Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

My cold-mongering coworker is conspiring with South Texas Storms to bring some cold Canadian air down here later this month. I'm still not seeing it. Three weeks ago, that cold was going to arrive the first week of February. Hmm, 86 was a little chilly yesterday...

Ahh man here he goes. I swear..I swear if we see a summer like 2011...dadgum heck fire..I hate to curse on this family program, but gosh dang it.

I agree with you on 2011. That was starting to get a tad warm that summer. Had to ride early to avoid the 100+ temps as they were affecting my wife. I do remember on one ride that we hit a brief shower around 1pm after riding about 35-40 miles, which felt very good. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to dampen the ground or wet my skin. I was disappointed that we didn't get more of a shower to cool us down.

12Z GFS does indicate some cold weather will invade east and SE TX while I'm away in New Orleans next week. Lows down to the low 40s in D-FW and Houston. Pretty seasonal temps, though. Warming up by the next weekend. Without any really cold air in western Canada, it'll be hard to get any truly winter weather here in Texas this month.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Mid 50s for a high today definitely feels better than that 80s mess.

[Portastorm]

The Year Without (Hardly Any) Winter continues in south central Texas. Yet again we set record high temps today with 86 at the airport and 87 at Camp Mabry. I believe this may be the third day in a row of record high temps.

You know it's kinda funny in a way ... every crappy winter I think "Oh, it can't be like this next winter" and then "next winter" comes and IT IS as bad or worse than the previous one.

[1900hurricane]

Just enjoying life today.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/829451126797918219

[Texas Snowman]

On this date in 1933, the record low temperature for Denison/Sherman was 0 degrees. In nearby Ardmore (southern Oklahoma), it dipped down to -2 degrees.

Tonight? Better bike riding weather with lows of 28-30.

[gpsnowman]

I have been reading through the Texas Winter 2010-2011 thread. Man that was a fun two week stretch. I am up to the point where we had the snowstorm before the Super Bowl. Awesome times, and it reminded me that in some winters all we need is a 10 day or two week stretch to make winter fun so I can't give up on this winter yet. Late month early March perhaps? We will see.
On a side note, we are still sitting on 11 freezes thus far. 14 is the lowest from a DJF time frame. None in the foreseeable future. Seriously, that is quite pathetic.

[Brent]

I know it's not that cold for February tonight... but after how warm it's been, it's kind of a shock to the system.

Might be close to freezing in the northern DFW suburbs

Looking forward to some rain early next week

[bubba hotep]

I know it's not that cold for February tonight... but after how warm it's been, it's kind of a shock to the system.

Might be close to freezing in the northern DFW suburbs

Looking forward to some rain early next week

I'm expecting a freeze IMBY but it is depressing watching the model runs come in for this next system. If there was any cold air around, we would be talking about a major winter storm. The kicker swinging through the Great Lakes should be sending down a batch of cold air for the SW H5 to grind in as it kicks out.



but instead, we have this nightmare!

[Brent]

Honestly I've given up on seeing anymore snow this winter... I mean maybe I'll be surprised(it is still early February) but I just don't want my hopes up again. At least we can say it DID snow in DFW this year, even if just for a couple hours. I've just started to really notice the later sunsets and of course the 80s haven't helped... I also have plans this summer outside of Texas so there's that lol

[wxman57]

87 at Bush airport today, 86 yesterday. Reminds me a bit of the winter of '85-86 and '95-96, in that both winters had record warm in February and generally mild temps throughout the winter. Cold front is moving through Houston now. That should cool down temps to only a little above normal tomorrow and Friday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Finally picked up another freeze last night/this morning at 28. I'm definitely not looking forward to high 80s this weekend.

[wxman57]

The very cold air remains on the other side of the Pole. Europe is suffering through one of its coldest winters in quite a while. Snow down to southern Spain and across the Greek islands - even down into northern Africa. Meanwhile, yesterday's cold front has dropped our morning low down to 50, which is 5 degrees above normal. This cold will only hang around for 24 hours or so. Great weekend ahead. You have to agree, sunny with a high in the low-mid 70s isn't bad for mid winter. OK, you don't have to agree...

[Tireman4]

The very cold air remains on the other side of the Pole. Europe is suffering through one of its coldest winters in quite a while. Snow down to southern Spain and across the Greek islands - even down into northern Africa. Meanwhile, yesterday's cold front has dropped our morning low down to 50, which is 5 degrees above normal. This cold will only hang around for 24 hours or so. Great weekend ahead. You have to agree, sunny with a high in the low-mid 70s isn't bad for mid winter. OK, you don't have to agree...

Nope, we cold mongerers do not have to agree. Thank you sir.

[Ntxw]

GEFS and EPS doesn't look great but not terrible either. Pacific looks better and there is below normal anomalies on the map. Shorter wavelengths helps, maybe we will get lucky.

[wxman57]

A very odd-looking pattern at 348hrs of the 12z GFS. Giant east coast low, big low over the Rockies, and weak high in the southern Gulf. Not believable.

[Ntxw]

Euro breaks through Pacific jet towards the end of the run. With such a strong jet streak that spells tornado outbreak to me.

[Brent]

GFS has low 40s and rain Monday too... well I guess winter sort of comes back.

However nothing close to a freeze the entire run and that gets us to February 25th...

[1900hurricane]

Euro breaks through Pacific jet towards the end of the run. With such a strong jet streak that spells tornado outbreak to me.

It has certainly caught my eye as well. That pacific jet extension does look to be manifesting itself there. That's my kind of weather.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS has been pretty steadily moving it up in time over the past couple of days and it is now in the D10 free map range. Kind of got that Feb tornado look:



ETA: the Euro Weeklies continue to look active for Texas basically the entire run. Some below normal temps but probably not enough given warmth in the source region. So temp anomalies are probably driven mostly by cloud cover and rain.

[TheProfessor]

hour 160 or so of the Euro(before that ridge builds) has me thinking the east coast could see another big storm. Would need a pretty big shift to the west with that trough coming out of Canada as well as an earlier phase. You guys might want to keep an eye on it. The low on the euro has temps at freezing at the 850 level. If that trends a bit colder you might see snow in heavier precip. If an earlier phase were to occur with a neutral tilted trough then look out! (I'm being a bit selfish because a neg tilt trough in Texas likely means cutter for me so I need it to go neg tilt in Louisiana)