Texas Winter 2010-2011

[gpsnowman]

Leading edge of polor air is right on the Kansas/OK border. 22 in Dodge City, 34 in Alva OK.

Man that is not that far away. Could it be that the front will enter North Texas earlier than predicted?

[Ntxw]

I'm starting to get a little excited......I have that magic feeling again. Still it's all going to be so close. When will that cold air plow through? that is the question.

Ah that usual gut feeling, always works! Winter is full of surprises! I'm starting to keep watch on the late week storm. It would be nice to have our southern friends involved. So much talk about the northern half and Oklahoma.

[orangeblood]

Tonight's GFS run is a fairly significant change over the past few days. Precip shield has shifted quite a bit further southeast and would more than likely cause Fort Worth NWS to put up winter storm watches up further southeast as well, including the metroplex. Looking at potential ice/sleet accumulations of greater than .25 inches possibly much more.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[CaptinCrunch]

Channel 8's Steve McCauley:

MONDAY NIGHT: Rain developing late, becoming widespread by 3 AM. Low: 36. Winds: N10-20, increasing 15-25 mph by daybreak.

TUESDAY: Rain likely early in the morning, changing to freezing rain and sleet for the rest of the morning and then a few flurries in the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is over with by 10 AM. with just wind-driven flurries after that. Temps falling into the lower 20s by late in the afternoon with wind chills around 5. Winds: N 25-35, G over 45 mph

I think Precip will be earlier and we'll be down to freezing by Midnight with FR rain by 3am Tuesday Morn.

[iorange55]

I'm starting to get a little excited......I have that magic feeling again. Still it's all going to be so close. When will that cold air plow through? that is the question.

Ah that usual gut feeling, always works! Winter is full of surprises! I'm starting to keep watch on the late week storm. It would be nice to have our southern friends involved. So much talk about the northern half and Oklahoma.

That is true. Mainly portastorm.

[Longhornmaniac8]

I'm starting to get a little excited......I have that magic feeling again. Still it's all going to be so close. When will that cold air plow through? that is the question.

Ah that usual gut feeling, always works! Winter is full of surprises! I'm starting to keep watch on the late week storm. It would be nice to have our southern friends involved. So much talk about the northern half and Oklahoma.

That is true. Mainly portastorm.

Yes, do it all for Portastorm. I'll let him play the pity card, and I'll reap the benefits.

At least he was here for the snow last year. The one time I go abroad for a semester, Austin gets its only significant snow in recent memory.

/pity party.

[orangeblood]

Channel 8's Steve McCauley:

MONDAY NIGHT: Rain developing late, becoming widespread by 3 AM. Low: 36. Winds: N10-20, increasing 15-25 mph by daybreak.

TUESDAY: Rain likely early in the morning, changing to freezing rain and sleet for the rest of the morning and then a few flurries in the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is over with by 10 AM. with just wind-driven flurries after that. Temps falling into the lower 20s by late in the afternoon with wind chills around 5. Winds: N 25-35, G over 45 mph

I think Precip will be earlier and we'll be down to freezing by Midnight with FR rain by 3am Tuesday Morn.

If that freezing line gets here before 3am, the DFW metroplex could be in for some serious trouble!!!

[iorange55]

If that freezing line gets here before 3am, the DFW metroplex could be in for some serious trouble!!!

Remind you of anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpxiCxO5k0g

[CaptinCrunch]

Channel 8's Steve McCauley:

MONDAY NIGHT: Rain developing late, becoming widespread by 3 AM. Low: 36. Winds: N10-20, increasing 15-25 mph by daybreak.

TUESDAY: Rain likely early in the morning, changing to freezing rain and sleet for the rest of the morning and then a few flurries in the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is over with by 10 AM. with just wind-driven flurries after that. Temps falling into the lower 20s by late in the afternoon with wind chills around 5. Winds: N 25-35, G over 45 mph

I think Precip will be earlier and we'll be down to freezing by Midnight with FR rain by 3am Tuesday Morn.

