Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

parts of iowa picked up over half a foot of snow yesterday with all that snow cover in place from there and across Midwest that should insure that our temps WILL FALL below frzing QUICKLY on thursday.

per the 12z gfs it has heavyer precip amounts down close to i-20 in the abilene area,
i have NOT looked over everything in detail yet but i would say a shift of some sort to the south, i DONT see the northward shift but maybe iam missing something?

edit: i just feel with the snow pack up north it should send temps down quickly once the front passes your area, iam not saying
this changes things for dfw metro just saying for any given area effected by this storm system.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[msstateguy83]

GFS 12Z 60-84 HR TIME FRAME.....

[Weatherdude20]

Thats around Fort Worth !

[CaptinCrunch]

Cold air still lagging behind, even if this shifted to the south I dont think DFW would see anything more than some light sleet followed by a dusting of snow 1/4" at most and most of that would be north of I-20

[iorange55]

Cold air still lagging behind, even if this shifted to the south I dont think DFW would see anything more than some light sleet followed by a dusting of snow 1/4" at most and most of that would be north of I-20

Let's hope the cold air sneaks in a little sooner as J.P said



"It could happen"

[wxman57]

per the 12z gfs it has heavier precip amounts down close to i-20 in the abilene area,
i have NOT looked over everything in detail yet but i would say a shift of some sort to the south, i DONT see the northward shift but maybe iam missing something?

What I'm looking at is the thickness packing and surface pressures being farther north with the 12Z GFS. The 12Z GFS is definitely slower with the upper trof axis and the cold air penetration into northeast Texas (i.e., D-FW area). Pressures are a good 4MB lower for the same time period with the 12Z GFS vs. the 06Z, and thicknesses are greater with the 12Z GFS.

Now that doesn't mean the 12Z GFS is better, just that it's different from earlier runs. Newer isn't always better with model data. The key will be the trend with future model runs.

[wxman57]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p24_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 4_072m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 4_084m.gif

Thats around Fort Worth !

Yes, it is, but that's heavy rain along and ahead of the cold front - not winter weather.

[srainhoutx]

Great point wxman57. I strongly suggest we keep this in mind when viewing the upgraded ECMWF today as well.

[msstateguy83]

exactly trends are everything next few runs we gotta see before we can really
say is this something or just one bad run. the timing of that front is everything
bottom line...

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z GFS raw data for DFW to compare with the 06Z run. Lots of precip, but in the above-freezing air along the front. Nothing indicated once temps drop to near freezing. And remember, those green columns indicate 3-hr precip over the 3 hours PRIOR to that valid time, not AT that valid time. In this case, temps would be warmer than the "valid time" when the precip is actually falling.

12Z GFS:


06Z GFS

[iorange55]

Notice that a lot of the precip comes at the end when the temp looks to be 35 if it fluctuates a little it could be a different outcome. Just worth watching I guess if it's just a few degrees away.

[wxman57]

Notice that a lot of the precip comes at the end when the temp looks to be 35 if it fluctuates a little it could be a different outcome. Just worth watching I guess if it's just a few degrees away.

See the note I added into my post above concerning the difference in precip timing and the temps on the graphic. The precip bars are 3-hr precip that occur prior to the temps at the valid times on the graph. Quite likely, the temp was still in the 40s when the heavier precip was actually falling, then the temperature dropped to 35 after the precip ends.

[Brent]

GFS 12Z 60-84 HR TIME FRAME.....

[Tireman4]

That is a lot of rain for the Houston area...unless I am missing something.

[southerngale]

:uarrow:
Come on folks. Give wxman57 a break. He's been forecasting in TX for 30+ years and has more degrees than you can shake a stick at. Everyone has the right to express opinions, but this is bordering on a long standing S2k policy about openly bashing our Pros that freely give of their time and effort to post and help educate as well as offer information that we would not otherwise have. Just some food for thought.

This.

