Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

GFS certainly is going to the other guidance a little east of them like what they were showing yesterday, deep trof entrenched in the eastern conus. It brings snow deep into Florida.

Still believe Monday's blizzard is Oklahoma's not Kansas. If we continue the nudge south, many of us would be happy. Storms like to travel on the edge of snow-lines (temp gradient)

[Texas Snowman]

Joe Bastardi:

@BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/kvqB5raSEp clients shown march 1956,1960.Cold pdo, warm amo, late to start winters that lasted well into March #deadgroundhog.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS certainly is going to the other guidance a little east of them like what they were showing yesterday, deep trof entrenched in the eastern conus. It brings snow deep into Florida.

Still believe Monday's blizzard is Oklahoma's not Kansas. If we continue the nudge south, many of us would be happy. Storms like travel on the edge of snow-lines (temp gradient)

Yep the GFS now looks a lot like yesterday's models. I'm interested in the 0z CMC and Euro tonight to see if they continue to have the colder temperatures further west into Texas.

[Ntxw]

Joe Bastardi:

@BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/kvqB5raSEp clients shown march 1956,1960.Cold pdo, warm amo, late to start winters that lasted well into March #deadgroundhog.

I would throw 2010 into the mix. CPC super ensemble analogs top 2-3 dates are all 2010 with that -NAO/+PNA insanity.

[Ntxw]

0z Ukmet has a north Texas snow-show into Oklahoma. 994mb low over Texarkana

[South Texas Storms]

Wow the UKMET looks cold and maybe snow as far south as Porta!
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=072

Edit: Ntxw barely beat me to it!

[Ntxw]

Wow the UKMET looks cold and maybe snow as far south as Porta!
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=072

It's that crazy deformation band n/s. The system is so wound up it's throwing back incredible precip south and southeast!

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I see that! Crazy! Does the Ukie give CS some snow on this run? It looks like a close call here.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
Yeah I see that! Crazy! Does the Ukie give CS some snow on this run? It looks like a close call here.

Anything can happen, verbatim it would be flurries down that way or very nearby on that run. A nudge south more and who knows.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
Yeah I see that! Crazy! Does the Ukie give CS some snow on this run? It looks like a close call here.

Anything can happen, verbatim it would be flurries down that way or very nearby on that run. A nudge south more and who knows.

You think the models will keep shifting it more south? The trend is looking good right now for us.

[Ntxw]

You think the models will keep shifting it more south? The trend is looking good right now for us.

They have been, I don't know why they wouldn't! The Euro ensembles have led the way very well for the OP guidance to follow, lots of wiggle room south.

Check out Canadian, it's just as far south if not more, 991 over the metroplex. Difference with these two is they induce a coastal low coming up from south Texas

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has the low tracking very close to DFW! This new and improved model has been setting the trend lately and it continues on this run as well.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=072

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Now this is getting exciting! Looking forward to seeing those models verify!

The thought of you fellows digging out your ski trip winter wear (how many years ago was that last trip?) makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

Remember ya'll invited the Old Man...... now make sure you put out the welcoming mat.

[Ntxw]

0z CMC has the low tracking very close to DFW! This new and improved model has been setting the trend lately and it continues on this run as well.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... h=1&hh=072

0z cmc has a very slow moving deformation band coming into central Texas too. 30-40mph wind gusts to go with that. Would be a dream run for the I-35 corridor. Don't worry about precip amounts, all the systems this year have gotten wetter as we got closer.

[weatherguy425]

Hopefully this thing doesn't wait too long to really wrap up. Us in west Texas have been given the short straw more than once this winter...

[Ntxw]

Euro is following the CMC and Ukmet south. I can't say how so yet without the detailed maps but certainly more than it's 12z run.

Edit: It also has 50-60mph winds at least at 850mb behind the low, should translate about 10mph less on the ground or so

[somethingfunny]

Show me three consecutive Euro runs and some decent agreement from the other models, and I'm on board.

[Ntxw]

Show me three consecutive Euro runs and some decent agreement from the other models, and I'm on board.

I say 2 runs since time is running out, we are talking this Monday going into Tuesday

[somethingfunny]

Show me three consecutive Euro runs and some decent agreement from the other models, and I'm on board.

I say 2 runs since time is running out, we are talking this Monday going into Tuesday

I thought we were discussing the early March storm.

[Ntxw]

I thought we were discussing the early March storm.

No, the system is moving into the Pac NW as we speak it will be at our doorstep in 48-72 hours