If that freezing line gets here before 3am, the DFW metroplex could be in for some serious trouble!!!

Will need to see when front passes through OKC, that will be a key to timing the front here. If through by 10am, then it would be in to th DFW area by 10pm Monday.

[katheria]

Channel 8's Steve McCauley:

MONDAY NIGHT: Rain developing late, becoming widespread by 3 AM. Low: 36. Winds: N10-20, increasing 15-25 mph by daybreak.

TUESDAY: Rain likely early in the morning, changing to freezing rain and sleet for the rest of the morning and then a few flurries in the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation is over with by 10 AM. with just wind-driven flurries after that. Temps falling into the lower 20s by late in the afternoon with wind chills around 5. Winds: N 25-35, G over 45 mph

I think Precip will be earlier and we'll be down to freezing by Midnight with FR rain by 3am Tuesday Morn.

If that freezing line gets here before 3am, the DFW metroplex could be in for some serious trouble!!!

sits back and watches...

id rather it come in early and get a day off than have to drive home in the stuff

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is yet again bullish with possibly light snow in SE and E Texas late week.

[iorange55]

0z GFS is yet again bullish with possibly light snow in SE and E Texas late week.

Not much for Portastorm though ;[

[DonWrk]

So I take it that us in the north Texas area will see just as much precip as other locations it's just the cold that we are lacking? So say if it was going to be freezing as soon as the rain came in, would we see as much snow/ice as places such as Tulsa?

[natlib]

Its a standoff in Lubbock!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Current temps:


-5 in Bismarck, ND

10 in Sioux Falls, SD

13 in North Platte, NE

23 in Topeka, KS

36 in OKC

28 in Dalhart, TX

45 in DFW

[Ntxw]

GFS keeps DFW at or below freezing roughly 90+ hours.

[iorange55]

GFS keeps DFW at or below freezing roughly 90+ hours.

Man I wonder if we'll have any pipe trouble or anything. I have never personally experienced any.

[MSUDawg]

If that freezing line gets here before 3am, the DFW metroplex could be in for some serious trouble!!!

Remind you of anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpxiCxO5k0g

Never seen that before oh wow.. choking on mouth full of water..trying not to explode on laptop..gasping for air.

Oh my...Oh WOW

Weather related... uneducated guess but just watching the model runs update...and observing temps...I just think the metro gets more than the little being described at this time..
and thats not a good thing I dont think..but what seems like is on the way.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is yet again bullish with possibly light snow in SE and E Texas late week.

How much could I maybe get in College Station? 1 inch?

[Brandon8181]

I've updated my forecast for those who are interested in. It hasn't changed much since I first posted it 7 days ago, but here it is..My forecast is for the SHERMAN/DENISON and surround AREAS.

Tonight mostly cloudy with low near 40
Tomorrow 100% chance of rain in the evening with a high near 52.
Tuesday things start to get interesting. High temperature will occur around midnight of 49 degrees falling to near 32 by 8 a.m. and then falling to 21 degrees by 5 p.m. I expecta 100% rain to change to freezing rain, and then sleet between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. with a gradual change over to snow from northwest to southeast by 10 a.m. Ice and snowfall accumulations will be great enough to impact travel conditions. Latest model data suggest things trending more to the southeast as orangeblood mentioned which will likely IMO prompt the NWS to issue winter weather watches for more of north central Texas. Im estimating accumulations of 2-5 inches inlcuding snow and ice. Areas to the northwest will see greater accumulations of 4-10 inches with areas to the southeast seeing 1 to 3 inches. Some isolated areas could see significant amounts of snow and ice. As the low pulls out there should be a bit of a wrap around effect as iorange55 indicated which should result in a small amount of additional snowfall and flurries into the early hours on Wednesday.
Wednesday will be very cold with a high near 19 degrees with snow flurries possible very early in the morning.
Thursday will continue very cold with an extreme cold low of only 9 degrees.

I also feel like Thu/Fri/Sat time frame will have an opportunity to see another winter weather event; I'll post my thoughts on that at a later time.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.