Texas Winter 2010-2011

[katheria]

GFS keeps DFW at or below freezing roughly 90+ hours.

Man I wonder if we'll have any pipe trouble or anything. I have never personally experienced any.

i have before it was not fun either, woke up to 5" of water in the sunken living room

be sure to wrap outside pipes, we use insulation and then newspaper and then stuff a bucket full and turn over on top

any inside faucets that have pipes on outside wall, leave them running a tiny bit
and open cabinet doors under the sinks

[Ntxw]

I think by tomorrow posting winter storm watches would be a little late lol. Might as well go straight to advisories/warnings if warranted.

Latest message from FW

.UPDATE...
AFTER A BUSY AFTERNOON...A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ADVANCING INTO LOUISIANA AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OCCURRING OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ON THE KGRK RADAR...THE FRONT IS STILL
ADVANCING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE NOT QUITE PICKED UP ON ITS LOCATION BUT THE RUC IS NOW
PRETTY CLOSE WITH ITS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THERE INTO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FOG IN NORTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR IN OUR 4
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE THE FRONT DOES RETREAT A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THOSE COUNTIES AND DID REDUCE THE WORDING TO JUST
PATCHY FOG.

THE CHANGE IN THE FRONT/S POSITION ALSO AFFECTS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE WITH THE TEMPERATURES IS THE
RETURN OF STRATUS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF STRATUS AND
MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT/S
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A DELICATE BALANCE BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE STRATUS MOVES IN
AND CAPS THE TEMPERATURES.

LAST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS TO REMOVE POPS
FROM BUT DID LEAVE A 10 POP WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF A CAMERON TO OAKWOOD LINE.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL NOT RETREAT NORTH MUCH ON MONDAY.
EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE THE FRONTAL POSITION DISPLACED...AGREE THAT
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO FORCE THE FRONT TO RETREAT TOMORROW.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS RESULTS IN A NEARLY 10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FOR TOMORROW/S FORECASTED HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF. WE WILL BE REASSESSING TOMORROW/S TEMPERATURES AS
THE REMAINING 00Z DATA ARRIVES BUT WANTED TO INDICATE THE TREND
WITH THE UPDATE.

AND FINALLY...THE NEW MODEL DATA THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR
AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THUS
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS OR TO THE
WATCH. WE WILL BE ASSESSING THE REMAINING 00Z DATA AS IT ARRIVES
BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT.

[iorange55]

Just for laughs. GFS 276hr

[orangeblood]

And the trend continues, Canadian further southeast as well with more precip and an earlier arrival of the freezing line.

[Brandon8181]

And the trend continues, Canadian further southeast as well with more precip and an earlier arrival of the freezing line.

This could be significant....

[CaptinCrunch]

I think by tomorrow posting winter storm watches would be a little late lol. Might as well go straight to advisories/warnings if warranted.

With only a barbwire fence to stop the Arctic Air, I thing FTW NWS will scramble to update with watchs for DFW metro and that my go to a winter storm warning by 10pm monday night.

[Rgv20]

Weather.com going with a 40% chance of Snow showers for my area Thursday night..

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/78582?dayNum=4

[katheria]

I think by tomorrow posting winter storm watches would be a little late lol. Might as well go straight to advisories/warnings if warranted.

With only a barbwire fence to stop the Arctic Air, I thing FTW NWS will scramble to update with watchs for DFW metro and that my go to a winter storm warning by 10pm monday night.

remembers last febs storm...

1-4 inches ....ops..4-6. ops 6-8....

total my house 12.5"

[CaptinCrunch]

With the first cold front coming in faster a little stronger and pushed futher south than NWS forecasted it only makes since that the BIG heavy arctic air will do the same. I know most NWS AFD's are going with a blend of the models for it's updated forecast, but again last February showed just how much the models were wrong, and this looks to be heading in the same direction.

[South Texas Storms]

Does the 00z cmc show a lot of snow for Central and Eastern Texas or is all that precip. just a cold rain?

[Ntxw]

I have a feeling the Euro is going to be amplified (more digging) with the shortwave like the GFS. That certainly has been the trend tonight. Even on the RUC, things are changing for a more digging solution run after run.

[Ntxw]

Does the 00z cmc show a lot of snow for Central and Eastern Texas or is all that precip. just a cold rain?

It does (perhaps a bit north of HGX but darn close enough with the freezing line). Pretty much all of Texas except west Texas. It's still the most bullish model regarding precip. AUS gets a pretty good snowstorm out of it .

[Mr. Weather]

what time does the Euro come out

[CaptinCrunch]

I have a feeling the Euro is going to be amplified (more digging) with the shortwave like the GFS. That certainly has been the trend tonight. Even on the RUC, things are changing for a more digging solution run after run.

Better start shifting that frozen precip line a few more counties to the SE and get the sanding crews ready.

[Sambucol]

I have a feeling the Euro is going to be amplified (more digging) with the shortwave like the GFS. That certainly has been the trend tonight. Even on the RUC, things are changing for a more digging solution run after run.

Better start shifting that frozen precip line a few more counties to the SE and get the sanding crews ready.

Sounds great! Why are you saying that?

[orangeblood]

With the first cold front coming in faster a little stronger and pushed futher south than NWS forecasted it only makes since that the BIG heavy arctic air will do the same. I know most NWS AFD's are going with a blend of the models for it's updated forecast, but again last February showed just how much the models were wrong, and this looks to be heading in the same direction.

The models, especially the NAM, had the storm pretty well depicted within about 36-48 hours before the event. The NWS office just didn't want to bite and was playing catch up even as the event was already half way over.

[Ntxw]

The models, especially the NAM, had the storm pretty well depicted within about 36-48 hours before the event. The NWS office just didn't want to bite and was playing catch up even as the event was already half way over.

NAM has had one fault tonight though minor. It was the least amplified solution with the heights up north not matching short range RUC. Outlier of the GFS/GGEM/UKMET (I think, hard to tell on that one).

[BigB0882]

GFS has big snow event across the Gulf in about 300 hours. 4 inches or so for almost all of south Louisiana. I hate the GFS for running out so far, just gets my hopes up and then we wont be even close to that situation next run much less 300 hours from now.

[CaptinCrunch]

With the first cold front coming in faster a little stronger and pushed futher south than NWS forecasted it only makes since that the BIG heavy arctic air will do the same. I know most NWS AFD's are going with a blend of the models for it's updated forecast, but again last February showed just how much the models were wrong, and this looks to be heading in the same direction.

The models, especially the NAM, had the storm pretty well depicted within about 36-48 hours before the event. The NWS office just didn't want to bite and was playing catch up even as the event was already half way over.

The models where good to go at 24 out. system slowed way down by that time, that's why we got the 12" rather than 6-8"

[South Texas Storms]

Agreed BigB. I just hope we can get our snow in 96 hours! And hopefully the 300hour snow happens for you guys! Hey, we can hope!