Texas Winter 2022-2023

[gboudx]

https://i.imgur.com/y01B5vf.jpg

jeff sent an email to go along with this.

Tornado Watch has been issued for the southern portions of SE TX until 600pm.

Thunderstorms continue to increase in intensity and coverage over the area ahead of deepening surface low WNW of Victoria and advancing coastal warm front. Recent storm over Lavaca County indicated enhanced low level rotation as the cell crossed over the warm front. With increasing wind profiles into the mid afternoon hours and strong forcing arriving from the west, supercell thunderstorms with strong low level rotation will be possible along and south of the warm front. Expect the warm front to reach close to the I-10 corridor by early afternoon.

Isolated tornadoes…a couple could be strong, wind gusts to 70mph and large hail will be possible in the watch area.

[Cerlin]

It is puking snow.  https://twitter.com/weltywx/status/1617934652739825664

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temp has risen back up 2° and snow has turned back to rain.

[Gotwood]

The temps are pretty erratic right now on my weather station. I might need a recalibration or something one min it’s 42 the next it’s 38 now says 39 lol.

[orangeblood]

12Z CMC has another winter weather maker inside 7 days. GFS looks way off depicting a lake cutter into this Arctic Dome lol!



However, several GEFS members back this up showing Arctic boundary much further south

[snowballzzz]

Temp has been hovering around 38-39 here in Bowie this morning. Back and forth between sleet and rain. Waiting for some heavier precip to come through and hopefully drop some snow.

[harp]

Looking past this event, the GFS continues to waffle back and forth for the first week of February. Typical, I suppose.

[Iceresistance]

Everything is snow-covered, even the driveway and part of the road, the temperature is now 31°F

[txtwister78]

Looking past this event, the GFS continues to waffle back and forth for the first week of February. Typical, I suppose.

Ensembles still support core of the cold in the plains pushing south. Op's will continue to waffle as they typically do when dealing with these arctic airmasses (In particular those that are shallower in nature).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hopefully the Low really pulls in as much moisture as possible so our DFW folk can have some love on the backside of the low.

[Ntxw]

Looking past this event, the GFS continues to waffle back and forth for the first week of February. Typical, I suppose.

Few days ago models had DFW in the 50s and 60s for the late weekend. Now we're looking at a strong front coming through and 30s. The guidance especially OPs will throw every pot and pan in the kitchen to try and keep the lower level arctic dome in check because of upper flow. In reality as it gets closer may not end up the case.

[txtwister78]

Storm west of Katy needs to be watched. Riding just along the warm front boundary. Has some broad rotation with it for now but a monster, nonetheless.

[gboudx]

Storm west of Katy needs to be watched. Riding just along the warm front boundary. Has some broad rotation with it for now but a monster, nonetheless.

Another update from jeff.

Severe weather and heavy rainfall underway.

Conditions have quickly developed on the last hour with multiple tornado warnings and 1 confirmed tornado with damage near Eagle Lake and a funnel cloud at SH 249/Spring Cypress.

Tornadic supercells have quickly developed on the north side of the warm front with storms showing frequent and at times sustained long term rotation. Effectively any areas in the tornado watch will have a tornado and severe risk for the next 3-5 hours. Storm motions are very fast…40-50mph so warning lead times will be short.

Additionally, supercells have begun to train in a WSW to ENE fashion from Sealy to Cypress to Conroe. HCFCD gages show rainfall in the last 1.5 hours of 1.5-2.5 inches over NW Harris County with radar showing upwards of 3 inches near Sealy. Flash flooding will be possible as cell training continues along this corridor. Storms will eventually begin to move toward the E/ESE with time with heavy rainfall moving across all of the metro area early this afternoon.

Storms will quickly end with the cold front from west to east in the 300-500pm.

[orangeblood]

Wow, check out the MJO forecast differences b/w GFS and Euro…major implications beyond day 10





GFS showing potential big warmup into Phase 4 while Euro sinking into null, likely locking in cold for awhile

[txtwister78]

Storm west of Katy needs to be watched. Riding just along the warm front boundary. Has some broad rotation with it for now but a monster, nonetheless.

Tornado warning just issued for Katy and portions of western/NW areas of Houston metro.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, check out the MJO forecast differences b/w GFS and Euro…major implications beyond day 10

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF.png

GFS showing potential big warmup into Phase 4 with Euro sinking into null, likely locking in cold for awhile

Come on Euro.

[Edwards Limestone]

Fingers crossed for you north TX/OK guys! Hope it snows 6+ inches!!!

[bubba hotep]

HRRR still shows a period of wrap around snow for the northern burbs of DFW. Eastern OK and AR are going to cash in?

[South Texas Storms]

Storm west of Katy needs to be watched. Riding just along the warm front boundary. Has some broad rotation with it for now but a monster, nonetheless.

Tornado warning just issued for Katy and portions of western/NW areas of Houston metro.

Yeah I got concerned for a few mins there. Was in the middle of that tornado warning. Thankfully the rotation weakened and the warning was allowed to expire early.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Hopefully the Low really pulls in as much moisture as possible so our DFW folk can have some love on the backside of the low.

its too warm