Memo to all Texas winter wx thread posters ... take it from the voice of experience when I say that you should listen and learn from Wxman57. You may not like or even agree with what he says, but I cannot tell you the number of times I have seen him be dead-on accurate about developing weather situations be them winter or summer or whatever. As srainhoutx says, he's a long-time, seasoned pro. The man knows of which he writes/speaks.

As you saw from my interaction with him yesterday, there's nothing wrong with asking questions on WHY he thinks something or the WHY NOT questions ... but the moment you start to question his knowledge base or his forecasting prowess, I believe you've gone over the line.

This board used to have more pro mets on it but some of them quit being active. Why? Because they had to deal with the uneducated and less-educated masses questioning their abilities and criticizing their forecasting. So they figured "why should I bother with this?" These guys (and gals) can teach us a lot. There's nothing wrong with debating respectfully but lets not get carried away here or else we risk losing a very classy and patient S2K member like Wxman57.

Now back to the weather ...

And this.

I see that David already replied, but I wanted to chime in as well. Some of the comments I saw were definitely headed over the line. There's no doubt that there will be disagreements, but every one of you should learn and help/encourage each other. Nobody KNOWS exactly what's going to happen. Use the differences in opinion to explain why you think something will or won't happen. It's silly to get mad or be rude to someone who forecasts something you don't like. Whether they're right or wrong, the same weather will happen regardless. wxman57 offers his opinions and forecasts because he wants to. You can pay attention to them, or not. But don't be rude and mock them. I will tell you one thing... I can remember 2 times in the past 13 months or so that he forecast snow for us in SE TX, and both times, we got snow here in SE TX. (12/08 & 12/09). While I am disappointed when he chimes in and crushes my dreams of snow, I know that he is more than likely right. While no met is 100% accurate, you could learn a lot from him, and the other mets who post here.

[southerngale]

One other thing - I see a number of people here posting talking about the weather in their respective areas. However, their profiles have no identifying locations (city/state). If you're discussing weather in your area, could you please edit your profiles to include your location? I'm usually hanging out in "Talkin' Tropics" so I don't recognize a lot of the folks here.

Thanks!

No matter where you hang out, unless the member mentioned and you happen to remember where they're located, most of us don't know if you don't have your location listed in your profile. Quoting this for anyone who missed it several pages back. Please include your location in your profile.

Where do you mean, Brent? Snow is expected in parts of Texas, and where the guy who posted that lives (Wichita Falls). Do you not think it will snow there?

[vbhoutex]

Im new to Storm2k and this board

Welcome aboard! Chime right in.

[srainhoutx]

That is a lot of rain for the Houston area...unless I am missing something.

Updated QPF from HPC shows around 2 inches. Probably with the squall line and any home grown T Storms that will fire off ahead of the squall. We will see.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

[Tireman4]

Now back to the weather ...[/quote]
And this.

I see that David already replied, but I wanted to chime in as well. Some of the comments I saw were definitely headed over the line. There's no doubt that there will be disagreements, but every one of you should learn and help/encourage each other. Nobody KNOWS exactly what's going to happen. Use the differences in opinion to explain why you think something will or won't happen. It's silly to get mad or be rude to someone who forecasts something you don't like. Whether they're right or wrong, the same weather will happen regardless. wxman57 offers his opinions and forecasts because he wants to. You can pay attention to them, or not. But don't be rude and mock them. I will tell you one thing... I can remember 2 times in the past 13 months or so that he forecast snow for us in SE TX, and both times, we got snow here in SE TX. (12/08 & 12/09). While I am disappointed when he chimes in and crushes my dreams of snow, I know that he is more than likely right. While no met is 100% accurate, you could learn a lot from him, and the other mets who post here.[/quote]

I agree 100 percent. His views on Ike were spot on. He did say back in 12/09 that was best setup for snow he had ever seen ( on another channel). When he (Wxman 57) calls it, he will. I chide him because his a cyclist and I am a runner, but he is very well educated in weather.

[Ntxwx]

Im new to Storm2k and this board

Welcome aboard! Chime right in.

Thanks, can we go back to the weather now ? lol. . .