Texas Winter 2022-2023

[rwfromkansas]

The Surface analysis seems to show the surface low just east of the big bend. If that's true, it's way far west to still be snowing this far east up in WF. Am I wrong? It looks like the upper low is just to the west a bit but making sure.

[SnowintheFalls]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/cwB6wvL/8-C19-FE1-A-E26-E-4519-862-E-4724-D48-B9-CCD.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMnJXCK/76-F88685-A4-EF-40-EB-9-A34-6-A19941-C2700.jpg [/url]

I can affirm snow is coming down hard and heavy here in Burkburnett. It's accumulating fast here.

[bubba hotep]

NWS Fort Worth
@NWSFortWorth
·
14m
9:57 AM: Widespread rainfall is currently falling across North and Central TX. We are beginning to get a few reports of sleet northwest of the DFW Metro. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expected later this morning into this afternoon across North Texas.

[txtwister78]

Tornado watch coming for Houston metro/upper TX coast per SPC.

[bubba hotep]

NWS Lubbock
@NWSLubbock
Heavy and wet❄️continues to stack up this morning! Here's a photo from our weather observer in Roaring Springs where 6" was measured at 830am. #txwx #lubwx

[losf1981]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/cwB6wvL/8-C19-FE1-A-E26-E-4519-862-E-4724-D48-B9-CCD.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gMnJXCK/76-F88685-A4-EF-40-EB-9-A34-6-A19941-C2700.jpg [/url]

I can affirm snow is coming down hard and heavy here in Burkburnett. It's accumulating fast here.

you guys get all the weather in Burk!

[gboudx]

Tornado watch coming for Houston metro/upper TX coast per SPC.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0093.gif

jeff has sent 2 or 3 emails for SETX. Here's the latest:

Surface low pressure deepening near and to the north of Beeville TX will move ENE/NE across SE TX over the next several hours. Warm front extends from the surface low to north of Victoria and then ESE across southern Wharton into northern Brazoria and central Galveston County. Surface gradient continues to tighten over the area with frequent wind gusts of 30mph being observed. Winds have been gusting over 40mph this morning across the coastal waters including 46mph at the Buoy 20 miles east of Galveston and 41mph at the Brazos oil platform south of Matagorda County.

Warm sector air mass will continue to spread northward…possibly reaching the I-10 corridor from southern Austin County to Chambers County…along and south of this boundary the severe threat will be increasing over the next several hours as lift increases. Shear values are maximized in this area and damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible. With strong influx of western Gulf air mass quickly into the region temperatures have been able to warm to near 70 degrees over the Matagorda Bay region which is helping to increase surface based energy south of the warm front. There is nearly a 20 degree temperature spread across the warm from between northern Harris County and southern Wharton County.

Heavy rainfall will also be increasing with current cluster of strong thunderstorms from southern Colorado County to southern Austin County likely the beginning of a more sustained heavy rainfall threat along and just north of the warm front for the next several hours. This activity will likely move ENE/NE into Fort Bend, Waller, and Harris Counties over the next few hours. Street flooding will be possible under the heavier rainfall rates of 1-2 inches.

As the surface low moves across the region this afternoon, strong southerly winds will continue to increase with frequent gusts of 30-40mph expected over much of the region. Higher gusts of 45mph will be possible along and south of I-10.

And from earlier this morning:

Active weather will quickly unfold over the next several hours with multiple hazards
Severe weather…including all modes (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible
Heavy rainfall and street flooding will be possible.
Timing: 900am-500pm
Highest tornado and severe threat will be along and south of I-10…an isolated strong tornado is possible.
Powerful onshore winds of 35-45mph areawide will result in minor coastal flooding this afternoon
Wind advisory in effect for the entire area
Gale warning for all waters

Actions:
Have multiple ways to receive warnings today (enable cell phone emergency alerts)
Have a plan to react should a warning be issued for your area
For severe weather/tornado warnings:
Seek shelter in a sturdy well built structure on the lowest floor away from windows (interior closet or bathroom)
In office buildings/schools: shelter in an interior hallway away from windows or interior stairway. Do NOT shelter in areas with high vaulted ceilings (gyms), warehouses, ect.
Storms will be moving extremely fast, warning lead times will be short…act immediately if a warning is issued for your area.

Overview:
Highly impressive upper level storm system now over west Texas will bring numerous weather threats to Texas today. Strong lift is inducing pressure falls this morning over SC TX where a potent surface low will form and move ENE/NE across SE TX this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows “incredible” surface pressure falls on the order of 20mb in 6 hrs over our region today which will result in a very significant low level mass influx of deep moisture into the region. Current dewpoints are 58 at Palacios and 68 at Brownsville versus 39 at Livingston. As surface pressures tank, low level jet will quickly develop and transport mid and possibly upper 60 degree dewpoints from S TX to near the I-10 corridor this morning. Warm front looks to move through the coastal counties and at least into southern Wharton, Fort Bend and Harris with all areas along and south of this boundary likely primed for a robust severe weather potential.

