Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Already snowing in OKC apparently. Ahead of schedule if that holds up

I found this from a ODOT camera at OK-74 and Kilpatrick Turnpike


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-24-8.55.29-AM.png

[Yukon Cornelius]

The ground and rooftops are quickly turning white and getting covered with how hard it’s snowing. I definitely wasn’t expecting this, or this early.

[txtwister78]

Going to be interesting across parts of Oklahoma in real-time regarding accumulations/model verification as some of the latest short-range guidance continues to suppress accumulation totals (rain/snow mix as opposed to all snow event)

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674565200/1674626400-LPO2KJgI0So.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-fv3-conus/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674561600/1674644400-K6hvjEJAakg.png

FWIW, I've noticed over the years the FV3 is one of the worst winter short range models we have

HRRR also had runs showing it (latest run a little further north). ARW had 12-13 inches in its 0z run and now has 4-6 around Central Ok. NBM has 2-3 inches. More about verification now to see who had the better handle on a dynamic event that quite honestly could go either way accumulation wise. We shall see.

[orangeblood]

The ground and rooftops are quickly turning white and getting covered with how hard it’s snowing. I definitely wasn’t expecting this, or this early.

Yep, HRRR is playing catchup to top down cooling...looks like moderate/heavy snow in downtown Wichita according to webcams

[Yukon Cornelius]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Snow looks very heavy west of WF on radar.

It's snowing in areas east of the 850 low. Thats a good sign. Models were showing only snow for most North and to the west of the low. Possible more will see snow than predicted.

[bubba hotep]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/cwB6wvL/8-C19-FE1-A-E26-E-4519-862-E-4724-D48-B9-CCD.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMnJXCK/76-F88685-A4-EF-40-EB-9-A34-6-A19941-C2700.jpg [/url]

Awesome!

[Iceresistance]

Snow is starting to mix in at my location

[txtwister78]

Localized flash flooding potential along with a severe weather threat for the Houston metro later today.

[Tireman4]

Meanwhile, to your neighbors south of you...



Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
50m
While #Houston is not explicitly included in the highest tornado threat - it is worth mentioning that models have pushed the TOR potential slightly to the north

Pinpointing a difference of 15-20 miles is nearly impossible - but everyone should be prepared regardless #khou11

[gpsnowman]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/cwB6wvL/8-C19-FE1-A-E26-E-4519-862-E-4724-D48-B9-CCD.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMnJXCK/76-F88685-A4-EF-40-EB-9-A34-6-A19941-C2700.jpg [/url]

That is fantastic. Hope to see that this evening here.

[orangeblood]

Snow looks very heavy west of WF on radar.

It's snowing in areas east of the 850 low. Thats a good sign. Models were showing only snow for most North and to the west of the low. Possible more will see snow than predicted.

Yep, models aren't current with this system at all.... accumulations starting way sooner than expected

check out the downtown WF webcam
https://www.texomashomepage.com/weather/towercam/

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Already snowing in OKC apparently. Ahead of schedule if that holds up

I’m in Norman for a work conference and no snow yet on this side of okc, but a mix is working in with some big drops as of 9:43

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS with a right hook into Collin County!

[gpsnowman]

Snow looks very heavy west of WF on radar.

It's snowing in areas east of the 850 low. Thats a good sign. Models were showing only snow for most North and to the west of the low. Possible more will see snow than predicted.

Yep, models aren't current with this system at all.... accumulations starting way sooner than expected

check out the downtown WF webcam
https://www.texomashomepage.com/weather/towercam/

Man that snow is coming down!!! And only two hours away from here.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like temps are cooling faster out west than modeled. Decatur is going to be several degrees cooler at 16z than the 14z HRRR showed. Also, it looks like temps are running a degree or two cooler across DFW.

[rwfromkansas]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/cwB6wvL/8-C19-FE1-A-E26-E-4519-862-E-4724-D48-B9-CCD.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMnJXCK/76-F88685-A4-EF-40-EB-9-A34-6-A19941-C2700.jpg [/url]

WOW. That is a nice surprise.

[txtwister78]

Huge accumulation differences/trends with the GFS from 0z to 12z today though (ICON as well). Seems to be the trend with several models regardless of preference. Appears heavier precip band is setting up closer to the river.

[Haris]

Ratios will not be 10:1 but I do think trowal will overperform and drop 1-3” N of 120 and near 5-6” along the River, that’s my view. Hopefully we can all cash in as much as possible

[Iceresistance]

The snow is really coming down now, 34°F