Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Tireman4]

I don't want to take away from the wintery weather discussion but it appears this could be a pretty serious tornado threat in the far SE parts of TX and areas along the gulf coast
https://i.imgur.com/FSdNXIR.gif

It will be a bumpy ride down here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Holding steady at 39 and steady rain. By radar it appears the snow line is around Vernon/Electra. We’ll see..

[Iceresistance]

Holding steady at 39 and steady rain. By radar it appears the snow line is around Vernon/Electra. We’ll see..

It's roughly around US-81 in Oklahoma

[snowballzzz]

Looks like it’s shaping up to play out exactly as the models have shown for several days now. Much needed (cold) rain for most of NTX and some decent snow for western and central OK (where the temps stay at freezing or hover right around freezing). I’m curious to see what the next few weeks bring as our winter window winds down.

[losf1981]

Temps refusing to drop in central Oklahoma. Haven’t even gotten below 40 here in Norman and we were supposed to be well on our way to 35 by now.

I am still trying to be optimistic but there are just so many variables with this system. Some of us may face disappointment based off the hype but others may get a pleasant surprise out of it. We just have to wait and see.

looks like a big bust for WF this go round. Nice to have some rain though.

[Tireman4]

NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
Strong and severe storms expected today along with locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3" with isolated areas of 4+ inches possible. Stay weather aware today and make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.
#TXwx #HOUwx #BCSwx #GLSwx

[losf1981]

Holding steady at 39 and steady rain. By radar it appears the snow line is around Vernon/Electra. We’ll see..

I don't see that freeze line moving much further east my friend. Seen this many times before.

[Iceresistance]

ODOT cameras showing snow in Lawton, OK

[bubba hotep]

[DW5522]

Little wave of sleet in northern Grayson county.

[Ntxw]

WF and the Red River valley will have to wait until the trowel feature develops this afternoon for column cooling.

Big front still on models for this weekend. Then it will be front after front. All of next week will be cold.

[orangeblood]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnOFFSoX0AEypWZ?format=jpg&name=medium

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023012412/040/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023012412/040/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Latest guidance trending back south with the wrap around band coming thru around sunset. I-20 and North should see a decent show out of this!!!

[orangeblood]

WF and the Red River valley will have to wait until the trowel feature develops this afternoon for column cooling.

Big front still on models for this weekend. Then it will be front after front. All of next week will be cold.

Late Monday to Wednesday next week looks it has a lot of potential for wintry precip with the system digging into the southwest/Arctic Front oozing south

Models continue to erode the initial weekend front out ahead of the system that swings thru early next week...we all know this in highly unlikely, you think the front is eroding with 500 mb flow out of the Arctic like this ?? - doubtful

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snowing huge flakes in WF

[losf1981]

Snowing huge flakes in WF

not where I'm at!

[txtwister78]

Going to be interesting across parts of Oklahoma in real-time regarding accumulations/model verification as some of the latest short-range guidance continues to suppress accumulation totals (rain/snow mix as opposed to all snow event)

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snowing huge flakes in WF

not where I'm at!

Seems to be more of the N side of town where I’m currently at. It’s not snowing at my parents place either.

[Tireman4]

Tony Lyza
@tlyzawx
The Houston metro is going to be in an extremely precarious position relative to the warm front this afternoon. Any mature storm moving thru there in the warm sector is going to have a remarkable CAPE/shear space to work with.

[Brent]

Already snowing in OKC apparently. Ahead of schedule if that holds up

[orangeblood]

Going to be interesting across parts of Oklahoma in real-time regarding accumulations/model verification as some of the latest short-range guidance continues to suppress accumulation totals (rain/snow mix as opposed to all snow event)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674565200/1674626400-LPO2KJgI0So.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-fv3-conus/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674561600/1674644400-K6hvjEJAakg.png

FWIW, I've noticed over the years the FV3 is one of the worst winter short range models we have