Severe:
High resolution models continue to be aggressive with surface based instability developing over the southern portions of the area today and when combined with the “off the charts” shear in place, all severe weather modes are a concern. We shall see if the instability will be as great as the Hires data suggest, if so a fairly significant outbreak of severe weather including damaging tornadoes will be possible. Main focus of the severe threat will be along and south of I-10 including the metro Houston area. Supercell structures may evolve over the building warm sector late morning with an increasing tornado threat as low level winds remain backed out of the E/ESE and quickly veer to SW in the mid levels producing significant low level shear. Squall line quickly approaches from the west and sweeps across the region this afternoon…damaging winds will be likely with this line as 700mb jet punches in from the west.

SPC has nudged the 3 out of 5 risk area slightly northward overnight and this seems reasonable given the hires guidance showing upper 60 degree dewpoints reach into southern Harris by early afternoon.

Heavy Rain:
Radar is already showing an increase in showers and thunderstorms and this trend will continue into the day. Potential for cell training ahead of the main line yields a heavy rainfall risk near/along the warm front today. No adjustments have been made to the rainfall totals with widespread 1-3 inches likely and isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Given nearly saturated air column by midday, hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible. Street flooding continues to be the main threat.

Wind:
Impressive wind profiles will come to bear over the region for much of the day with surface winds quickly responding to the steep pressure falls. Sustained winds of 25-35mph with gusts of 40-45mph will be common over much of the area for much of the day. Power outages will be possible. Very strong winds just above the surface will be transported to the ground in showers and thunderstorms and gusts of 50-60mph will be possible.

Coastal/Marine:
Dangerous marine conditions are developing. Southerly winds will increase rapidly this morning into the 30-40kt range with gusts of 50kts. Seas rapidly build 10-15ft offshore Gulf waters and 6-9 ft inland bays. Strong surface force on the water surface will result in minor coastal flooding of low lying areas this afternoon along the Gulf beaches and in the bays. Winds and seas will be slow to subside tonight behind the cold front. Small craft should be in port and remain in port today.

[rwfromkansas]

Just saw video from a relative in Lubbock. Definitely it appears to have beat even the "best case" scenarios in the new weird NWS probability graphics. In fact the 1 in 10 chance was only 4 inches. Definitely more than that. It appears to be at least 5-6 inches and in Lubbock itself.

[TropicalTundra]

That snow line slowly inching it's way eastward. Abilene's probably going to changeover soon.

[jaguars_22]

Does this new snowpack that’s going to take place affect our chances in southern texas to be colder when the arctic outbreak comes? Do you guys think the cold will be dry again? The gfs yesterday was something that caught my eye if the precip can make it? Does anyone think we could see frozen precip chances?

[Gotwood]

I just need it to snow at some point today I bet my daughter 10 dollars that it would snow haha.

[rwfromkansas]

Lubbock relative reported 6 inches with NWS saying 5 there, so significant overperformance there and still snowing, though heavier bands starting to move east.

[Ntxw]

Lubbock relative reported 6 inches with NWS saying 5 there, so significant overperformance there and still snowing, though heavier bands starting to move east.

It helps to be 3200 feet up . Amarillo has underachieved so far today though, they've been dry of late.

[rwfromkansas]

Lubbock relative reported 6 inches with NWS saying 5 there, so significant overperformance there and still snowing, though heavier bands starting to move east.

It helps to be 3200 feet up . Amarillo has underachieved so far today though, they've been dry of late.

Yeah, and the caprock helps them as well. I just wish DFW was placed 50 miles northwest. Lol. Decatur NW gets the good stuff.

[Ntxw]

850s is a good proxy for snow/mix areas in this case. The northern burbs would likely be in a decent spot. Really want to the ULL to come out strong and drag as much qpf into that trowel feature.

[Iceresistance]

The ground outside is slowly turning white, the snow is really coming down

[Lagreeneyes03]

Looks like temps are cooling faster out west than modeled. Decatur is going to be several degrees cooler at 16z than the 14z HRRR showed. Also, it looks like temps are running a degree or two cooler across DFW.

Not in my neck of the woods, I'm next to the airport and it's still 42 degrees. Hasn't dropped much at all Only forecast to bottom out at 37, and then go back up after 10pm. I think DFW will bust.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1617928231059099648

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like temps are cooling faster out west than modeled. Decatur is going to be several degrees cooler at 16z than the 14z HRRR showed. Also, it looks like temps are running a degree or two cooler across DFW.

Not in my neck of the woods, I'm next to the airport and it's still 42 degrees. Hasn't dropped much at all Only forecast to bottom out at 37, and then go back up after 10pm. I think DFW will bust.

I'm still at 42 as well. Hasn't really dropped any, but not going up either.

[cycloneye]