Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,

How often do the models come out per day? What I mean is, at what hourly intervals? Every 4 hours? Just curious.

I believe it is every 6 hours or so for the GFS. There are 4 runs per day.

Each model is different though and come out at different intervals and at different levels of regularity. The European, for instance, only runs twice a day.

[JenBayles]

ROCK, you can always add the heater later! It really isn't a big deal construction-wise - just to the wallet!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems like Channel 2 actually made a good (compared the NWS) forecast this afternoon. Though it is likely still way too warm, it is noteworthy that they at least seem to be thinking for themselves somewhat...

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Also, they continue to mention the threat of ice.

UPDATE: Actually DISREGARD this forecast and comment. I just watched a live broadcast from Channel 2 and he had clearing skies with highs of 48 and lows in the lower 30s for that period instead of highs in the low to mid 40s and possible ice like it showed earlier. Seems this online forecast hasn't been updated recently.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I have a below ground pool...I am thinking maybe I should drop the water level below the intacke lines and drain the sand filter after doing that. I am afraid if I turn it to circulate and we lose power, I don't want water in the lines or filter if we get down to the low teens or 20's here in NTX. Any comments from other pool owners. When you live out in the country the wind can blow and the power shut off. I'd rather be safe than sorry in the summer time.

[jasons2k]

Hey Rock, sorry I've been away but I see Jen already answered. Just let the pump run or reset the timers to run from say 3AM-10AM (or for the duration of the freeze).

[Tireman4]

Extremeweatherguy,

Do you subscribe to a service that provides model information? Or is it free to all those interested?

[JenBayles]

ETXHAMXYL, good point about power failure. Wonder if your pool manufacturer can give some guidance on that point? What you're suggesting makes sense to me. Otherwise, I wonder if the usual pipe-protection guidelines apply here with insulation-wrapping, etc.?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,

Do you subscribe to a service that provides model information? Or is it free to all those interested?

I do subscribe to a site that gives me a more in-depth look at the models, but you can get basic model info. for free at these locations:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Usually when I post images on storm2k with descriptions, they come from that first link above.

[Tireman4]

Thank you so much. I do appreciate it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just took a look at the 18z snow cover maps, and it is interesting to note that they are showing some light accumulations (of snow/sleet) along the TX gulf coast by Tuesday morning. They then show the accumulation actually sticking around through Wednesday (due to cold air not allowing much melt).

[double D]

Well the San Angelo NWS said that the models have not caught up to the strong 1050 high coming into the Conus and would only complicate things further when they do. They are also on board with DFW and are following the NAM as the GFS obviously doesn't have a good handle on the arctic front.

[Tireman4]

How much stock do you put into the 18z? Are you waiting for the Oz for validation?

[Extremeweatherguy]

How much stock do you put into the 18z? Are you waiting for the Oz for validation?

I put very little stock into it. However, it is interesting to see the return of the precipitation. I am going to wait for the 0z though before getting too excited. If precip. is still shown in the 0z run, then we may be onto a change in the model here.

In reality though, we probably will not have all the answers until this weekend.

[Tireman4]

Ok.

[double D]

The 18z NAM has much more precip on Sunday than the GFS across west Texas. The GFS has most of the precip in East Texas and ready to exit the state. That just shows you how much uncertainty there is for this weekend and beyond. We might not even know what happens until the event starts happening.

[Yankeegirl]

Flip flop flip flop....... and so it begins.... anyone got any Motrin? By the time this is all over I am going to have a migraine!

[ROCK]

Hey Rock, sorry I've been away but I see Jen already answered. Just let the pump run or reset the timers to run from say 3AM-10AM (or for the duration of the freeze).

thanks....just heard a little tidbit....Dollar General has plain jane sheets at a reasonable price. Cheaper than Wal-mart....Will have to take a look...

[JenBayles]

Flip flop flip flop....... and so it begins.... anyone got any Motrin? By the time this is all over I am going to have a migraine!

I think motrin ain't gonna cut it - more like high-power narcotics! We need a new "smiley" for flip-flopping models.

[TexasSam]

Just a few that fit what's going on:

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest from JB tonight is that he thinks there will be snow and ice problems "darn close" to the Gulf coast on Tuesday.

Just thought I would let you guys know.