NEED to quit arguing about what could, might happen & look CLOSELY at all the details outa of the runs this am, see if there is any sudden changes with respect to this system... the runs over the next 12 hours or so should be key to see if this system moves slightly further s or n...

[Weatherdude20]

we are getting down to the serious business now, we NEED to quit arguing about what could, might happen & look CLOSELY at all the details outa of the runs this am, see if there is any sudden changes with respect to this system... the runs over the next 12 hours or so should be key to see if this system moves slightly further s or n...

Agree

[wxman57]

so i guess oun just issued a winter storm watch for sps for a light dusting of snow no travel problems???

Wichita Falls is right near the boundary of heavier snow. I could see an inch or so there as a fair possibility. A watch is quite warranted.

For Dallas, there's nothing to indicate that rain will change to freezing rain there. Projected vertical profiles indicate that rain could rapidly change to snow as the precip ends, but the moisture will be quite limited by then.

[Weatherdude20]

so i guess oun just issued a winter storm watch for sps for a light dusting of snow no travel problems???

Wichita Falls is right near the boundary of heavier snow. I could see an inch or so there as a fair possibility. A watch is quite warranted.

Definatly more than in inch mark my words.

[wxman57]

so i guess oun just issued a winter storm watch for sps for a light dusting of snow no travel problems???

Wichita Falls is right near the boundary of heavier snow. I could see an inch or so there as a fair possibility. A watch is quite warranted.

Definatly more than in inch mark my words.

Current models have 2-4" just across the Red River a county or two to the north of Wichita Falls, so more than in inch is certainly possible. But I wouldn't forecast 2-4" at SPS yet.

[msstateguy83]

i may NOT be an official meteorologist yet iam going to school BUT whats your reasoning to issue A WINTER STORM WATCH then for ONE INCH OF SNOW?!? are you thinking that criteria for ice??? becouse honestly i think we should all know this THAT WOULD BE A WINTER WX ADVISORY... FOR A INCH OR SO OF SNOW?? COME ON.....